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Longtime Hot Air readers may recall that the first “winner” we ever had in these surveys was Chris Christie. Four years ago he earned 29% of the vote, but my, how things change. Christie now has 1% of the vote and sits well behind everyone except Mike Huckabee, who he ties, Rick Santorum, and Joe Scarborough, who out of over 3000 votes received a grand total of 6. Your current leader? Ted Cruz, who earned 29% of the vote. The top five is rounded out by Scott Walker, Rand Paul, Rick Perry and Mitt Romney. As to issue testing, the...

Today in the Morning Line: •How might tea party vs. establishment storyline play out? •May brings 13 primaries •Laying out the calendar •Your guide to this month’s races Let the elections begin! The midterm election primary season kicks off in earnest Tuesday with elections in North Carolina, Ohio and Indiana. Get this: There are 13 states with primaries in May. It’s always nice when instead of just talking about races, you get results. The overarching question for May: does the tea party still have the juice? In races this month in places like Kentucky and Georgia, “establishment” candidates appear poised...

Tea party challengers to incumbent Republican senators have faded in Kentucky, Kansas and Mississippi, but in two open-seat primaries tea party candidates are showing some signs of life. Sen. Rand Paul (R., Ky.) is headed to North Carolina Monday to campaign for Greg Brannon, a physician who trails the state house speaker and establishment choice, Thom Tillis, in most polling ahead of Tuesday’s primary election. Mr. Paul endorsed Mr. Brannon in October, and his trip to the state for events on the eve of the primary is aimed at keeping Mr. Tillis’s vote tally below 40%. If he doesn’t meet...

Republicans like former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee the most and consider him the best qualified potential GOP presidential candidate among the major contenders. But, as with the rest, they aren't psyched for him to run, according to a new Economist/YouGov.com survey. Some 72 percent of Republicans like Huckabee, a Fox host and conservative populist. That beats Sen. Rand Paul, at 66 percent, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie at 62 percent, and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush at 60 percent. And 51 percent of Republicans also view him as qualified to be president, more than the rest again. But as previous...

In 2010, Sarah Palin endorsed Rand Paul for U.S. Senate in Kentucky. Most other reliable Republican hawks — Dick Cheney, Rudy Giuliani, Rick Santorum — endorsed his primary opponent. Three years later, when Chris Christie criticized Paul’s stand on warrantless surveillance, Palin endorsed him again. “I’m on Team Rand,” she said. “Rand Paul understands, he gets the whole notion of ‘Don’t tread on me, government,’ whereas Chris Christie is for big government and, you know, trying to go along to get along in so many respects.” In a North Carolina congressional primary, however, Sarah Palin is on the side of...

Anyone who loves politics and horse racing is out to try and handicap anything this week. My favorite Saturday, outside any Saturday that Louisiana State University plays football, is the Kentucky Derby. It might not be very fashionable these days to be a horse degenerate, but that’s what I am. Thinking about the up and coming presidential election, I will use some horse racing analogies to talk about 2016. On the Democratic side, there has never been a more non-incumbent prohibitive favorite than Hillary Clinton. Seems to me the best horse analogy would be Secretariat running in the Belmont Stakes...

So our President wants to speed up the process of nominating as many Liberal judges as possible before the Senate goes Red.But,aren't there between 9 and 11 Senators up for re-election this November?,Why would they vote for a Liberal Judge knowing that it will just add to the fire of Obama-Care?.Let's all hope most of these Red-State Senators wake up and not make things worse for us and themselves!,Would anyone be surprised if Prince Harry tries to bribe them again to get their votes? Just like he did in 2010?

Mike Huckabee, Paul Ryan and Jeb Bush are in a dead heat to win the 2016 Iowa Republican caucuses, according to a new poll sponsored by The Daily Caller and Vox Populi Polling. Of the Republicans polled from April 22-24, Huckabee, the former governor of Arkansas, took in 20 percent; Ryan, the Wisconsin congressman and 2012 vice presidential nominee, won 19 percent; and Bush, the former governor of Florida and brother of former President George W. Bush, garnered 18 percent. Other possible Republicans are in single digits in the poll: Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (9 percent); Florida Sen. Marco Rubio...

Texas Republican Sen. Ted Cruz hasn't even completed two years in the United States Senate, which makes his accomplishments of the past few days all the more remarkable. The best way to gauge his stature is by the harsh treatment he routinely receives from the establishment media. A profile in the Wall Street Journal began and ended with accounts of Cruz getting snubbed by his Senate colleagues, the first time on the Capitol subway, the second on an elevator in his office building. According to the Journal's account, on the short rides none of his colleagues even acknowledged his presence....

A devastating new poll finds that Independent voters overwhelmingly back candidates who oppose Obamacare by a 25% margin (54% to 29%). The Fox News poll, released on Monday, also found that the general electorate backs anti-Obamacare candidates by 14% (53% to 39%). Nearly one in five voters (19%) said a congressional candidate's position on Obamacare will be the "single most important factor" driving their voting decision. A full 51% of those polled said 20 years from now Obamacare will be seen as "one of the worst" things President Barack Obama did as president, a sentiment with which even one in...

