The KeyHouseRaces Election Night Open Thread

KeyHouseRaces.com ^ | 2 November 2010 | Interceptpoint

[InterceptPoint]

It's been a fun ride watching our list of Vulnerable Dems grow and the predictions of our six "Experts" move in the GOP direction week after week.

But today is the day when we cash in on all of the hard work. I hope everyone has voted and is ready for the Super Bowl of midterm elections. Grab your popcorn, settle back in that easy chair and watch the Dems squirm while they explain to all of us that it really is just anger over the "Bush Recession" and not Obama's policies that is causing the American public to turn on their party and vote them out of power in the House of Representatives and perhaps in the Senate as well. You can also expect to hear the lame "We just didn't do a good job selling Obamacare" argument ad nauseum on CNN and MSNBC. And you must watch those channels tonight - they are way more fun than Fox on election nights like this.

This thread is focused on the competitive House races that we have been tracking for the better part of a year - the races on the KeyHouseRaces Master List. If you looking for general election news covering the Senate or the Governor races your best bet will be the Election Day 2010 LIVE THREAD.

We will be generating update summaries of the House races that have been called by trustworthy sources and will post those updates on KeyHouseRaces.com and here on FR. We will also be posting on Twitter as we see races that are on our list where the winner has been called.

We will be monitoring FR for our data so we are hoping that Free Republic stays up and that Freepers will be doing their normal good job of posting the latest poll results.

Just for reference, here are the Poll Closing Times via SwingStateProject:

[Impy]

Pomeroy is out.

Allen West is in!

Ike Skelton is out.

Gene Taylor is out!

SD is close.

[randita]

WI-07 and 08- Go to the GOP.
RI-01 Cicilline-D wins.
AR-02 Crawford-R wins 51-44%

ABC predicts GOP will pick up 60-70 seats.

[TexasNative2000]

25 is lost. Canseco leads 23 (49.2% - 44.8%) with 80% reporting.

I'd happily take 2 of 3!

[Hush44]

Onyx,

Combat Veteran for Congress WINS..

Gibson Wins, Murphy Concedes
Speeches from the candidates in the 20th Congressional..
http://www.cbs6albany.com/

[onyx]

((((Hush44))))

THANK YOU FOR REMEMBERING me!

God bless! I am thrilled with *this* win!!!

[TexasNative2000]

TX-27 with 100% reporting:

Farenthold(R) 50,954 (47.9%)
Ortiz(D) 50,155 (47.1%)

TX-23 with 89% reporting:

Canseco(R) 70,699 (50.0%)
Rodriquez(D) 61,828 (43.8%)

:)

[Hush44]

Thank you..for your support

Chris is such a special man, he has already posted (at 1am!) a ‘thank you’ video for us volunteers...what a guy

[Impy]

CT Murphy wins. 2 for 3.

David McKinley has narrowly won WV-1! “Conservative” rat Oliverio rejected!

Utah 2 is dead heat.

Noem won SD.

Rats won in Iowa. Boswell developed a late lead in the polls. IA-1 was the closest.

In NY we gained 5 including Staten Island. The rats held CD 1 and Maruice Hinchy narrowly held on. Owens held NY-23. :(

25 is close.

Lot of good stuff. Some disappointments.

Looks like a major boner in my state’s gubernatorial race.

[Luke21]

Man, this blows. Grijalva and Giffords look like they win AZ 7 and 8. They are in for life. Disgusting.

[AuH2ORepublican]

It will be very difficult for Philpot to end up winning in UT-02 (all the remaining votes are in Salt Lake City).

I'm still holding out hope for NY-25.

Looks like Brady will lose the IL Gov. race—who would have thought that he could lose while Kirk, Dold, Schilling and maybe even Walsh (!) would win? I hope they double-check those Chicago votes, because I smell a rat.

Yes, we only beat 2 of the 3 Murphys, but if Cravaack can beat Oberstar (for the first time all evening, I think he can win) we'll win all three Lake Superior districts.

