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Donald Trump Retakes Lead in GOP Race; Ted Cruz Makes Gains: Poll (tied for 2nd place)
NBC News ^ | Nov 20 2015 | Allison Kopicki and John Lapinski

Posted on 11/20/2015 7:07:02 AM PST by Isara

In the Republican primary race, the newest NBC News/SurveyMonkey online poll shows Donald Trump has the frontrunner spot to himself, with 28% support among Republican and independent voters who lean Republican. Support for Ben Carson, who was tied with Trump in last month's online poll, has fallen off by 8 points and the former neurosurgeon is now tied with Ted Cruz at 18%. Trailing not too far behind is Marco Rubio, at 11%. The next tier of candidates has a lot of catching up to do, with Jeb Bush at 4% and Chris Christie and Carly Fiorina each with 3%.

During the volatile primary season, the attention that is gained from being the lead candidate in the polls can be a mixed blessing. The media tends to shift its focus to those candidates leading the race - and that spotlight can seem especially harsh to those who are newer to the political scene. At the same time, rival candidates are quick to target any apparent or imagined flaw of those in the lead. This is what happened to Ben Carson during the last two weeks, as he came under scrutiny for biographical details in his memoir and criticism for his lack of foreign policy expertise.

Carson and the other Republican candidates still have more than two months before the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary to gain traction. Looking at a number of subgroups may offer some clues as to how the early contests could go. The NBC News/SurveyMonkey poll was conducted nationwide of 5,775 adults, including 2,440 Republican and Republican-leaning voters, which allows for us to look at key voting blocs.

Ben Carson is still the preferred candidate of 25% of white evangelicals, but Donald Trump (23%) and Ted Cruz (22%) have clearly eaten away at what used to be the main pillar of Carson support. Among those who identify as very conservative, Ted Cruz now has the highest level of support, with 40%, overtaking both Carson (15%) and Trump (28%).

Carson has also seen his backing erode among both men and women, and their vote preferences are now being diverted to other candidates.

Among those with college degrees or more, the Republican race is utterly divided, with Trump, Carson, Cruz and Rubio getting nearly equal levels of support. Trump has regained his lead among leaned Republican voters with high school degrees or less. And Ted Cruz has made gains among all these groups in the last month.

Stephanie Psyllos, Hannah Hartig, and Josh Clinton contributed reporting.

The NBC News/SurveyMonkey online poll was conducted from November 15-17, 2015 among a national sample of 5,755 adults aged 18 and over and including a sample of 2,440 Republican voters and independent voters who lean Republican. Respondents for this non-probability survey were selected from the nearly three million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each day. Overall results have an error estimate of plus or minus 1.9 percentage points and the error estimate for the leaned Republican voters is plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. A full description of our methodology and the poll can be found here.

The poll was produced by the Data Analytics Lab of NBC News in conjunction with Penn's Program on Opinion Research and Election Studies with data collection and tabulation conducted by SurveyMonkey.


TOPICS: Breaking News; Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2016polls; cruz; nbcpoll; poll; polls; tcruz; tedcruz; trump
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For those who live by the poll.


1 posted on 11/20/2015 7:07:02 AM PST by Isara
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To: Isara

Presidential Candidates Comparison (Bush vs. Carson vs. Cruz vs. Rubio vs. Trump)

Please click on the pictures at the top of the columns for more details on the ratings of the candidates.

green = Good, RED = Bad, yellow = Mixed Jeb Bush Ben Carson Ted Cruz Marco Rubio Donald Trump
Budget, Spending & Debt yellow yellow green green yellow
Civil Liberties RED green green yellow RED
Education yellow yellow green green green
Energy & Environment RED yellow green green green
Foreign Policy & Defense yellow RED green yellow green
Free Market RED yellow yellow yellow RED
Health Care & Entitlements yellow green green green RED
Immigration RED RED green RED green
Moral Issues yellow yellow green green yellow
Second Amendment yellow yellow green green yellow
Taxes, Economy & Trade yellow yellow green green yellow

More at Conservative Review: https://www.conservativereview.com/2016-presidential-candidates

Note: If you don't like the ratings for any reason, please contact Conservative Review's Editor-in-Chief, "The Great One," Mark Levin. But I have to warn you that you may get this response from him: "GET OFF THE PHONE, YOU BIG DOPE!"

2 posted on 11/20/2015 7:07:55 AM PST by Isara
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To: Isara

“Retakes”?!


3 posted on 11/20/2015 7:07:55 AM PST by albie
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To: Isara

A fairer reading would be there was NO “Carson bump,” that there were only a couple of outlier polls, and that he never really got up to 28%.