Ted Cruz is the most popular politician in Texas, according to a Public Policy Polling Texas poll. Cruz has a 47 percent approval rating – better than both Rick Perry and John Cornyn, with only 35 percent who disapprove of him. He also continues to lead the Republican primary field for presidential candidates in Texas with 25 percent willing to support his campaign compared to Jeb Bush at 14 percent and Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul and Rick Perry each at 10 percent. Chris Christie and Paul Ryan received support for a potential presidential campaign from 5 percent of Texans polled,...

Despite all of the negative ads attempting to make Curt Clawson "An Evil Rich Republican",his poll numbers have never budged.All looks well for the honorable Curt Clawson in next weeks election.

Republicans will nominate someone younger than her, and it won't make a difference to young people.Our old colleague Patrick Caldwell has an interesting article up at Mother Jones about the way the Hillary Clinton campaign—or whatever we can call it at this point, since it isn't actually a campaign but it isn't exactly just a bunch of independent people doing their own thing either—is going after college students. I had forgotten how idiotically hostile the Hillary '08 campaign was toward college students in Iowa, but that's just one of innumerable mistakes that one presumes she'll attempt to correct this time...

With the January 2016 Iowa presidential caucuses on the horizon, Hillary Clinton is the far-and-away favorite among self-described Democratic caucus-goers, according to a Suffolk University statewide Iowa poll. And while some Republicans have begun visiting the Hawkeye State, the survey shows no favorites among prospective GOP presidential candidates. Meanwhile, the Suffolk University poll of likely general-election Iowa voters shows Republican Gov. Terry Branstad with a strong advantage heading into the June 3 Republican gubernatorial primary, and he leads the sole Democrat in the race, State Sen. Jack Hatch, by 10 points in a general-election match-up. Branstad, the longest serving governor...

The poll was conducted between March 19 and 23, a week before the White House declared “mission accomplished” on ObamaCare, so maybe it’s simply missing a recent surge in enthusiasm among lefties. The first rule of ACA polling, though, is that the numbers rarely move much no matter what’s going on with the law. They dipped after the Healthcare.gov Chernobyl in October, they bounced back a bit as sign-ups improved, but overall they’ve been steady at around -10 or -12 for years now. Hard to believe that an enrollment milestone will shift that trend markedly and durably, especially with premiums...

The 2014 midterms are looming large, and behind them, the specter of 2016. In the past year, Chris Christie has gone from being the Republican Wunderkind to elephant in the room, and Hilary Clinton is, well, Hilary Clinton. What is the modern-day Republican Party – a Völkisch (ethnic nationalist) political party become religion – to do? Clearly, it’s time for the Republican establishment to start asking themselves, “Where are we going to find a sane candidate?” (or at least sane-seeming, as 2012′s misadventure with Mitt Romney demonstrates). The answer is already in the history books, not that Republicans like to...

It’s a mystery how the chattering class arrives at any conclusion as to the “front-runner” in an election two years away with no declared candidates. First the “front-runner” was New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie; then, according to others, it was Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), despite his obvious unacceptability to a significant segment of Republicans). The polls, if anything, reflect name identification, and in that department former governors Jeb Bush and Mike Huckabee generally lead — in a race neither may enter. That is what being a “front-runner” means on talking-head cable TV shows. More relevant at this stage is figuring...

We recently published a forecast that described the GOP as more likely than not to win the U.S. Senate in November. But our analysis was less bullish on Republicans’ prospects of flipping the seat in Iowa currently held by Democratic Sen. Tom Harkin, who is retiring. There, Democrats appeared to have a strong candidate in Rep. Bruce Braley, who has cleared his primary field. Republicans, meanwhile, face a contentious primary with a number of candidates who have never won races for statewide or federal office. After we published our forecast, the Republican PAC America Rising released a video of Braley,...

With Chris Christie in deep trouble, Republican poobahs are reportedly looking to Jeb Bush to save their party in 2016. The former two-term governor of Florida speaks fluent Spanish, is a convert to Catholicism, and has high name recognition. Jeb could raise millions of dollars over night by just saying “yes” to running. Despite all this, there are strong reasons Republicans should say no to him. 1. His last name is poison. Let’s face it, if Jeb Bush had the last name of Something Else he would have already run for president in 2008 or 2012. According to a recent...

Considering the lies,arrogance and hidden anger of Harry Reid we have been seeing lately,can you just imagine if a reporter were to ask him what his theory/explanation/opinion is of flight 370?,It would be beyond obvious what he would likely say.Just like when Liberals were blaming the GOP and Sarah Palin for all of the mass shootings since 2009.Rush made a comical comment that the Kock Brothers hijacked the plane.Although it is a little odd that the far left hasn't said anything yet regarding the tragedy being they are always the first ones to blame all tragic events on the GOP&Conservatives.