Looks like Labrador will beat Minnick. If so . . . vindication!

Which House members will we recruit to switch to the GOP? Collin Peterson? Heath Shuler? Ben Chandler (unless Barr can somehow beat him in a recount)? Dan Boren? Jason Altmire? Henry Cuellar? Joe Donnelley? We'd really be scraping the bottom of the barrel, but there aren't many conservative Democrats left.

[AuH2ORepublican]

Forgot about the most obvious target for a switch to the GOP: Mike McIntyre.

[Impy]

Matheson won. :/

It looks the pajama man beat Ortiz down in South Texas!

Come on Cravaack! We lost that seat in 1946, such irony it would be to take it back now.

Koster/Larsen is neck and neck in WA. No gains in Oregon. GOP leads for Governor narrowly.

VA 11 looks like a recount.

PA was nice. Altmire and Critz hung on by their teeth.

West and Scott are the only 2 Black Republicans as Ryan Fraser and Macy (MS1) come up way short, especially Macy.

Sanford Bishop trailed all night but took the late lead. ;/

Harmer and Vidak are in tight races in CA. Loretta Sanchez Won. :( CA sucks.

Rats easily held on to their Maine seats. So much for that. Governor is too close to call with the conservative Republican and and liberal indie.

No gains in CT apparently. They called the rat the winner of the Gov race like 5 hours ago but the Republican is now ahead. Himes is deadlocked but projected the winner.

Why is New England so slow in counting? VT Governor is also tight with plenty of vote left to be counted.

Bill Brady must feel like Tom Dewey. WTF? Every poll had him winning and outpolling Kirk who won. That and Harry Reid put a serious damper on the evening. Sharron Angle, bad primary choice. Casino money (including from “Republicans”) and union thugs helped Reid. A lot of fraud there of course.

Someone got out the Black and union vote in Cook county. I hear my local precinct was flooded late after sparse turnout all day.

There was a controversy here with military ballots being disallowed. We could have used them.

[Impy]

Of course we lost Cao, big time. The Delaware seat. And Djou in Hawaii unfortunately 53-47, I thought he could pull it out. A dirty hippy also took the Hawaii Governorship by a wide margin it looks like.

So we lost 3. 1 less than in 1994. And I think it was 3 lost in 1946. That MN seat, the Denver Colorado seat and 1 in MA. All were won by young rat WW2 vets.

Bod Dold held Kirk’s seat, the only other 1 we could have lost. Obama wannabee Dan Seals=3 time loser. The Myrth York of Illinois.

[Impy]

Giffords is not in for life in that swing district.

[fieldmarshaldj]

We got Bright’s seat in AL with Martha Roby (so maxed out in AL in everything we can win, and essentially ditto in MS, and probably TN, too). New England (except NH) is a total joke, ditto California, which voted like it was 2006/08. They just don’t get it, and it’s about to get that much worse.

[Arthur Wildfire! March]

Thank you for the updates, FRiend. Haha!

[metmom]

Dang. If Hoffman hadn’t run, that district would have gone republican.

[randita]

As of 9:00 AM, I’m seeing the following 11 close races that were on our Master List that are too close to call. All the other seats on the list have been called, to my knowledge. We didn’t pick up any seats on the Tier 2 List or the Long Shot list.

AZ-07, 08, CA-11, 20, CT-04, 05, IL-08 (although Walsh is claiming victory) KY-06, NY-25, VA-11, WA-02.

We cleaned up on the Toss Up races - winning 27 to only 7 for the Dems - almost 80%. So far. That may change a little as the uncalled races shake out.

Do you have any word on the 11 races listed above?

