What we have here is a Paradigm Shift
Something like a Yuge Tsunami ..(for those in Rio Linda)
Posted on 09/13/2016 12:19:30 AM PDT by NYRepublican72
Post-Hillary's stumble yesterday Trump goes from -0.3% to +3.0%.
Trump: 45.8% (+1.7) Clinton: 42.8% (-1.4)
Trump's net gains is 3.3% in one day.
Look at FiveThirtyEight, the polls plus forecast:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo#plus
By this forecast, Trump is on the verge of getting Florida and Ohio, in which case he would win.
I believe CT is winnable. Trump did a rally here last month. Trump yard signs popping up all over. Our Dem governor got re-elected by only a slim margin two years ago and since we’ve lost General Electric and other industry.
If Crooked one was up 3 points we’d be despondent so at least we can be happy Trump s up three with room to extend. Optimistic but much work needs to be done.
At any rate, I lost faith in this poll as any sort of indicator vs. a current event, when that 10 point jump appeared in African American group for exactly 7 days.
A week from now (or a week and a day), I think we'll see the consequences of what the press calls the Hillary stumble and her "deplorables" remark.
Yep, and they widened the uncertainty region around the spike just like last time. So they’re aware that something is dubious about the AA response. It would be interesting to know what they’re basing that on.
There is no need to change names on the ballot: they could simply announced that all votes for Mrs. Bill will go to Biden in the electoral college.
The pollsters are running out of Dems and Never Trumpers to keep the results skewed for Hillary.
Really, whoever them dems pick is a “poison pill”. The base was not happy with Hillary, but skipping Bernie again will outrage the berntards, picking Biden may be a good choice but implies nothing will change, losing indie support, picking Pocahontas will be a comedy laugh-fest, and picking meeeeeeechele? Again, more of the same but with a really, really bad attitude.
I hope Trump keeps his own security in addition to Secret Service.
What would one more body amount to in the deadly trail of death that follows Hillary?
Yeah, but that is just a calculation.
Another (maybe big) subgroup moved too, the 18-34 age subgroup. The past timing of a jump in that subgroup is not coincident with the jump in African American.
And she can't "disappear" dissenters while she is being "disappeared".
Heck, given how utterly and completely corrupt and evil the DNC is along with their owners, it could even be that illary is being "retired" due to those internal poll numbers. No hospital visits? No medical records? Who knows what they are pumping into her. Maybe it is not supposed to help...
This poll does bounce around. Previously AA support was around13% one day and dropped to 4% overnight. Go figure.
What we have here is a Paradigm Shift
Something like a Yuge Tsunami ..(for those in Rio Linda)
True...but independants wont.
Trump continues to work hard speaking directly to huge rallies.
And his direct appeal to minorities will pay off.
Yeah, probably just a calculation based on sample size or something. I do wonder if they have some fudge factor room in there, though, where they can introduce their own judgement based on factors outside the calculation.
And by sample size I mean the size of the AA sample within the overall sample that day.
The gray band is a "95-percent confidence interval". Whenever figures are lying outside the gray band for a particular group, we are at least 95% confident that the candidate with the highest percentage will win the popular vote among this group.
Based on that, the 35-65 age group must be fairly large, because the gray band is narrow, throughout the life of the poll. Also, the average values are quite stable over time. That indicates that a change in a large number of people in the group has little effect on the average.
And this remark gives me some pleasure ...
Coming soon: subgroup n (sample size) for each data point.
The raw data is available for free, but I haven't registered, which is a prerequisite for access.
Trump ascending and surpassing Hillary will cause a monster tsunami of liberal, elite, progressive, globalist, establishment heads to explode. The ensuing shock wave will be heard around the solar system, temporarily moving planets out of their orbits.
We will then be treated to non stop media and democrat accounts that the end is upon us. Open season on old white guys will be declared permanent. Megyn Kelly will go topless during her show. (Not sure where that last image came from.)
I think the first debate will be the key for many of the undecided voters. It will be must-see TV without a doubt.
I agree with you. I don’t see a landslide for Trump, but a comfortable win. All he has to do is stay on message. Now the debates? What are your thoughts?
Hang on to your money for now though. I would wait for the line to get to four minutes before putting up any cash.
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