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Posts by Freeze923

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  • Rove: Sifting the Numbers for a Winner (Calls it for Romney, 51-48!)

    10/31/2012 9:35:43 PM PDT · 49 of 50
    Freeze923 to paul51

    Romney getting OH,CO,NH (along with VA,NC,FL)

    Watch OR Obama can not get above 47% in any poll in the last month. If the Undecided break for the challenger 4 to 1 that is a 51 to 48 Romney win.

  • How Likely Is an Electoral Vote/Popular Vote Split?

    10/12/2012 11:24:17 PM PDT · 20 of 24
    Freeze923 to Perdogg

    Forget Ohio — As long as CO holds; Romney needs to win 2 of NH (RR ahead 50-46 in latest poll), NV, WI, IA. personally I think they are in that order of likelyhood.

    Obama is as likely to win VA, NC and FL as Romney is of winninig PA & MI

  • Nate Silver: Romney now a 60/40 favorite in Florida after addition of Mason-Dixon poll.

    10/12/2012 2:28:35 AM PDT · 29 of 53
    Freeze923 to goldstategop

    Detroit has lost 25% yes 25% of its population since 2008 there is not as many to over come as in the past.

  • WHAT TO MAKE OF DECLINING DEMOCRATIC REGISTRATION?

    09/29/2012 9:45:19 PM PDT · 25 of 32
    Freeze923 to kabar

    I am from a County in MI that voted for Clinton in 96, Bush in 00 and 04 and obama in 08. Talking to the Democratic HQ last week they said in 08 they sent out over 1300 yard signs this year so far they have had requests for 80!

  • Drop in Ohio voter registration, especially in Dem strongholds, mirrors nationwide trend

    09/27/2012 8:27:15 PM PDT · 41 of 62
    Freeze923 to MacMattico
    People are dropping party affiliation in droves. In our county in Michigan more people have ask to change their party affiliation than any time in recent history. In our county the Democratic affiliation has dropped 23% since 2008, republican has dropped 4% since 2008, independents have increased 22%.

    This is what is skewing to polls, I would not be surprised if the actual voter turn out will be 30D/32R/37I. What is really being under reported in the amount of independents. And if you left the democratic party to be indy do you really think you are still voting for Obama?

    By the way why are we being bombarded with Obama ads in Michigan? I thought it was safely in Obama hands?

  • Congress approves referendum on Puerto Rico future

    04/29/2010 11:37:09 PM PDT · 113 of 129
    Freeze923 to IrishCatholic
    If You had a vote in the Current 50 states that said “Do you like the way government is running the country?” Yes or No

    What do you think that vote would be?

    My guess 10% yes 90% No

    The tea party people would say Hell no, The conservatives would say hell no, the Liberals would say hell no, the progressives would definately say hell no, the Libertarians would say hell no. Senior citizens would say no, young people would say no, rich people would say no, unions would say no, Green Peace would say no, Peta would say no

    They are all saying no for different reasons but in this one instance they would all vote the same.

    Look at congresses approval rating it is at 11% Do you think those 89% all think that congress is doing to much change, expanding government — No Way! 40% of those who think congress is not doing their job correctly think that congress is not moving left fast enough.

    So after voting No on the above question, the next vote would be: “Since America overwhelmingly thinks the government is not being run correctly do you want a dictatorship or a monarchy?”

    That is what this legislation does. It coalesces vastly different think groups around one general question that they can get a consensus on than gives the people a choice that only half the people are interested in, but force the rest to vote for the lesser of two evils that happen to be the way you wanted them to vote all along. It is a classic pollsters trick.

  • Congress approves referendum on Puerto Rico future

    04/29/2010 9:19:08 PM PDT · 102 of 129
    Freeze923 to Chet 99
    You are not going to get 41 Senators to vote against this. The Media will be screaming “racist” to high heaven.

    “You don't like PR, You don't like Hispanics, You don't like democracy! You will not even let Hispanics vote”

    41 senators will never stand up to that media backlash — No Way!

  • Congress approves referendum on Puerto Rico future

    04/29/2010 8:53:33 PM PDT · 95 of 129
    Freeze923 to OrangeHoof
    But the Problem this time is they are removing the Status Quo option.