[InterceptPoint]

KeyHouseRaces Master List
District		Seat	Democrat	Winner		Republican	Experts	District
AL	2	Incumbent D	Bobby Bright		WIN	Martha Roby	Toss-Up	AL	2
AR	1	Open D	Chad Causey		WIN	Rick Crawford	Leans R	AR	1
AR	2	Open D	Joyce Elliott		WIN	Tim Griffin	Leans R	AR	2
AZ	1	Incumbent D	Ann Kirkpatrick		WIN	Paul Gosar	Leans R	AZ	1
AZ	5	Incumbent D	Harold Mitchell		WIN	David Schweikert	Toss-Up	AZ	5
AZ	7	Incumbent D	Raúl Grijalva			Ruth McClung	Leans D	AZ	7
AZ	8	Incumbent D	Gabrielle Giffords			Jesse Kelly	Toss-Up	AZ	8
CA	3	Incumbent R	Ami Bera		WIN	Dan Lungren	Leans R	CA	3
CA	11	Incumbent D	Jerry McNerney			David Harmer	Toss-Up	CA	11
CA	20	Incumbent D	Jim Costa			Andy Vidak	Toss-Up	CA	20
CA	47	Incumbent D	Loretta Sanchez	WIN		Van Tran	Leans D	CA	47
CO	3	Incumbent D	John Salazar		WIN	Scott Tipton	Toss-Up	CO	3
CO	4	Incumbent D	Betsy Markey		WIN	Cory Gardner	Leans R	CO	4
CO	7	Incumbent D	Ed Perlmutter	WIN		Ryan Frazier	Likely D	CO	7
CT	4	Incumbent D	Jim Himes	WIN		Dan Debicella	Leans D	CT	4
CT	5	Incumbent D	Christopher Murphy	WIN		Sam Caligiuri	Leans D	CT	5
DE	AL	Open R	John Carney	WIN		Glen Urquhart	Leans D	DE	AL
FL	2	Incumbent D	Allen Boyd		WIN	Steve Southerland	Leans R	FL	2
FL	8	Incumbent D	Alan Grayson		WIN	Daniel Webster	Leans R	FL	8
FL	22	Incumbent D	Ron Klein		WIN	Allen West	Toss-Up	FL	22
FL	24	Incumbent D	Suzanne Kosmas		WIN	Sandy Adams	Leans R	FL	24
FL	25	Open R	Joe Garcia		WIN	David Rivera	Leans R	FL	25
GA	2	Incumbent D	Sanford Bishop	WIN		Mike Keown	Toss-Up	GA	2
GA	8	Incumbent D	Jim Marshall		WIN	Austin Scott	Leans R	GA	8
HI	1	Incumbent R	Colleen Hanabusa	WIN		Charles Djou	Toss-Up	HI	1
IA	1	Incumbent D	Bruce Braley			Ben Lange	Likely D	IA	1
IA	2	Incumbent D	Dave Loebsack	WIN		Marianneette Miller Meeks	Likely D	IA	2
IA	3	Incumbent D	Leonard Boswell	WIN		Brad Zaun	Leans D	IA	3
ID	1	Incumbent D	Walter Minnick		WIN	Raul Labrador	Toss-Up	ID	1
IL	8	Incumbent D	Melissa Bean			Joe Walsh	Likely D	IL	8
IL	10	Open R	Dan Seals		WIN	Bob Dold	Toss-Up	IL	10
IL	11	Incumbent D	Debbie Halvorson		WIN	Adam Kinzinger	Likely R	IL	11
IL	14	Incumbent D	Bill Foster		WIN	Randy Hultgren	Toss-Up	IL	14
IL	17	Incumbent D	Phil Hare		WIN	Bobby Schilling	Toss-Up	IL	17
IN	2	Incumbent D	Joe Donnelly	WIN		Jackie Walorski	Leans D	IN	2
IN	8	Open D	W. Trent Van Haaften		WIN	Dr. Larry Bucshon	Likely R	IN	8
IN	9	Incumbent D	Baron Hill		WIN	Todd Young	Toss-Up	IN	9
