The parties have been kicking a lot of dirt on each other recently. Trying to provoke the other, or prove their bonifides for their constituents back home. The Hindis are leaning forward, the Pakis seem to be doing doing their best (e.g.,
launchers,
missles) to dare India to cross the line.
The leftist paradigm allows the weaker Pakis to attack India via proxy without penalty, while India must show "restraint". India appears well past restraint at this stage. Massive buildups along the LoC by India are a logical step to slow militant infiltrations. Now add to that the muslim 'humiliation' issue, so that the Pakis feel obligated to respond to the Indian build-up. If Pakistan (or the terrorists) engage in some provocation too far, India responds by attacking conventionally. Pakistan responds conventionally, but is soon overwhelmed in the
air and at
sea. Some Paki field commander, fearing the worst or about to be over-run, resorts to tactical nukes (Paki nuke protocols are reportedly
very bad - Musharraf claims he has no control, doesn't know the location of
Paki nukes. If they're in the field as
reported, even if under "loyal" commanders, their security is significantly at
risk). India responds in kind, heavily. Total flight time: 3-5 minutes. The World's Shortest and Deadliest War.
If the Pakis simply backed away from the border and put away their toys, world pressure on India to do likewise would be impossible to ignore. However, that would be '
humiliating' to the Pakis ( It's a Muslim Thing, You Wouldn't Understand
© ), so it doesn't seem likely. The US could put its troops in harm's way. That would stop the Hindis, but perversely it would motivate the Paki terrorists. If India pulls back, the Paki fundamentalists would see that as a sign of victory and redouble their efforts. A "Mexican Standoff" of sorts.
Jihadis in Kashmir are the wildcard. Conversations between Washington, New Delhi and Islamabad are meaningless if the terrorists cannot be contained. Paki military middle-management seems
reluctant to shut them down. India is unlikely to be 100% successful in stopping infiltrations. Further attacks in Indian-controlled Kashmir and elsewhere are therefore likely to occur. If sufficiently provocative, they could push New Delhi to act -- either
low-intensity (targeting militant camps along the LoC) or high-intensity (targeting Paki nukes, command structures, Paki high ground, etc).
The
grim conclusion: apparently the Pakis, a textbook failure of a society, immersed in grinding poverty, swimming in a soup of self-pity, self-righteousness, and self-hatred, infected with jihad fevers, sees martyrdom as an 'honorable' out. They'll welcome war -- and risk everything -- because they have nothing to lose. A societal
death wish.
An alternative (and more hopeful) spin on events to date is that Mush is ratcheting up the
rhetoric (and
here) to cover for the crackdown on the jihadis. Mush is whipping the Pakis into a
near-frenzy over the nuke option. Meanwhile, he is cracking down on the bad players. India eventually sees that LoC activities have dropped significantly, so they can pull back. Mush can then claim that India withdrew because they feared Paki nukes. Dangerous posturing, but better than the alternative. The sudden surge in (apparently coordinated) evac orders (e.g.,
UK,
US,
UN,
Israel,
Australia, France, Canada, and New Zealand) suggests that this scenario is low probability (the great powers are firing a diplomatic warning shot). However, (or as a result) Mush has been saying more conciliatory
things (and
here and
here and
here) in the last 48 hours. While India is responding in
kind (and
here), they may not be able to rely on even private US reassurances regarding Paki intentions given Mush's
history. So the area rests on a hair trigger.
I think Mush is trying to
clamp down on the jihadis, with an order to
stop infiltrations (and
here and
here), but he does't have complete cooperation. Hopefully he'll convince the ISI troops to cool it for the 2 weeks that India
demands. We'll see. Are there any wild-eyed
fanatics beyond ISI control out there? Probably. If the jihadis, or even key segments of the Paki military, spin
out of control, all bets are off.
The most disconcerting issue is the question of Paki control over their own nukes. There are multiple reports on loose management of Paki nukes. The sources quoted above are not all considered highly reliable, but some (U.S.) seem to be reasonably reliable. And they do paint a consistent picture. Does Musharraf have control? One hopes so, but given the level of sophistication in that part of the world, it is easy to imagine that fail-safe and C&C procedures are weak, especially with tactical nukes. I find it difficult to imagine that Pakistan has multiple, secure, nuclear-storage facilities, for example. The religious, political, and personal ambitions of the key Paki players makes it an interesting brew.
Finally, there is the hope of a
deus ex machina scenario that isn't public knowledge. Does the US have assets on the ground or in the sky to help pinpoint the location of Paki nukes in real-time? One fervently hopes.
Freegards,
MI
The new moon is June 8, and an earlier statement was that the war would not begin until Sept because of elections and the weather.
When the Brits hauled ass, Kashmir was predominately Muslim, but the reigning majarajah opted for India. If the UN had conducted a plebicite, as they had in other jurisdictions, Kashmir would have gone Paki. The effing UN has caused more conflicts than it has solved. We should get out and kick out of our country.