Posted on 09/08/2008 12:34:54 PM PDT by 11th_VA
Sen. John McCain appears to have gotten a nice bounce out of the Republican convention. A USA Today/Gallup poll puts him up 4 percentage points among registered voters and 10 points among likely voters.
If you don't like those numbers, there's a new CNN poll that shows the race a dead heat.
Still, from a parochial perspective, I'm still not seeing anything from the national prognosticators that moves Oregon or Washington out of the likely Democratic column. I think NBC does a good job tracking the electoral landscape, and here's how they put it, post-convention:
Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA (190 electoral votes)
Lean Obama: IA, MN, PA (38 votes)
Toss-up: CO, FL, MI, NV, NM, NH, OH, VA, WI (110 votes)
Lean McCain: AK, GA, IN, MO, MT, NC, ND, SD (64 votes)
Likely McCain: AL, AZ, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, OK, SC, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY (136 votes)
Forget Oregon and Washington. All we need are Ohio and Colorado, and one of these two: NV or NM. Virginia is not going to Obama. NH is probably going to us. And if we pick off MI or PA good for us - icing!
I think we’ll likely see Colorado shift back into the leans McCain column with Sarah’s arrival. My column, that is, not CNN’s measure.
Michigan came out post Convention - Virtual tie.
So when will we get data post convention on Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida ?
Everyone needs to know, that alot of the conservative voters in Oregon and Washington are busy with the harvest.
The convention didn’t reach this group, with a little out reach you could turn these into toss-up states.
Ultimately, I don’t think McCain is going to win these states, but you can cause Obama to waste time and resources out here defending these states.
McCain could make these states too close to call, if he wants to.
With Palin on the ticket, Alaska (AK) only LEANS McCain? Interesting...
Well the last statewide poll I saw, was quinnipiac on 8/26 which showed Fauxbama up 7, 49 to 42, but this was just after the dem convention with no R convention numbers at all. Even then I think these numbers are off, I think the polls are oversampling Philly.
This is a blue dog state, there are a lot of folks here who while registered D are going to be voting for McCain, many for the first time in their lives, others for the first time since Reagan.
There is anger over a lot of Bush policies and mismanagement of the war, but given the candidate put forward by the democrats and the dynamics of this race, I don’t see the “referendum on Bush” using McCain as a surrogate as flying.. Fauxbama is going to have to win, by convincing folks hes the best man for the job, and I don’t see that dog hunting in this state.
I am certain the next poll assuming its post convention will not show a major lead at all for Fauxbama, I’d say you are looking a poll that will show one or the other candidate leading by maybe 2 points.
Well, there were those columns and then there were all those American flags they bought, waved for a few minutes, and then threw away. Adds up.
I think if McCain/Palin show up in Oregon/Washington, they could put them in play for their side. During the primary, McCain ignored Oregon, didn’t even set up an office in the Southern Oregon part. If Palin shows up, they’ll turn out and they’ll vote.
AK, GA, IN, MO, MT, NC, ND, SD Saying these states”lean” McCain is an insult to my intelligence.
Hawaii is not going to McCain. Washington would take a landslide. Connecticut, I doubt it, because Obama was up like 14 there with the last Rasmussen.
Eventually, they will send Sarah to NV, WA, and OR to campaign.
Remember, McCain is a senator. He realizes that winning the WH is not enough...he either needs to retake the House, or make it so close that Nancy can not get a working majority.
Plus, he would like to keep damage in the Senate to a minimum with the idea of retaking it(for those SC nominees) in 2010.
Interesting? Did you mean “B.S.”?
I heard San FRansicko is going wild for Palin, can anyone confirm or deny?
Yes, you’re right. B.S. is a MUCH better description.
I guess I’ll put my forecast out there for the world to throw stones at (got 49/51 states/DC in ‘00, 50/51 in ‘04):
From states that went D in ‘04, I’d bet NH goes R. Wishful thinking on MI (Detroit), OR (left coast), PA (Phily fraud), WI (farm subsidies?).
From states that went R in ‘04, I’d bet IA & NM goes D, and CO, NV, & VA are toss-ups (betting that FL & OH do NOT fall in toss-up category).
The swaps (NH for IA & NM), minus the three toss-ups, leaves D with 260 EVs, R with 251 EVs. Rs MUST take VA and CO, Ds only need either VA or CO (269 EVs is as good as a win for Ds). If VA & NV goes R, and CO goes D, you get 269/269 EVs (House picks Obama in that case). Somehow, NV EVs do not matter.
I’ll forecast those last 3 states in a month, but Ds have decided advantage right now, despite the “glow” from the convention.
ROLL TIDE!
Joe Lieberman campaigning for McCain will change that, I'm thinking.
Obama can count on DC and Massachusetts..the only states carried by George McGovern in 1972....and likely Illinois carried by the legions of dead voters.
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