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A MAN who played a key role in securing US President George W. Bush's re-election has become the first member of the president's inner circle to publicly break with the adminstration's policies. Matthew Dowd, who was the president's chief campaign strategist in 2004, is insisting that Bush's 2004 rival, Democratic Senator John Kerry, was right on Iraq, The New York Times reported on its website. The newspaper said Mr Dowd now says his faith in Mr Bush was misplaced and that Mr Kerry was correct in calling for a withdrawal from Iraq. In a wide-ranging interview in Austin, Texas, Mr...

It's April Fool's Day, but this ain't funny. The New York Times is all a-twitter about President Bush's former pollster coming out against the Iraq war and saying John Kerry was right. To the drive-by media, this is just one more way to gig Bush. And, of course, unable (for many years now) to conduct serious political analysis, they miss the whole point, which is: how long did Dowd oppose the war and did that opposition shape the "analysis" and polling information he gave the President? Since 2002, at least, many of us here have been arguing that the War...

AUSTIN, Tex., March 29 — In 1999, Matthew Dowd became a symbol of George W. Bush’s early success at positioning himself as a Republican with Democratic appeal. A top strategist for the Texas Democrats who was disappointed by the Bill Clinton years, Mr. Dowd was impressed by the pledge of Mr. Bush, then governor of Texas, to bring a spirit of cooperation to Washington. He switched parties, joined Mr. Bush’s political brain trust and dedicated the next six years to getting him to the Oval Office and keeping him there. In 2004, he was appointed the president’s chief campaign strategist....

LOS ANGELES (AP) - Gin or vodka? Ford or BMW? Perrier or Fiji water? Does the car you buy or what's in your fridge say anything about how you'll vote? Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's campaign thinks so. Employing technology honed in President Bush's 2004 victory, the Republican governor's re-election team has created a massive computer storehouse of data on personal buying habits and voter records to scout up likely supporters. Campaign officials say the operation, run in cooperation with the state Republican Party, is the largest of its kind in any state, at any time. Some strategists believe the consumer information...

The Talk Shows Sunday, September 3rd, 2006 Guests to be interviewed today on major television talk shows: FOX NEWS SUNDAY (Fox Network): Sens. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., Elizabeth Dole, R-N.C., and Arlen Specter, R-Pa.; Washington Redskins coach Joe Gibbs.MEET THE PRESS (NBC): Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa., and his Democratic challenger, state treasurer Robert Casey. FACE THE NATION (CBS): Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean; Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky. THIS WEEK (ABC): Sen. Joseph Biden, D-Del.; Sen. Lincoln Chafee, R-R.I., and his primary challenger, Cranston Mayor Stephen Laffey; actress and animal rights activist Bo Derek. LATE EDITION (CNN) : Rep. Christopher Shays,...

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's top campaign adviser is being paid to provide marketing strategy to AT&T at a time when the governor's office is involved in negotiations on legislation potentially worth billions of dollars to the telecommunications giant. Political consultant Matthew Dowd's involvement with the governor and AT&T at the same time presents, at minimum, the appearance of a conflict of interest, government watchdogs warned. Dowd and his consulting firm are currently assisting San Antonio-based AT&T with the rollout of its U-verse service in Texas. The product is designed to compete with cable TV by sending TV programming and a bundle...

Mention Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger in this heavily Hispanic section of Los Angeles County and the response is almost invariably negative. "I still think he's an actor, and not a good one at that," said Flora Lopez, 56, a supervision aide at a local school. "To me, Arnold hasn't done anything," said America Aguilar, 26, a student at California State University, Fullerton. "He cut the budget for the schools," said Arely Gonzales, a 27-year-old nurse, who pronounced the governor, "Awful." Their harsh views illustrate how far Schwarzenegger's star has fallen among Hispanics since the heady days of the 2003 recall election,...

Civility Is In, Rancor Out on Web Site Begun by Democratic, GOP Strategists A group of political strategists who have spent years firing heavy artillery at each other came together at the Hay-Adams Hotel yesterday, put aside their weapons, decried the polarized state of debate in America and vowed a new approach to peaceful coexistence. Toward that end, they are launching a Web site that they hope will eventually reach 30 million opinion leaders, elevate public discussion on matters from politics to sports to culture and, in the process, make them some money. Mark McKinnon and Matthew Dowd, who were...

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger sharply criticized House Republican leaders Wednesday for calling summer hearings on a proposed immigration overhaul before trying to compromise with the Senate. The Republican governor said public forums across the country were unnecessary because "we know what the facts are." "It would be inexcusable, it would be ludicrous for them to say, 'Well, we can't work it out,'" Schwarzenegger said after a helicopter ride along the Mexican border to see where National Guard troops will soon be deployed. "That's their job - to work it out." His remarks highlighted divisions among Republicans on how to tackle the...

As congressional Republicans wrangled over deportations, detentions and other get-tough measures on illegal immigration, another Republican spent this week hugging newly naturalized immigrants and enthusiastically hosting Mexican President Vicente Fox. Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is charting a different political course from conservatives in Washington this election year, emphasizing tolerance and pragmatism over a hard-line border lockdown. "He is trying to deal with immigration not just from the loud voices on the left and the loud voices on the right, but to find a place where you can deal with the whole breadth of the issue," said Matthew Dowd, Schwarzenegger's chief campaign...