    The First vote will be “Are You Happy with PR Status with the US?" Yes or No (No will pass with Flying colors)

    The Second vote will ask “Do you want Statehood or Independence?” (They will pick Statehood in a landslide)

    It is like a pollster change the question to get the result he wants. This legislation changes the way the votes are conducted. 1) Do you like how things are going? No of Course! 2) Ok since you do not like how things are going do you want Independence or Statehood?

    Bingo PR will be a state before the end of the year. This legistation Guarentees it!!

  • From the Office of Congressman Bart Stupak

    03/25/2010 9:46:17 PM PDT · 89 of 102
    Freeze923 to Rose in RoseBear

    I would not consider Allen a RINO by any stretch. He currently Represents Mackinac and Chippewa counties in the UP. So Yoopers have Voted for him for years. I have always found him a business man first and a politician second. Given a choice I would take Allan over Stupak any day.

  • From the Office of Congressman Bart Stupak

    03/25/2010 6:41:57 PM PDT · 30 of 102
    Freeze923 to LostInBayport

    Wait on Benishek. Jason Allen is a Republican State Senator who is term limited from his district. He is rumored to be entering the race (they have until May 11th). Allen would be a much more experienced and tougher opponent. Allen has routinely won re-election with 60-70% of the vote. His district is the south half of Stupaks’ district.

  • This Md. Republican thinks Mikulski is vulnerable

    02/28/2010 11:26:06 AM PST · 24 of 27
    Freeze923 to Old Retired Army Guy

    Heard on WTMJ - Milwaukee that they believe Thompson will run againt Fiengold. If He does that is a Toss up state for sure.

  • Election 2010: Indiana Senate

    01/25/2010 2:37:31 PM PST · 19 of 20
    Freeze923 to RockinRight

    You still Have CA

    Boxer is only up by 3 points against Fiorina & 5 against Campbell

    ..and NY

    If Pataki would run against Gilibrand in NY that could be a contest. Siena Poll has Pataki up by +13 over Gilibrand

    ...and WA

    Murray only won 6 years ago with 54% — She is the Queen of earmarks and backroom deals. That is what people are more feed up about than the actual health care bill. If a credible canidate would run against her I think she is very vulnerable.

    I think NY, WA and CA are more likely than CT

    WI is another — Feingold only got 55% last time around.

    Another that that bears watching (but would still be a long shot) is if the Republican Gov of Hawaii (Lingle) would run against Inouye.

    I predict Bayh would lose to Pence or Hostetler. Talking to people in Indiana they feel betrayed by Bayh over health care.

    If MA can go GOP any state could go.

  • Possible Senate battle may arise in Indiana

    01/22/2010 4:32:29 PM PST · 7 of 14
    Freeze923 to Traveler59

    I live in Michigan but my work takes me to Indiana often. In the past Bayh could do no wrong, everybody loved him. In the past 6 months that has switched drastically. One Hoosier I spoke to summed it up by saying, “Bayh has always been a stand up guy, I can’t believe he is going along with this S___ !!(Crap)”

    If Mass. is mad enough to vote Republican, Indiana has got to be at least a toss up state.

    My Sense is if a guy like Pence would run against him — Bayh is toast.

  • FOX News/Rasmussen Poll: Race in Swing States Mirrors 2004 Election

    09/22/2008 9:53:48 PM PDT · 65 of 78
    Freeze923 to proudpapa

    Michigan will lose a few as well — Nevada looking to increase as is Tennesee

  • New Chris Hackett ad (PA 11th District)

    09/18/2008 6:25:57 PM PDT · 17 of 27
    Freeze923 to Onerom99

    Been trying to Find a Poll on Murtha — Has anyone seen one?

  • SENATE 2008 PREDICTIONS- Sept 2008 [50 Days out]

    09/15/2008 7:01:16 PM PDT · 32 of 41
    Freeze923 to RobFromGa

    Got to agree with the others on LA — I read somewhere, that Kennedy was within 5 of Landreau.

    The other one to watch is NM Pearce is closing fast on Udall. (went from 26 down to 7 down in one month). If McCain would carry NM Pearce is close enough to upset Udall.

  • Washington (Rasmussen 9/12/08): Obama 49-47

    09/12/2008 7:47:36 AM PDT · 39 of 74
    Freeze923 to Virginia Ridgerunner

    If Washington is this close Oregon has to be better yet.

    Not a single OR poll since September.