KS	3	Open D	Stephene Moore		WIN	Kevin Yoder	Likely R	KS	3
KY	6	Incumbent D	Ben Chandler			Andy Barr	Leans D	KY	6
LA	2	Incumbent R	Cedric Richmond	WIN		Joseph Cao	Leans D	LA	2
LA	3	Open D	Ravi Sangisetty		WIN	Jeff Landry	Likely R	LA	3
MA	4	Incumbent D	Barney Frank	WIN		Sean Bielat	Likely D	MA	4
MA	10	Open D	William Keating	WIN		Jeff Perry	Toss-Up	MA	10
MD	1	Incumbent D	Frank Kratovil		WIN	Andy Harris	Leans R	MD	1
ME	1	Incumbent D	Chellie Pingree	WIN		Dean Scontras	Likely D	ME	1
ME	2	Incumbent D	Mike Michaud	WIN		Jason Levesque	Likely D	ME	2
MI	1	Open D	Gary McDowell		WIN	Dr. Daniel Benishek	Leans R	MI	1
MI	7	Incumbent D	Mark Schauer		WIN	Tim Walberg	Toss-Up	MI	7
MI	9	Incumbent D	Gary Peters	WIN		"Rocky" Raczowski	Leans D	MI	9
MN	1	Incumbent D	Tim Walz	WIN		Randy Demmer	Leans D	MN	1
MN	8	Incumbent D	Jim Oberstar		WIN	Chip Cravaack	Likely D	MN	8
MO	3	Incumbent D	Russ Carnahan	WIN		Ed Martin	Likely D	MO	3
MO	4	Incumbent D	Ike Skelton		WIN	Vicky Hartzler	Toss-Up	MO	4
MS	1	Incumbent D	Travis Childers		WIN	Alan Nunnelee	Toss-Up	MS	1
MS	4	Incumbent D	Gene Taylor		WIN	Steven Palazzo	Toss-Up	MS	4
NC	2	Incumbent D	Bob Etheridge		WIN	Renee Ellmers	Leans D	NC	2
NC	7	Incumbent D	Mike McIntyre	WIN		Ilario Pantano	Leans D	NC	7
NC	8	Incumbent D	Larry Kissell	WIN		Harold Johnson	Toss-Up	NC	8
NC	11	Incumbent D	Heath Shuler	WIN		Jeff Miller	Leans D	NC	4
ND	AL	Incumbent D	Earl Pomeroy		WIN	Rick Berg	Toss-Up	ND	AL
NH	1	Incumbent D	Carol Shea-Porter		WIN	Frank Guinta	Leans R	NH	1
NH	2	Open D	Annie Kuster		WIN	Charlie Bass	Toss-Up	NH	2
NJ	3	Incumbent D	John Adler		WIN	Jon Runyan	Toss-Up	NJ	3
NM	1	Incumbent D	Martin Heinrich			Jon Barela	Leans D	NM	1
NM	2	Incumbent D	Harry Teague		WIN	Steve Pearce	Leans R	NM	2
NV	3	Incumbent D	Dina Titus		WIN	Dr. Joe Heck	Leans R	NV	3
NY	1	Incumbent D	Tim Bishop			Randy Altschuler	Toss-Up	NY	1
NY	13	Incumbent D	Mike McMahon		WIN	Mike Grimm	Leans D	NY	13
NY	19	Incumbent D	John Hall		WIN	Nan Hayworth	Toss-Up	NY	19
NY	20	Incumbent D	Scott Murphy		WIN	Chris Gibson	Toss-Up	NY	20
NY	22	Incumbent D	Maurice Hinchey	WIN		George Phillips	Likely D	NY	22
NY	23	Incumbent D	Bill Owens	WIN		Matt Doheny	Toss-Up	NY	23
NY	24	Incumbent D	Mike Arcuri		WIN	Richard Hanna	Toss-Up	NY	24
NY	25	Incumbent D	Dan Maffei			Ann Marie Buerkle	Leans D	NY	25
NY	29	Open D	Mathew Zeller		WIN	Tom Reed	Likely R	NY	29
