Israeli expert implicates Iraq in US anthrax attacks

Jerusalem Post ^ | Feb. 11, 2003 | DAVID RUDGE

[yonif]

Accumulated evidence, albeit mostly circumstantial, is nonethless sufficient to implicate Iraq in the wave of Anthrax incidents in America in the aftermath of the September 11 terror attacks, according to former IDF intelligence officer Dr. Danny Shoham.

Mystery still surrounds the affair of letters containing the deadly biological warfare agent that were sent to various addresses in the US over a more than two-month period shortly after the suicide attacks on New York and Washington.

Shoham, a senior researcher at Bar Ilan University's Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, believes that the proximity of the two events is no coincidence and that both were perpetrated by al-Qaida and sponsored by Iraq.

This thesis, published in the latest edition of the authoratitive "International Journal of Intelligence and Counter-Intelligence," is based on reported links between Iraqi intelligence and al-Qaida in Sudan in the early 1990s.

The international terrorist organization's leader Osama bin Laden was reported to have found a temporary safe haven in Sudan at a time that coinicded with reports that significant portions of Iraq's non-conventional weapons assets had also been moved there for "safe-keeping."

"They (bin Laden and Iraqi intelligence) found several common denominators, including inflicting damage and harm on the US and Israel through a variety of means of terror," said Shoham.

"These strong bonds intensified towards the end of the 1990's and reached a peak in the attacks against New York and Washington and the distribution of the Anthrax letters.

"The preparations for both these acts of sabotage were far too meticulous and required such a great deal of complex planning and real-time intelligence that they could not have been conducted by a terrorist organization.

"The resources needed for such operations, including installations for the process of manufacturing Anthrax powder, point to the involvement of a State that sponsors terrorism," he said.

Regarding Iraq being behind the Anthrax letters, Shoham contends that the culmulative evidence is sufficient to form just that conclusion despite its circumstantial nature. This concept could equally apply to findings presented to the UN Security Council last week by Secretary of State Colin Powell to prove the existence of Iraq's weapons of mass destruction and that it is not disarming.

"The Anthrax evidence relates to four categories the earlier conduct by Iraq of non-conventional preparations and operations, Iraqi activities concerned with Anthrax as a biological warfare agent and the relationship of Iraq to the affair of the Anthrax letters," said Shoham.

"In each of these categories there is a critical mass of circumstantial evidence the integration of which is superior to the defense of reasonable doubt.

"In the first category it is known that in the 1980's Iraqi intelligence established a security network for researching and producing non-conventional weapons and made preparations for conducting biological and chemical terrorism. "In terms of operations, it is also known that these agents have been used, for example against the Kurds and against political opponents of the regime of Saddam Hussein. The Iraqis put nerve agents in the food supplies of fugitive Kurds, as well as in the the shells fired at them.

"Investigations into the abortive attack against the Twin Towers in 1993, when explosives as well as cyanide precursors were used, found that this was Iraqi sponsored.

"Regarding the third category, in the extremely diversified range of biological warfare agents developed by the Iraqis since the 1980's, Anthrax was considered in their conception to be the most important for military and sabotage operations."

Shoham said the fact that Iraq has stockpiled Anthrax, has not hesitated to use non-conventional weapons in the past and has an established a network for perpetration bio-chemical terrorism, coupled with its reputed links to al-Qaida, leads to the conclusion it was involved in the Anthrax letters affair.

"A comprehensive analysis of all the relevant information negates the still considered possibility that the operation was a purely American domestic affair," he said.

"Installations, not just a one or two room laboratory, are needed to produce the kind of Anthrax powder that was used in these cases.

"The chances that such installations existed in America but have not been discovered until this day are slim. Similarly, the chances that they were discovered but the information has been kept under wraps and has not been unearthed by the press are also slim."

Shoham contends that in the grey world of intelligence gathering and analysis where verifiable facts are hard to come by, it is often the case that accumulated circumstantial evidence has to suffice.

"Any analytical context that is not merely technical but relies on the power of the mind, ultimately reaches a point where evidence, even if only circumstantial, generally accumulates to a certain level of a critical mass, thus producing a solid conclusion," he says.

"This point is both conceivable and pragmatic. Its validity is both intrinsic and objective, stemming from an inherent plausability. Occasionally, the resulting conclusion is inadequate to propel the practical moves strategic or political which are regarded as it corollaries.

"This may be inevitable due to the very fact that the evidence is circumstantial, but that does not impair the validity even for those conclusions considered to be inferential assessments.

Unavoidably, intelligence analysts often face such challenges."

