Here's a similar map of Nevada from 2012:
Obama got 56% of the vote in one county and less than 51% in another county. He lost all the rest, most of them by margins of more than 18 points.
He won the state by more than six points overall.
Posted on 11/02/2016 10:13:05 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Republican nominee Donald Trump is polling just one percentage point behind Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in Michigan, according to a new poll from Strategic National.
The Michigan statewide poll revealed essentially a dead heat in a state that has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1988. Clinton received 45 percent support, while Trump received 44 percent. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson received 5 percent support, while Green party nominee Jill Stein received 2 percent. Two percent of the respondents said that they were supporting someone else, and another two percent were still undecided....
(Excerpt) Read more at dailycaller.com ...
Here's a similar map of Nevada from 2012:
Obama got 56% of the vote in one county and less than 51% in another county. He lost all the rest, most of them by margins of more than 18 points.
He won the state by more than six points overall.
GOOD to know.
I’d love to see Trump win Michigan!
Pennsylvania is always a disappointment.
The problem then, as it is now, is that many of these polls aren't "weighting" for party at all, so they can't be "overweighted". If you pick your random sample by criteria other than party, and 41% of the people answer the party ID question as "Democrat", that's not weighted, it's just reporting the results.
In Michigan, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire a VERY big deal should be made of hillary having debate questions for at least one Sanders debate. If Sanders supporters decide enmasse to not vote for hillary, I can’t imagine how she wins those states. There are probably other states where the *itch can’t win without Sanders supporters.
This is awesome news.
Worth looking at this:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_U.S._states
It tells you how steep the hill is in various states. By party registration.
Frankly, Colorado/New Hampshire is the best counter to losing PA.
LOL! at how they’re dribbling out the results from the Marquette poll.
https://twitter.com/MULawPoll
I don’t think it’s as good for Hillary as it sounds. Timed to catch the ‘rebound’ from FBI/emails but not the ‘after consideration’ fallout.
If you conduct a poll of a "random sample" of American adults and you end up with a 95%-5% male/female breakdown for whatever reason, then the weighting is way off and it needs to be adjusted to reflect the reality of this split.
No way the ‘L’ candidate gets 5%.
I stick to my prediction that by election day there will not be a single state The Witch leads by double digits, including California. Not saying Trump wins but she does not blow him out anywhere. PA and Michigan I have Trump losing by a close one. Wisconsin I think goes Trump and my NE surprise is write-in Berni voters and Stein carve off a full 15 points off Cankles and Trump wins Vermont. A few shockers as New York or New Jersey takes till 90% votes in to call. Trump loses those states by less than 3%. Trump is up to bat and has like 10 over the plate pitches to hit a single. I think he can.
If your random sample produces results that are obviously wrong, like a 95% female breakdown, that means your sample was flawed. Probably it was too small. You can't correct that by weighting other factors. If the sample was so unreliable in that one metric there's no reason to think any of the others would be valid. You needed a bigger sample.
A poll can certainly be designed to use weighting, and some are. But many of these political polls are simply reporting the party ID results that they collected. They aren't weighted for them and can't be jiggled by adjusting that.
Charlie Gaspirino on Fox Business said a few minutes ago that Trump’s internal polling show him leading by 5-6 in Florida and showing him with a chance at taking Virginia. Now since Gaspirino hates to report any good news about Trump I thought this was significant.
In a race which is essentially tied, the people who would have voted 3rd party will pick one of the two major candidates.
Trump should take MI and do so by a comfortable margin.
Hillary isn’t getting AA turnout... and it was delusional to think she would. Hispanics and Muslim turnout won’t make up for her loss of support among AA, and the fact Trump is winning good segments of HS educated or less white DEMOCRATS.
Hillary should lose PA, WI, MI, OH, IN and IA by not so small margins.
Rasmussen has said women answer the phone 5X more often than men and this has to be weighted away for legitimate measure.
Which means Trump is in reality likely leading by 2-3 pts.
Indeed. Remember the bad old days of 2008 when McCain surrendered Michigan (much to the consternation of Sarah Palin) only a month into the general election campaign?
Well, there will be new auto plants in the US, but not in Michigan. They will be in the south as has been the case. On the other hand, now that Michigan is a right to work state, you never know - which is something I thought would never happen.
I think a lot of union blue collar workers will come out in support of Trump. They will not say so in public. These type of voters are not represented in the polls.
Realize this is a STATE poll... and I don’t know MI’s voter registration breakdown by party, but my bet is the D’s have a sizable advantage at the registration percentages.. probably similar to PA where the state registration is 48D and 38R.
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