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Hurricane Ike Live Thread III
NOAA/NHC ^ | 12 September 2008 | NOAA/NHC

Posted on 09/12/2008 5:12:09 AM PDT by NautiNurse

Large and dangerous Hurricane Ike approaching the Upper Texas coast. Mandatory evacuations began in earnest Thursday as an estimated one million coastal residents headed inland. There were widespread reports of gas stations running out of fuel.

The National Weather Service posted dire storm surge predictions of 20-25 ft storm surge along the coast and bay heads. Hurricane warnings covered a 400 mile swath of the Gulf of Mexico.

Wholesale gasoline prices spiked 30 percent Thursday, or nearly $1 a gallon, out of fear of what Ike might do.

Public Advisory Updated every 3 hours

Discussion Updated every 6 hours

Buoy data: Western Gulf of Mexico

Forecast Models

Houston/Galveston Long Range Radar
Corpus Christi Long Range Radar
Brownsville Long Range Radar
Lake Charles Long Range Radar

Ike
Single Image Image Loop
Lat/Lon No Lat/Lon Short Long
Visible Visible Visible Visible
Shortwave Shortwave Shortwave Shortwave
Water Vapor Water Vapor Water Vapor Water Vapor
Infrared Channel 4 Enhancements
None None None None
AVN AVN AVN AVN
Dvorak Dvorak Dvorak Dvorak
JSL JSL JSL JSL
RGB RGB RGB RGB
Funktop Funktop Funktop Funktop
Rainbow Rainbow Rainbow Rainbow

Additional Resources:

Navy Tropical Cyclone
Storm Pulse Very cool site

KHOU Houston
ABC 13 News Houston
FOX News Houston

KPLC Lake Charles
KFDM 6 Beaumont/Port Arthur
KKBMT 12 Beaumont
KRIS-TV Corpus Christi
KZTV Corpus Christi

Brazoria County Emergency Management
Galveston County Emergency Management
Chambers Country Emergency Management
Liberty County Emergency Management

Category Wind Speed Barometric Pressure Storm Surge Damage Potential
Tropical
Depression
< 39 mph
< 34 kts
    Minimal
Tropical
Storm
39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
    Minimal
Hurricane 1
(Weak)
74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2
(Moderate)
96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3
(Strong)
111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4
(Very strong)
131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5
(Devastating)
Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Ike Live Thread II
Hurricane Ike Live Thread I
TS Hanna, Hurricane Ike & TS Josephine [Other than that, the tropics are calm]
Tropical Storms Hanna, Ike and Josephine, TD Gustav (Other than that, the tropics are calm)


TOPICS: News/Current Events; US: Arkansas; US: Louisiana; US: Oklahoma; US: Texas
KEYWORDS: arkansas; california; crude; desiel; drill; flordia; florida; galveston; gasoline; gulf; hurricane; ike; louisiana; offshore; oil; oklahoma; prices; refineries; rigs; storm; texas; weather
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To: Mad Dawgg
My mom just called me and told me our friends in Texas are claiming they are getting OFFICIAL Warnings that the Tidal Surge could TOP 50 FEET.

I call BS on that if there's no source. Not a slam ... that's just too high.

1,161 posted on 09/12/2008 2:59:59 PM PDT by Centurion2000 (McCain/Palin 2008 : Palin the Paladin 2012)
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To: Elderberry

press conference. we’re watching KHOU on DirecTV 361. Transportation and Emergency Management and Mayor speaking.


1,162 posted on 09/12/2008 3:00:41 PM PDT by sweet_diane (Fairhope AL with family in League City TX (evacuating to New Braunsfel (sp?))
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To: AFPhys

Fortunately, the kinetic energy associated with Ike has dropped. But it has put a lot of water into motion already and that water motion in turn doesn’t just dissapate in conjuction with the hurricane getting less powerful overall, as they learned with Katrina. I read on Jeff Master’s blog that they had nine feet of surge in NOLA from this. And some low-lying towns in Louisana are flooded.


1,163 posted on 09/12/2008 3:01:17 PM PDT by dirtboy
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To: sweet_diane

Also carried on TXCN.


1,164 posted on 09/12/2008 3:01:56 PM PDT by SouthTexas (Invert the 5-4 and you have no rights.)
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To: DrewsMum

I have been trying to find out. It was on Channel 11. I just walked in to the room when they said it so I didnt hear the whole thing.

Are you doing okay?