Asked why the alleged Iraqi links to the Anthrax letters had not been highlighted by the Americans and used to further justify the use of force to disarm Saddam and his regime, Shoham said the fact it had been accepted for publication in a highly reputable American journal did not necessarily mean it was accepted by the US authorities.

"They might, however, have come to this same conclusion but to only reveal the information now would be an admission of failure on the part of the investigators so they might be refraining from publicly dealing with the issue at this stage," Shoham added.

[martianagent]

I have long suspected that Iraq was behind the anthrax attacks. Wish we could prove it beyond doubt.

When your sheep are being killed and there's only one wolf in the neighborhood, you shoot the wolf. That one doesn't take a whole lot of brains...

[OneLoyalAmerican]

Greetings judicial meanz, FReepers, et al:

Expert sources from my hazmat training assert:

(1) Anthrax previously produced by lunatic fringe groups never met weaponized grade of agent. Much like comparing Icarus wings against the space shuttle for aviation.
(2) The 2001 subject agent is a weaponized grade of anthrax. Very few countries in the world are capable of producing this grade of agent.
(3) While no "proof," many skeptics can not dismiss the possibility the subject agent was smuggled into the USA via many means, including diplomatic pouch.

My personal spin. Use the pedophile wannabe Ritter theorem:
Ask Scotty Ritter if Iraq was responsible. If slimy Scotty claims Iraq was not responsible, Iraq most certainly was responsilbe.

[yonif]

The same FBI who said the LAX shooting was not a terrorist attack.

[OneLoyalAmerican]

Greetings martianagent, FReepers, et al:
Speaking of farm animals. Does anyone else wonder how much Mad Cow disease "research" Doktor Germ did?

[polemikos]

From testimony before the House Committee on International Relations, Dec 5, 2001

On the 20th of September, 2001, (before the anthrax attacks were known) an article, attributed to Uday (Saddam's son), appeared in Iraq's Babel newspaper that said:

"A virus would attack the raven [America] and it would respond to antibiotics at first, but in later times, would no longer be controlled by antibiotics."

And people wonder why GW has patience.

[The Great Satan]

From Bob Woodward's account of the National Security Council meeting of October 17, 2001, Bush at War, p. 248:

They turned to the hot topic of anthrax. The powder in the letter mailed to Senator Daschle's office had been found to be potent, prompting officials to suggest its source was likely an expert capable of producing the bacteria in large amounts. Tenet said, "I think it's AQ" – meaning al Qaeda. "I think there's a state sponsor involved. It's too well thought out, the powder's too well refined. It might be Iraq, it might be Russia, it might be a renegade scientist," perhaps from Iraq or Russia. Scooter Libby, Cheney's chief of staff, said he also thought the anthrax attacks were state sponsored. "We've got to be careful on what we say." It was important not to lay it on anyone now. "If we say it's al Qaeda, a state sponsor may feel safe and then hit us thinking they will have a bye because we'll blame it on al Qaeda."

"I'm not going to talk about a state sponsor," Tenet assured them.

"It's good that we don't," said Cheney, "because we're not ready to do anything about it."

Funnily enough, ten days after this NSC meeting, Bob Woodward was peddling the "rightwing extremist" line in the Washington Post: FBI and CIA Suspect Domestic Extremists: Officials Doubt Any Links to Bin Laden.

Hmm. Odd, that. The administration concludes that the anthrax came from al-Qaeda, probably supplied by a state sponsor, but that it is inappropriate to inform the public of that conclusion. Ten days later, Bob Woodward is peddling the right-wing militia story to the public. What could this possibly mean? What could we possibly conclude from this?

[judicial meanz]

I was also fascinated by the West Nile Virus experiments the Iraqis did, coupled with the genesis of the virus being in close proximity to the UN building, where the Iraqis have a diplomatic presence.

I often wonder, even if it is a supposedly wild strain, if it was a test to find out how it would spread. Or, maybe I need a good box of Reynolds wrap..LOL

[Alamo-Girl]

Thank you for your post!

What could this possibly mean? What could we possibly conclude from this?

Indeed. Sounds like a certain reporter was "on board" with the plan right from the beginning.

[bvw]

Can't we believe that Bob Woodward is schizophrenic, or suffers from multiple personality disorder -- please, please, could we believe that instead? Or at least that something like his "deep throat" literary device was used -- that Mr. Cheney did not actually say what Woodward's literary muse enchanted Woodward's inner ear to hear?