4 posted on 11/20/2015 7:08:56 AM PST by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually" (Hendrix))
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To: Isara

The chart is BS


5 posted on 11/20/2015 7:09:27 AM PST by samtheman (I will build a great, great wall on our southern border... - DT)
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To: Isara

like


6 posted on 11/20/2015 7:11:10 AM PST by Principled (...the Supreme Court of the United States favors some laws over others...)
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To: Isara

Please check for articles already posted before posting again.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3362864/posts


7 posted on 11/20/2015 7:11:48 AM PST by McGruff (Rest in Peace in dog heaven Diesel)
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To: Isara

Cruz doing well, now mostly over 10%. But, like every other “rising” candidate, once he gets near 20, he’ll get the full media assassination. So it’s early to judge.


8 posted on 11/20/2015 7:12:31 AM PST by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually" (Hendrix))
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To: samtheman
The chart is BS

Trump supported TARP, auto bailout and Porkulus bill.

Trump's Record on Free-market Issue: (from the Conservative Review)

Trump has a terrible record on free market issues. The only bright spot is the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing, but this glimmer is countermanded by his repeated support for bailing out Wall Street and the auto industry, and increased stimulus spending. Of particular concern is Trump's belief that the government can use eminent domain powers to seize private property in the name of private economic development. This comes as no surprise, given his support for using eminent domain to profit his own company.

Trump supported the Supreme Court’s 2005 decision in Kelo v. City of London, allowing public authorities to seize private land for economic development by private investors; Trump said, “I happen to agree with [the decision] 100 percent.” (National Review)  This is no surprise given Trump’s attempt to use eminent domain in his own line of work. (Institute for Justice)

Trump supported President Obama’s 2009 stimulus, saying: “The word stimulus is probably not used in its fullest…you know, certain of the things that were given weren't really stimulus. They were pork, as we call it, or they were gifts to certain people. But overall, I think he's [President Obama] doing very well. You do need stimulus and you do have to keep the banks alive.” (CNN

Trump supported TARP, saying, "You had to do something to shore up the banks, because ... you would have had a run on every bank." (CNN

Trump supported the 2008 auto bailout, saying, “I think the government should stand behind them 100 percent. You cannot lose the auto companies. They’re great. They make wonderful products.” He also said that the federal government could “easily save the companies.” (Daily Caller

Trump criticized the Federal Reserve’s intervention in the debt market, saying quantitative easing creates “phony numbers” that mislead the marketplace and “will not ultimately benefit the economy. The dollar will go down in value and inflation will start rearing its ugly head.” (CNBC

Donald Trump has a history of using eminent domain to complete business deals. Multiple times Trump has supported the use of government agencies to take possession of homes and businesses for use in his private business plans. Eminent domain seizures are reserved only for public use of property rather than abuse by the government taking property from one individual and giving to another. (Washington Post

Donald Trump has sought and received crony capitalist tax breaks for his commercial properties in New York. These tax breaks, and even an abatement, force the property taxes of other property owners to rise at the expense of the connected. Special treatment for one business or industry over another with the tax code conflicts with free market principles. (National Review

In 2009, Trump supported Barack Obama's call for limits on the pay of executives. (CNN)

9 posted on 11/20/2015 7:12:57 AM PST by Isara
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To: Isara

It’s hard to fathom what evangelicals see in Carson; or what their parents saw in GA Jimmuh in 1976 too.


10 posted on 11/20/2015 7:14:09 AM PST by Theodore R. (Liberals keep winning; so the American people must now be all-liberal all the time.)
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To: Isara

Looks like Bush is going to have to spend the remainder of his money buying voters in Iowa. That’ll be the most important and least expensive place to do that.


11 posted on 11/20/2015 7:15:03 AM PST by xzins (HAVE YOU DONATED TO THE FREEPATHON? https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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To: McGruff
Please check for articles already posted before posting again.

Please compare the titles. They are not exactly the same. I count on the search.

12 posted on 11/20/2015 7:16:29 AM PST by Isara
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To: samtheman
Isara knows the chart is BS, Isara likes to lie.

Let just take a look at Rand Paul, things get heated if we talk Cruz or Trump so let's talk Rand Paul.

Your "chart" gives him a yellow on civil liberties. This is the same Rand Paul that filibustered the Senate over civil liberties and single handily killed the Patriot Act! And he gets a yellow? He also gets a yellow on immigration, when this chart was produced his position on immigration was EXACTLY the same as Ted Cruz who gets a green on immigration, Bull S##t. Yellow on moral issues? Just what are morals issues anyway. Paul is 100% pro-life and that is the biggest most important moral issue by far. Cruz of course again gets a green on moral issues since this "chart" was put together by Cruzs' campaign staff. The cart is bull crap.

