Delegate count to date: Cruz 8, Trump 7, Rubio 7, Carson 3, Bush 1, Paul 1
Posted on 02/02/2016 5:56:10 AM PST by Red Steel
The first in a series of daily tracking polls leading up to the New Hampshire primary finds Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders holding huge leads among Granite State voters.
The poll, released Monday by UMass Lowell, found Trump leading the Republican race by 26 percentage points. Sanders leads among Democrats by 31 percentage points.
The poll results are consistent with other recent surveys that have found Sanders and Trump in the lead, although the UMass Lowell poll has both Trump and Sanders leading by larger margins than other recent polls.
New Hampshire will hold the nation's first primary next Tuesday, Feb. 9. The poll results are being released on a day that most political observers are focused on Iowa, where voters are holding the country's first caucuses on Monday.
New Hampshire voters tend to be heavily independent, and the poll results show that those candidates performing well are those who are generally seen as independent from establishment-as-usual politics.
On the Republican side, the businessman Trump has support from 38 percent of likely primary voters, followed by Texas U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, with 12 percent. Former Florida governor Jeb Bush and Ohio Gov. John Kasich are tied at 9 percent, followed by Florida U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio at 8 percent and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie at 7 percent.
New Hampshire Republicans are often more socially liberal than Republicans in other parts of the country, and they tend to vote for more moderate candidates. But the numbers appear to indicate that the moderate vote is split among several candidates, while conservatives have coalesced around Cruz.
The poll found that Trump's support is strongest among men and among voters with lower levels of education. Cruz leads among religious voters.
On the Democratic side, Sanders, an independent U.S. Senator from neighboring Vermont, has support from 61 percent of likely voters. Former secretary of state, U.S. Senator and first lady Hillary Clinton trails with 30 percent of the vote.
Sanders' support is incredibly strong among young Democrats. Of respondents ages 18 to 29, 89 percent preferred Sanders. Clinton polled best among older voters.
UMass Lowell and 7NEWS will be conducting daily tracking polls from Monday through Feb. 8. The results will be posted each morning on the UMass Lowell website.
The poll released Monday surveyed 1,413 voters, including 461 Republican likely voters and 442 Democratic likely voters, between Jan. 29 and Jan. 31. The margin of error is plus or minus 5.1 percent for Republican likely voters and plus or minus 5.3 percent for Democratic likely voters.
A little nostalgia from just 2 days ago before the Iowa caucus.
http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3391158/posts
Trump Leads Cruz by 9 Points in Iowa on the Eve of the Caucuses — 34-25%
Donald Trump 34%
Ted Cruz 25%
Marco Rubio 14%
Ben Carson 7%
Jeb Bush 5%
Rand Paul 3%
John Kasich 3%
Chris Christie 1%
Carly Fiorina 1%
Other 2%
Undecided 3%
It never works that way. Winning in Iowa doesn’t mean winning in New Hampshire or any other state.
Who cares about NH? It only has 23 total delegates that are proportionally awarded. Trump can win in a landslide and still only get 6 or less delegates due to the crowded race and regardless, no republican will win NH in a general election.
Trump can also win SC, NH, AND Nevada and still have far fewer delegates than Cruz when Cruz wins Texas in a landslide. Super Tuesday will be the only time the winning will really matter and I doubt Trump will perform anywhere close to his polls in any of those States.
Delegate count to date: Cruz 8, Trump 7, Rubio 7, Carson 3, Bush 1, Paul 1
Sanders’ support is incredibly strong among young Democrats. Of respondents ages 18 to 29, 89 percent preferred Sanders.
Who did not show up in numbers expected in Iowa. Ha! Not that I care who wins but I think this is kinda funny.
Well the RCP ave had Trump up by 4 and Cruz beat Trump by 4. Wonder how far the NH polls will be off.
Well if true that means Cruz has 16 percent.
I can make the same argument back about who cares about winning Iowa? After a couple of news cycle Iowa is going to be a dimming memory. Texas is another proportional delegate state. The one to watch is Florida. It is the first winner-take-all state, Trump is at 48% in Florida and has a huge lead over everyone else. 99 delegates going to Trump and no one else.
The governor of New York has publicly told conservatives to leave the state!