OH	1	Incumbent D	Steve Driehaus		WIN	Steve Chabot	Leans R	OH	1
OH	6	Incumbent D	Charlie Wilson		WIN	Bill Johnson	Toss-Up	OH	6
OH	13	Incumbent D	Betty Sutton	WIN		Tom Ganley	Likely D	OH	13
OH	15	Incumbent D	Mary Jo Kilroy		WIN	Steve Stivers	Likely R	OH	15
OH	16	Incumbent D	John Boccieri		WIN	Jim Renacci	Leans R	OH	16
OH	18	Incumbent D	Zach Space		WIN	Bob Gibbs	Toss-Up	OH	18
OR	5	Incumbent D	Kurt Schrader	WIN		Scott Bruun	Toss-Up	OR	5
PA	3	Incumbent D	Kathleen Dahlkemper		WIN	Mike Kelly	Leans R	PA	3
PA	4	Incumbent D	Jason Altmire	WIN		Keith Rothfus	Likely D	PA	4
PA	7	Open D	Bryan Lentz		WIN	Pat Meehan	Toss-Up	PA	7
PA	8	Incumbent D	Patrick Murphy		WIN	Mike Fitzpatrick	Toss-Up	PA	8
PA	10	Incumbent D	Chris Carney		WIN	Tom Marino	Toss-Up	PA	10
PA	11	Incumbent D	Paul Kanjorski		WIN	Lou Barletta	Toss-Up	PA	11
PA	12	Incumbent D	Mark Critz	WIN		Timothy Burns	Leans D	PA	12
PA	17	Incumbent D	Tim Holden	WIN		David Argall	Likely D	PA	17
RI	1	Open D	David Cicilline	WIN		John Loughlin	Leans D	RI	1
SC	5	Incumbent D	John Spratt Jr.		WIN	Mick Mulvaney	Leans R	SC	5
SD	AL	Incumbent D	Stephanie Sandlin		WIN	Kristi Noem	Toss-Up	SD	AL
TN	4	Incumbent D	Lincoln Davis		WIN	Dr. Scott Desjarlais	Toss-Up	TN	4
TN	6	Open D	Brett Carter		WIN	Diane Black	Likely R	TN	6
TN	8	Open D	Roy Herron		WIN	Stephen Fincher	Likely R	TN	8
TX	17	Incumbent D	Chet Edwards		WIN	Bill Flores	Likely R	TX	17
TX	23	Incumbent D	Ciro Rodriguez		WIN	Quico Canseco	Toss-Up	TX	23
TX	27	Incumbent D	Solomon Ortiz		WIN	R. Blake Farenthold	Likely D	TX	27
UT	2	Incumbent D	Jim Matheson			Morgan Philpot	Likely D	UT	2
VA	2	Incumbent D	Glenn Nye		WIN	Scott Rigell	Leans R	VA	2
VA	5	Incumbent D	Tom Perriello		WIN	Robert Hurt	Leans R	VA	5
VA	9	Incumbent D	Rick Boucher		WIN	Morgan Griffith	Leans D	VA	9
VA	11	Incumbent D	Gerald Connolly			Keith Fimian	Leans D	VA	11
WA	2	Incumbent D	Rick Larsen			John Koster	Leans D	WA	2
WA	3	Open D	Denny Heck		WIN	Jaime Herrera	Leans R	WA	3
WA	8	Incumbent R	Suzan DelBene		WIN	Dave Reichert	Leans R	WA	8
WI	3	Incumbent D	Ron Kind	WIN		Dan Kapanke	Leans D	WI	3
WI	7	Open D	Julie Lassa		WIN	Sean Duffy	Leans R	WI	7
WI	8	Incumbent D	Steve Kagen		WIN	Reid Ribble	Leans R	WI	8
WV	1	Open D	Mike Oliverio		WIN	David B. McKinley	Toss-Up	WV	1
WV	3	Incumbent D	Nick Rahall	WIN		"Spike" Maynard	Likely D	WV	3

[Crichton]

I saw on Twitter Jesse Kelly conceded AZ-8. No link to a report though.