For those who miss the prose of Matthew Dowd, here's his first memo to Team Arnold, for Team Arnold. His line: "...this race is not, as the Democratic operatives and many pundits say, a referendum on Governor Schwarzenegger. Races for governor, especially the governor of the largest State in the Union, are about a choice. This campaign will be a choice between Arnold and the Democratic nominee, a choice between what Arnold has done in office and what the Democratic nominee has done in his career, and most important, a choice between the vision Arnold has for California in the...

Last spring, after the governor all but declared war on union leaders and other Democratic interests, Republicans sat and watched as the unions led an offensive that helped drag down the governor's poll ratings, and doom his special election agenda. Under the watch of new campaign manager Steve Schmidt and communications director Katie Levinson, both fresh off the plane from the Bush White House, Team Schwarzenegger is determined not to make the same mistake again. "For California Republicans who were frustrated last year by the lack of an aggressive response out of the governor's operation, they'll be very pleasantly surprised...

Every new year seems to bring on a new Arnold Schwarzenegger. In his first State of the State address in January 2004, he was the Arnold who would “blow up the boxes” and remake state government. That idea fizzled, and in 2005 he proclaimed the “year of reform.” This notion became the four ballot measures stomped on by the voters in the November special election. So in 2006 Schwarzenegger is back with another “New Arnold,” this time as the great empire builder. JIM WILSON / The New York Times Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, left, shares a laugh with Senate President Pro...

Matthew Dowd, the chief strategist for President Bush's re-election campaign, has been hired by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, according to sources close to the administration. Dowd has been participating in strategy calls, as the governor begins to put together an election campaign, the sources said. The governor also recently hired Steve Schmidt, an adviser to Vice President Dick Cheney, as his campaign manager. Schmidt is working on the Supreme Court confirmation hearings for Samuel Alito and will join Schwarzenegger's campaign when they conclude.

WITH nearly six million Mexicans living illegally in the United States, some Americans, particularly those in border states, are greatly worried about the costs of illegal immigration and have demanded that more be done to stem it. Modern-day "minutemen" patrol the border. Voters pass measures limiting the rights of illegal immigrants, and senators debate legislation to establish guest-worker programs. .... But chances are that there will be a substantial decrease in illegal immigration from Mexico in the next 20 years, and it won't be because of civilian border patrols, laws being passed, pronouncements by politicians, or as some would like,...

WITH nearly six million Mexicans living illegally in the United States, some Americans, particularly those in border states, are greatly worried about the costs of illegal immigration and have demanded that more be done to stem it Snip^ But legislators and government agencies should spend more time and resources addressing the problems of immigrants already here and our direct security needs, and much less time on prescriptive laws aimed at stemming illegal immigration from Mexico. We should be aware of the historic transformations occurring in Mexican society so that we aren't fighting a war that is already ending.

TO: INTERESTED PARTIESFR: MATTHEW DOWDCHIEF STRATEGISTRE: INITIAL STRATEGIC ANALYSISPresident Bush won a historic victory yesterday by defeating John Kerry by more than 3.5 million votes,58.6 million to 55.1 million (51% to 48%) and winning the Electoral College 286 to 252. In doing so, President Bush:• Becomes the first presidential candidate to win more than 50% of the popular vote since 1988.• Received the most votes by any presidential candidate in history - over 58 million, even breaking President Reagan’s 1984 mark of 54.5 million votes.• Becomes the first President re-elected while gaining seats in the House and the Senate since 1936,...

Remarks by Bush-Cheney '04 Campaign Manager Ken Mehlman And Chief Strategist Matthew Dowd in Conference Call Regarding Tomorrow's Debate(title edited for length) ARLINGTON, VA - Bush-Cheney '04 Campaign Manager Ken Mehlman and Chief Strategist Matthew Dowd made the following remarks today in a Bush-Cheney '04 conference call regarding tomorrow's debate:Bush-Cheney '04 Campaign Manager Ken Mehlman:"Tomorrow night's debate provides an important opportunity for Senator Kerry to answer a number of questions that have arisen in the course of these debates and in the course of this campaign by the American people about the issues that will be discussed on national security...

TO:  Bush-Cheney '04 Campaign LeadershipFM:  Matthew Dowd       Chief StrategistRE:  The Democratic convention and its       effect on the presidential race John Kerry becomes the first presidential candidate since 1972 to receive a negative bounce from his convention.  Kerry’s performance in Gallup's post-convention poll is even worse than George McGovern’s in 1972, making it the worst convention bounce in Gallup’s history of presidential campaign polling.  "An examination of Gallup polls in presidential elections since 1976 reveals that a challenger's vice presidential selection and nominating convention can have a dramatic (if often short-lived) effect on the head-to-head poll numbers.  In fact, historical analysis suggests John Kerry should...

Challenger John Kerry, who according to campaign sources is expected to announce his running mate this morning, will lead President Bush by 15 points when the Democratic convention wraps up at the end of July, according to a top Bush campaign adviser. Presidential hopeful Sen. John Kerry reacts after a speech by his wife Monday at an Independence Day celebration in Fox Chapel, Penn. Gerald Herbert, Associated Press In a memo to campaign leadership Monday, Matthew Dowd, Bush's chief strategist, said Kerry is about to benefit from "the average challenger's bounce." "We should expect the race to swing wildly to...