Weird bringing this up when everyone is talking about the city and this is talking about the state since that is who he represents. In fact he lives in Albany or somewhere upstate.
My predication: Cruz gets a bit too full of himself and winds up coming in 5th in NH, having been defeated by Trump, then Rubio, then Christie, then Kaysick.
“who cares about winning Iowa?”
See what most Trump supporters don’t understand is that Iowa does NOT matter either. What mattered was showing that Cruz could win and Trump was not invincible. Iowa also proved what many Cruz supporters already suspected...that Trump would not perform anywhere close to his poll numbers, which should invalidate all future poll predictions going foward.
Yes, Texas is a proportional state, but if Cruz wins in a landslide then the number of delegates will be huge simply because Texas has so many delegates (155) in comparison to most other states. Cruz could win 80-120 delegates from Texas alone.
Florida will be interesting, but Trump’s issue there is that Rubio and Jeb are both from FL and no doubt have their little stronghold areas to give Trump a run for his money and Trump’s poll lead may all be inflated just like his poll leads going into Iowa.
It was in response to your 'who cares' about New Hampshire. Cruz has got seven days to prove Cruz can win in another state instead of Iowa. Cruz who eked out a victory in Iowa.
Other states Cruz is behind in: MA, MI, CT, SC, NC, GA, AL, TN, OH, IN, and others. I wouldn't get too confident over winning Iowa.
Cruz could win 80-120 delegates from Texas alone.
Perhaps he wins his home state. I don't think that it will be a large lion's share since the race will be close, and I'm not entirely sure Cruz can come away with a win.
“It was in response to your ‘who cares’”
I was agreeing with you. Iowa doesn’t matter, but neither does NH. Cruz doesn’t need to win NH and would be best served by ignoring it all together. Trump needs to win NH by the landslide that his polls are currently showing, at least 10-15%, or else Trump is toast going into the important races. If Trump ekes by Rubio or any other candidate again like he eked by Rubio in Iowa then he should just pack up and go home because Trump’s best chances for a huge victory are in liberal states like NH. If he can’t win there then he won’t be able to win anywhere else consistently.
” I wouldn’t get too confident over winning Iowa. “
As Iowa has proven, I wouldn’t get too confident on the polls that show Trump winning any of the States that you listed. Trump’s poll leads are inflated by 10-20% in every State as demonstrated in Iowa.
Cruz will win Texas in a landslide. Trump is not well liked here and his likability is rapidly declining based on widespread on-the-ground observances. I’ll bet Trump is lucky to break 20% in Texas.
By SAM ROBERTS DECEMBER 31, 2012 5:39 PM December 31, 2012 5:39 pm 4 Comments
However this fiscal cliff thing turns out, President Obama can take heart in one piece of news that broke on Monday: he won the election in New York City.
Nearly two months since Election Day and after the Electoral College met and voted, New York City’s Board of Elections posted official presidential results.
Mr. Obama carried the city with 81 percent of the vote, 1,987,013 to Mitt Romney’s 435,564. He beat Mr. Romney more narrowly on the write-in tally, 146 to 99.
* * * *
NYC is no less of a progressive leftist culture than Boston. And at least Boston's mayor is a RINO, and not an actual active commie. Get over it.
Plenty of other Super Tuesday states that Cruz is way behind. I named a few above tic toc. We’ll see.
Bush has been working NH and even moreso SC; Trump's ground game wasn't quite enough in IA, but he stuck to his own plan and came in second (instead of 17th) while Cruz' hardworking organization came in first and scooped up ONE whole delegate more than either Trump or Rubio, spending a large amount of time and some cash to pull that off. Iowa is a caucus state, most of the rest of the states (including all the large ones) are primary states. New Hampshire avg polling:
Lot of Bernie folks are Bernie only.
If Hilary steals it at the convention it’ll be chaos.
“Plenty of other Super Tuesday states that Cruz is way behind”
Yes, but you’re relying on the inflated Trump polls, which have been proven to be severely inaccurate. If Trump’s 10-20% under performance problem continues then Trump is actually in a dead heat or behind in all of those States.
Inflated? LoL Cruz wins Iowa a caucus state where BS flies, and you think that Trump will lose much more. Good luck with that. It’s not going to happen.
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