Posted on 02/01/2016 2:27:33 PM PST by GilGil
FiveThirtyEight provides two projections for each race: A "polls-only" model that is based solely on public polling within a particular state, and a "polls-plus" model that additionally factors in national polling and endorsements from sitting governors and members of Congress.
Looking at the Monday-night Iowa caucuses, the two models are more or less in agreement about each party's favorites: businessman Donald Trump and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
In the Republican race, the polls-plus model gives Trump a 46% chance of winning, compared with 39% for Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, 14% for Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, and 1% for retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson.
The polls-only model has the same order for the top four candidates but with slightly better odds for the front-runner: Trump is forecast to have a 54% chance of winning, compared with 33% for Cruz, 11% for Rubio, and 1% for Carson.
(Excerpt) Read more at finance.yahoo.com ...
NYT just endorsed her. Like electing the Godfather in a pantsuit.
Only Fox News has Marco Rubio surging
They have been. People must be saying they are switching votes to the news people. Because I don’t think that they could talk about it otherwise. He has been doing good since the debate. Well see. Nobody knows anything until midnight (or close to).
I’m pretty sure it’s only the D side that does the whole coercion thing. I think for the R side it’s speeches then a secret ballot.
Don’t quote me on that, though. Haven’t lived in Iowa for 12 years.
What.
What.
Link me to that video.
lol
this guy spent the last 6 months saying Trump can’t win... now he is predicting he will!
ROFL
But does Nate Silver know about the ground game?
In a way can not blame Nate. He uses history a lot, and there never has been a candidate like Trump in living memory.
I would not call the 8 point difference between 46% and 54% “slight.”
Early information seems to indicate Rubio doing better than expected. Manufactured news?
Guess Nate was off a bit on this one.
Well, Nate Silver’s an idiot.
I guess Nate talks to the same god Trump talks to.
Haha, Nate Silver crashes into the earth, and all the other poll-worshippers!
Nate will be washing the his boyfriend out of his mouth this morning and will be back at it later.
All these people saying Nate Silver is a genius.... Blah blah blah...
In addition to the many pleasures of the last twenty-four hours, it is an additional joy to see Nate Silver be wrong.
Nate needs to find a new schtick.
So much for Silver.
to be fair, Silver wasn’t “wrong”. He stated that each candidate had a certain “chance” to win. He did not state Trump had a 100% chance to win. He did state that Cruz had a 37% chance to win, which he did. That’s how probability works. It’s a chance of a certain outcome, not a guarantee of a certain outcome.
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