1,165 posted on 09/12/2008 3:02:19 PM PDT by Syntyr (Voss and Woodway 77057)
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To: Centurion2000
"I call BS on that if there's no source. Not a slam ... that's just too high."

Apparently she has lost contact with them in the last hour or so so I can't get the source but I am telling Mom the same thing 50 Foot is just waaay too high. I would think we would have to be Cat 5 or above for that kind of surge.

1,166 posted on 09/12/2008 3:03:15 PM PDT by Mad Dawgg ("`Eddies,' said Ford, `in the space-time continuum.' `Ah,' nodded Arthur, `is he? Is he?'")
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To: AFPhys

man and his wife wait to be rescued by Coast Guard in High Island, Texas as Hurricane Ike moves in.(Photo courtesy of Guy Reynolds/ The Dallas Morning News)

1,167 posted on 09/12/2008 3:03:17 PM PDT by BurbankKarl
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To: OC_Steve

They have HLP/Reliant crews on stand by at several staging areas in the BW8/45 area. Pretty sure they are ready in other areas.


1,168 posted on 09/12/2008 3:03:39 PM PDT by Jaded ("Eloquence is no substitute for experience" -Joe Lieberman)
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To: AFPhys; metmom; dirtboy

Well it’s definitely a moot point now as far as surge goes. There is however enough time for some strengthening that could bring some extra wind damage problems to places like Houston.


1,169 posted on 09/12/2008 3:04:39 PM PDT by nwctwx
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To: BurbankKarl

wow, impressive rescue!


1,170 posted on 09/12/2008 3:04:58 PM PDT by tioga (Obama -- I'll make government "COOL")
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To: Mad Dawgg
Apparently she has lost contact with them in the last hour or so so I can't get the source but I am telling Mom the same thing 50 Foot is just waaay too high. I would think we would have to be Cat 5 or above for that kind of surge.

The world record for surge, I believe, is 49 feet or so for a cyclone that hit Australia many years ago.

1,171 posted on 09/12/2008 3:06:04 PM PDT by dirtboy
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To: nwctwx

Yes - we’re running out of warm water -

Unfortunately - we’re running out of water completely.

We’ll be very lucky if it weakens somehow, but I don’t think it will.

High tide at about 6AM for Galveston.


1,172 posted on 09/12/2008 3:06:48 PM PDT by AFPhys ((.Praying for President Bush, our troops, their families, and all my American neighbors..))
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To: nwctwx

Downtown Houston (with that high-profile skyline) is gonna be a terrible mess, I think.

The glass repair companies are gonna have enough work to keep them busy for months!


1,173 posted on 09/12/2008 3:08:29 PM PDT by MplsSteve
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To: Centurion2000

Surge PLUS waves could be 50 feet, though.


1,174 posted on 09/12/2008 3:08:46 PM PDT by AFPhys ((.Praying for President Bush, our troops, their families, and all my American neighbors..))
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To: Jaded

Listening to Houston Fire...sounds like trees are already dropping on lines, etc


1,175 posted on 09/12/2008 3:10:30 PM PDT by BurbankKarl
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Is it better to be in an area where there is a tornado alert or in an area with a tornado watch? There is a tornado watch in my area but a tornado alert in the parish where my friend lives. I was thinking about staying with her tonight but maybe it’s safer where I am. God, I cannot wait until Monday and all this is over.


1,176 posted on 09/12/2008 3:10:34 PM PDT by dougherty (I saw the angel in the marble and carved until I set him free. - Michelangelo)
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To: tioga

great rescue... but do you get the feeling like I do like 9/11 there are going to be a lot of dead rescuers?


1,177 posted on 09/12/2008 3:10:37 PM PDT by AFPhys ((.Praying for President Bush, our troops, their families, and all my American neighbors..))
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To: AFPhys

I don’t think there’s much question now that it will strengthen into landfall. That’s only a few hours though so I don’t know how well that will transfer to the surface.


1,178 posted on 09/12/2008 3:10:45 PM PDT by nwctwx
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To: dirtboy

BUOY 42065 22 miles East of Galveston

60kt. winds, 16 foot seas...


1,179 posted on 09/12/2008 3:10:51 PM PDT by tcrlaf (SARAH PALIN-The American Everywoman (Yes, You Really CAN!))
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To: sweet_diane

not yet


1,180 posted on 09/12/2008 3:12:16 PM PDT by DrewsMum (Out of La Porte, TX now, just waiting and watching and freeping...)
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