13 posted on 11/20/2015 7:18:41 AM PST by jpsb (Believe nothing until it has been officially denied, Otto Von Bismarck)
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To: Isara

GO CRUZ!


14 posted on 11/20/2015 7:18:50 AM PST by erod (Chicago Conservative | Cruz or Lose!)
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To: Isara

The chart gives him a yellow on 2nd amendment.

That is such a bald-faced lie, the rest of it is trash-can liner, as far as I am concerned.

GO TRUMP!


15 posted on 11/20/2015 7:18:53 AM PST by samtheman (I will build a great, great wall on our southern border... - DT)
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To: xzins

Fox News has been bashing Trump all morning. They are relentless.


16 posted on 11/20/2015 7:18:56 AM PST by TTFlyer
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To: samtheman
That is such a bald-faced lie, the rest of it is trash-can liner, as far as I am concerned.

Trump's Record on Civil-liberty Issue: (from the Conservative Review)

"Trump has an inconsistent record when it comes to civil liberties. He supported the NSA mass surveillance program but did not weigh in on the recently passed reforms. Overall, he has avoided commenting on religious freedom, but says he would be an advocate for Christians. Trump supports an individual’s right to make unlimited campaign contributions, but advocates for an end to soft money in politics. Most concerning is Trump’s belief that the government can use eminent domain powers to seize private property for economic benefit for others."

Trump supports the NSA’s metadata collection program, saying, “I support legislation which allows the NSA to hold the bulk metadata. For oversight, I propose that a court, which is available any time on any day, is created to issue individual rulings on when this metadata can be accessed.” This position was identical to the NSA’s mass surveillance program before being reformed by the USA Freedom Act. (Newsweek

Trump has avoided commenting on religious freedom since Indiana passed its Religious Freedom and Restoration Act into law. Instead, he has said that he will be the “greatest representative of the Christians they've had in a long time” if elected president. (Christian Today) (Breitbart)  

Trump believes political soft money should be banned, while individuals should be allowed to make unlimited contributions. "If I were drawing a political cartoon to represent the situation, it would include a very large guy with a huge bag of money. On that bag would be written one word: soft. Soft money is the bane of the current system and we need to get rid of it." (The America We Deserve

Trump supported the Supreme Court’s 2005 decision in Kelo v. City of New London, giving public authorities the right to seize private land for economic development by private investors. Trump said, “I happen to agree with [the decision] 100 percent.” (National Review)

Trump highlighted his support for prosecuting "hate crimes" against homosexuals in his 2000 book, The America We Deserve. “Hate Crime” is a term used to extend special protections for a specific classes and in essence elevates the importance of these classes above others. For example, murder of homosexual or heterosexual should be viewed equally under the law and punished equally. Creating special classes is a liberal tactic used to divide and segment society.(Google Books)

Trump said that Kim Davis should not have been jailed for refusing to issue gay marriage licenses. He also said that she should allow her deputy clerks to do so, but also said that 30 miles away you can get a license so people should do that. He added, "The decision's been made, and that is the law of the land." (CNN)

Much like his stance on eminent domain, Donald Trump has shown a troubling tendency to want to use the power of government to stifle political speech. When the conservative Club for Growth released an advertisement regarding Trump's changing positions on taxation, Trump responded with a legal letter calling for them to cease and desist the advertisements. A chilling move towards the silencing of political speech. (Politico)

Donald Trump attacked SuperPACs (political action committees) in the third Republican debate. By suggesting they should be outlawed he came out against the First Amendment protection of speech, and echoed progressive talking points. (Time)

17 posted on 11/20/2015 7:20:40 AM PST by Isara
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To: Isara

Chris Wallace just named his 3 faves on Fox....

(1)Bush
(2)Graham
(3)Rubio


18 posted on 11/20/2015 7:20:41 AM PST by Chauncey Uppercrust (CRUZ/TRUMP 2016 OR BUST)
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To: Isara
Carson appears to have peaked. Cruz is surging. Trump is still on top, and Rubio is stagnant.

So far, things look good.

19 posted on 11/20/2015 7:21:29 AM PST by PapaBear3625 (Big government is attractive to those who think that THEY will be in control of it.)
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To: TTFlyer

Fox News hates Trump. It’s personal for some reason. He must have taken Murdoch’s table at some restaurant or something.


20 posted on 11/20/2015 7:21:39 AM PST by xzins (HAVE YOU DONATED TO THE FREEPATHON? https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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