[Nick Danger]

Addressing the anthrax to the Democrats makes it more plausible that a "right-wing crazy" was responsible

To think of that requires a degree of sophistication about American politics that I think is negated by the attack on American Media. Like Jim Noble (see Post #10) I think that attack points to a guy who is 'lost in space' as far as understanding American culture is concerned. That's a guy who saw that sign, and thought he was attacking the American Media, or at least some big power in it. That's a clueless foreigner at work. Somebody like that would not understand our politics well enough to know right-wing from Shinola. Besides, didn't Fox News get one of those envelopes? The New York Post did as well. In fact the selection of the Post (as opposed to the Times) is another indicator that the guy didn't know what he was doing. He just saw a row of newsstands and picked one.

[The Great Satan]

Sounds like a certain reporter was "on board" with the plan right from the beginning.

Woodward was also used to promulgate the immensely useful myth of Powell the hand-wringing peacenik dove on Iraq. See the last chapter of Bush at War. Especially viewed from our current vantage point, the whole gambit seems almost laughably transparent. But, like the man said, nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American people.

[Allan]

Bump

[Alamo-Girl]

Thank you for your post!

But, like the man said, nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American people.

So true, so true...

[polemikos]

WASHINGTON ANTHRAX
The Daschle/Leahy anthrax was HIGHLY pure and HIGHLY refined.
William Patrick, a germ-weapon microbiologist said he had learned
details of the federal inquiry from a senior investigator.

DASCHLE ANTHRAX
Patrick described the Daschle anthrax in Nov '01 as:
- high-grade
- free flowing
- electrostatic free
- highly concentrated (a trillion spores per gram)
- remarkably free of extraneous material

Richard Spertzel, microbiologist, former head of Iraqi inspection teams, on Daschle Anthrax in Nov '01:
- weapons quality
- fine particles
- readily dispersible

Al Zelicoff, physician, bio-weapons expert, Sandia on Daschle Anthrax in Nov '01:
- "the keys to the kingdom"

FBI in Nov '01 on Daschle
- "much more refined" than NY media samples
- "more potent" than NY media samples
- "more easily dispersed" than NY media samples

LEAHY ANTHRAX
Per "government sources" in April '02:
- a microscopic fineness not achieved by U.S. bio-weapons experts
- individually coated anthrax spores

[wayoverontheright]

2) Why single out Leahy and Daschle as your only government targets if you're Iraq or Al Queda?

The only channel they get is CNN?

[OneLoyalAmerican]

Greetings judicial meanz, FReepers, et al:
Or, maybe I need a good box of Reynolds wrap..LOL
Get the large, industrial size roll, and share with me too!
Before discovering Free Republic; a news story surfaced where a braggadocios Castro asserted Cuba would deliver bio-terror against the USA, through migratory bird routes.

[Starrgaizr]

Terror would have been magnified by dumping anthrax from the balcony at a basketball game, a movie theater, shopping mall. Letters to politicians was inconsistent with Bin Laden. He does not leave notes. People just die.

On the other hand, Bin Laden and others surely noted how a little anthrax and two losers in a car could terrorize the country. Who needs anthraw, even? Five or six snipers touring the country could cause total havoc.

[eddiespaghetti]

And by itself, the anthrax threats demonstrate conclusively that Saddam was the author of 9/11.

I had read several months ago that two of the 9/11 hijackers went to an emergency room in Florida because one of them had a "skin condition."

Many weeks later, after the anthrax attacks led to many articles about pulmonary anthrax and "skin anthrax," the ER doctor who treated the hijacker said that (he now realized) what the guy had on his skin was skin anthrax.

[Lion's Cub]

Interesting that they had the Israelis release this first. The ace-in-the-hole begins to surface...

[Route66]

'I have always believed Iraq was behind it.'
>>>>>>>>>>>.
I have always believed this, too and think the administration turned their focus to Iraq in earnest after the anthrax was sent here in the US. I suspect they have always known he was behind it, but to publicly state it [since it was an actual use of weapons of mass destruction provided to terrorists by a nation state]would have required a swift and terrible response. That could have brought us to a 'brink of world war' senario very quickly just from the sheer ferocity and the need for everyone to immediately choose sides - perhaps in the heat of political and religious fervor and too quickly for thoughtful response and good judgement.

I think the administration prefered to handle this with a methodical step by step approach that would allow us to better prepare our Clinton scaled back military and weaponry and handle Iraq on our terms and in our own time.

Our administration has talked many times about Saddam being able to hand off WMD to terrorists without leaving personal 'fingerprints' and I think these statements have not been based on hypothethical situations but on one we have already experienced. Someday I am expecting to see evidence that Atta set this up to happen as a follow up to his demise in the bombing. The only reason it was not worse was because these guys did not have a good understanding of how best to deliver the agent they were able to obtain from Iraq. We were very blessed they didn't.

Next time we will probably not be as fortunate and there will be a next time. This is why we WILL soon deal with Saddam no matter what.