"This president has misled us into war, and the war is the wrong war, wrong place, wrong time, and I will lead a better war on terror, a more sensitive war on terror."
Folks, take off 8 points from Kerry and add them to Bush to correct for this 59/41 split, and you'll have Bush leading everywhere except PA. Don't worry.
If he is up 8% of early voters, you have to remember not every state allows it.
Of the states that allow early voting, Bush won them 51 to 47 in 2000 (in the final, total count).
What this means is that Bush is beating his 2000 numbers by 4%...but we don't know how he performed with just early voters in 2000. My guess is they were probably split 50/50 then.
It's simple folks. Bush will get at least 1% more than what he's averaging. So if he's averaging 49%, and with Gallup added in hopefully that will be what it is, he'll get at least 50% on Tuesday. But it will be a 2-3% spread, so 50 to 48 or 50.5 to 48.