Posted on 09/12/2008 5:12:09 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Large and dangerous Hurricane Ike approaching the Upper Texas coast. Mandatory evacuations began in earnest Thursday as an estimated one million coastal residents headed inland. There were widespread reports of gas stations running out of fuel.
The National Weather Service posted dire storm surge predictions of 20-25 ft storm surge along the coast and bay heads. Hurricane warnings covered a 400 mile swath of the Gulf of Mexico.
Wholesale gasoline prices spiked 30 percent Thursday, or nearly $1 a gallon, out of fear of what Ike might do.
Public Advisory Updated every 3 hours
Discussion Updated every 6 hours
Buoy data: Western Gulf of Mexico
Houston/Galveston Long Range Radar
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| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Previous Threads:
Hurricane Ike Live Thread II
Hurricane Ike Live Thread I
TS Hanna, Hurricane Ike & TS Josephine [Other than that, the tropics are calm]
Tropical Storms Hanna, Ike and Josephine, TD Gustav (Other than that, the tropics are calm)
Not sure, but if that means 20-ft storm surge, plus wave height, plus high tide, maybe it could be that high.
Good luck to you sir and thanks for your Seabee service I read about.
I have only been in Houston for about 15 minutes when Amtrak stopped there once decades ago.
Did you ever see any pics of the Louisiana coastline after Hurricane Rita?
Lots of little beach communities like Johnson’s Bayou and Holly Beach were just flattened.
The inland communities like Hackberry were extremely water-logged and severely damaged by the winds.
Has anyone confirmed the status of the Kemah DQ and Tookies?
25 feet is the max according to the latest advisory.
What location?
I thought of Perfect Storm too. God help them.
normal tidal flows should not create undo problems ... range between mean high tide and mean low tide at galveston is only 2.4 feet
I think it’s an eye at this point.
sw
Hip boots won’t do, even neck boots won’t be enough.
My daughter lives in an area south west of houston that the eye is going to pass directly over.
She lives in an apartment building, and I am worried that even that won’t be strong enough. She lives on the first floor and I pray that she has enough sense to go up to the second floor when the waters start rising.
Their is a drainage ditch in front of her apartment which overflows onto the street in any heavy rain and they are close enough to the shore and galvaston bay that they WILL get hit by the surge. The high tides aren’t helping things either.
Hip boots won’t do, even neck boots won’t be enough.
My daughter lives in an area south west of houston that the eye is going to pass directly over.
She lives in an apartment building, and I am worried that even that won’t be strong enough. She lives on the first floor and I pray that she has enough sense to go up to the second floor when the waters start rising.
Their is a drainage ditch in front of her apartment which overflows onto the street in any heavy rain and they are close enough to the shore and galvaston bay that they WILL get hit by the surge. The high tides aren’t helping things either.
Yup. And after Katrina, people told stories of water rising so quickly they couldn’t get away, and some people got washed out of their houses and were lost. I think I remember some guy saying he clung to a tree all night.
I always take the easy way out!
;<)
Atmospheric conditions are pretty ideal, a little shear here and there... very little dry air as is somewhat common with northern GOM storms. Storms moving W or WNW at landfall are often more likely to be strengthening or steady state compared to those moving N or NE.
It’s hard to get quick changes in such a big storm. The problem most of the trip across the GOM was the dual wind maximums making it difficult for the core to get really well established... that seems to have resolved a good bit today. Fortunately we are running out of warm water.
Whoever is staying behind better break out the scuba gear.
Just heard the Galveston mayor and she said 40%. Also with a rash of fires breaking out...and the potential of houses being ripped away and natural gas lines damaged (therefore leaking)...the people on Galveston Island will have a “party” they didn’t bargain for.
thx
Looking at the water vapor loop...
Ike is so big and powerful it doesn’t think it needs an eye. It is more a spiral whirling away pushing everything near it out of the way.
Not even really caring about whether it builds or anything. “Disorganized”? “Dying”? or just too big to care about such drivel.
I think it is just too big to care.
I can't remember the name of the town but it is near the Coast between Freeport and Galveston (IIRC)
And what about T-bone Tom’s ?
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