  • Rasmussen 9/12/08: McCain 48-45 (49-46 with/leaners)

    09/12/2008 6:52:57 AM PDT · 17 of 37
    Freeze923 to Huck
    And yet in his last nights poll of Washington Obama by only 2!

    How could that not be considered “leans Dem” — not “likely Dem”

    On Real Clear — Washington has a Obama +2 and an Obama +4 since the september and one obama +12 in July. That July poll is obsolete. If Washington is that close Oregon (which no one has polled in September) has got to better yet!

  • McCain-Palin Ahead in Ohio, Even With a Democrat-Heavy Sample

    09/11/2008 1:51:55 PM PDT · 94 of 105
    Freeze923 to PhilosopherStones

    McCain will not keep Iowa — Down by 15 points.

    Assuming he keeps Fl, OH, NV, VA (all looking good)

    McCain needs one more state:

    It all comes down to — NM, CO, MN, MI, WI, PA

  • Poll: Obama, McCain Split Swing States

    09/10/2008 6:12:22 PM PDT · 28 of 30
    Freeze923 to NMR Guy

    Assuming McCain holds OH, FL, VA, and NV
    (losing IA)

    Then McCain needs to win only one of the following states:

    NM, CO, MN, MI, WI, PA

    Personally I think NM or WI are the most likely.

  • McCain Trails Obama by 6 in NJ

    09/09/2008 7:22:56 AM PDT · 35 of 43
    Freeze923 to TonyInOhio

    The State to watch out for is Wisconsin. Lots of Hockey Moms in Wisconsin. While Grandholm and Killpatrick will hurt Obama in Michigan, there is still a huge population of African Americans in Detroit. Of Which 140% of them vote in every election. Wisconsin doesn’t.

    The other two are Washington and Oregon. While I feel Washington will get tighter I do not think they can over come left-Seattle. Oregon is a better possibility. Alaska has cultural ties to both states. A host of Alaskan commerical fisherman a reside in Washington/Oregon.

    Side note what happened to Iowa? Bush Carried it in ‘04. McCain is losing by 15 points ???

  • McCain Trails Obama by 6 in NJ

    09/09/2008 7:14:23 AM PDT · 33 of 43
    Freeze923 to TonyInOhio
    The State to watch out for is Wisconsin. Lots of Hockey Moms in Wisconsin. While Grandholm and Killpatrick will hurt Obama in Michigan, there is still a huge population of African Americans in Detroit. Of Which 140% of them vote in every election. Wisconsin doesn't. The other two are Washington and Oregon. While I feel Washington will get tighter I do not think they can over come left-Seattle. Oregon is a better possibility. Alaska has cultural ties to both states. A host of Alaskan commerical fisherman a reside in Washington/Oregon. Side note what happened to Iowa? Bush Carried it in '04. McCain is losing by 15 points ???
  • Montana is NOT over!

    11/08/2006 1:27:18 AM PST · 132 of 156
    Freeze923 to PhiKapMom

    Yellowstone is a Republican county, Bush carried in '04. Earlier tonight it was 18,000 to 16,800 -- Burns trailing. About a hour ago the MT Sec of State site wiped out all the votes -- it now says 0 of 69 reporting. It is now reporting Yellowstone is recounting the ballots.

    The other county is flathead has only 30 of 42 reporting burns is carrying 10,000 to 6,800.

  • BAD News For Dems: Hawaii, Which Bush Leads In, ONLY Votes GOP In Republican Re-Election Landslides.

    10/29/2004 7:40:35 AM PDT · 11 of 49
    Freeze923 to Laissez-faire capitalist
    The reason for this is the time zone difference. Because Hawaii knows who won the election during a landslide election by 2pm Hawaii time it depresses the losing parties voters who do not show up, or votes for the "winner" instead of the person they would otherwise have voted. Same thing happens in Alaska -- In 92 Alaskan exit polls showed a huge spike up in perot votes after 3pm by which time it was known Bush Sr. lost. Alaskans still could not stomach voting for Clinton.
  • Election Scorecard - Where the presidential race stands today (Oct 21, 2004)

    10/21/2004 3:34:05 PM PDT · 20 of 23
    Freeze923 to Aloysius88
    That unknown pollster, Mitchell, nailed the 2000 election. They had the exact percentage Gore and Bush in Michigan. If Michigan was so lock up for Kerry why is he bothering to show up here Friday? Makes you wonder if this poll isn't closer to what the Dem's polls are saying also.