Free Republic

In response to recent volatility in the stock market, rising prices (and declining yields) for U.S. Treasury bonds, and difficulties in the trade relationship between the United States and China, some pundits and politicians are forecasting a recession in the U.S., timed to coincide with the 2020 presidential election. The increasing volume of these forecasts is driven partly by partisan hopes that an economic slowdown gives Democrats the best opportunity to defeat President Trump next year. But hopes of this kind do not make for sound economic forecasts. None of the major institutional forecasters is looking ahead to a recession...

Are the Trump haters trying to cause a recession in the US so the president won’t be re-elected? I’m not saying they are just hoping for a recession. It’s obvious the haters would like that. But are they trying to cause a recession?

WASHINGTON (AP) — A strong majority, 74%, of U.S. business economists appear sufficiently concerned about the risks of some of President Donald Trump's economic policies that they expect a recession in the U.S. by the end of 2021. The economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics, in a report released Monday, mostly didn't share Trump's optimistic outlook for the economy, though they generally saw recession coming later than they did in a survey taken in February. Thirty-four percent of the economists surveyed said they believe a slowing economy will tip into recession in 2021. That's up from 25%...

President Donald Trump is warning of an economic crash if he loses reelection, arguing that even voters who personally dislike him should base their ballots on the nation’s strong growth and low unemployment rate. But privately, Trump is growing increasingly worried the economy won’t look so good come Election Day. The financial markets signaled the possibility of a U.S. recession this week, sending a jolt of anxiety to investors, companies and consumers. That’s on top of concerns over Trump’s plans to impose punishing tariffs on goods from China and word from the United Kingdom and Germany that their economies are...

"Real Time" host Bill Maher doubled down Friday on his desire for the U.S. economy to fall into recession in hopes of blocking a second term for President Trump -- telling his panel of guests any hardship that results would be "very worth" it. "I've been saying for about two years that I hope we have a recession and people get mad at me," said Maher, a multimillionaire who would likely be well insulated from a financial downturn. “I’m just saying we can survive a recession," he continued. "We've had 47 of them. We've had one every time there's a...

If you’ve been gleaning financial headlines, you may be asking, what is this “inversion of the yield curve” thing and why is it so scary? An inverted yield curve marks a point on a chart where short-term investments in U.S. Treasury bonds pay more than long-term ones. When they flip, or invert, it’s widely regarded as a bad sign for the economy. Getting more interest for a short-term than a long-term investment appears to make zero economic sense. Go to any bank and you will likely get a lower interest rate on a 6-month CD than you would on a...

RUSH: Okay. Quick, I have a little miniature pop quiz for you. What was all over the news yesterday that you can’t find a single word about today? Dadadadada. What was that? Recession is it, Mr. Snerdley. As an employee you don’t win anything, but that’s exactly right. The recession was all over the news yesterday. It was all anybody was talking about. It was panic city. It was pack-up-the-kids-and-go-to-New Zealand day. It was get-out-of-America. It was over. We had it. Finally, we’re going to get rid of Trump. Now, not a word. And, in fact, if there is news...

Look at the bright side! Sure, a recession could throw millions of Americans out of work, and shrink retirement portfolios. But an economic downturn would also hurt President Trump in 2020! That was CNN's theme this morning. The 6 am New Day hour led with co-host John Berman trumpeting yesterday's stock market drop. CNN economic analyst Rana Foroohar then said of a recession: "it's here." [snip]Catherine Rampell, a CNN commentator and Washington John Avlon then weighed in to crow: "if the economy goes south, [Trump] is in a world of hurt."Get the rest of the story and view the video...

Wall Street’s most widely watched gauge of the yield curve’s slope, the spread between the 2-year Treasury note yield and the 10-year inverted Wednesday morning, flashing the clearest signal to date that the U.S. is set to face an economic recession, but that doesn’t have to mean doom and gloom for stock investors. The U.S. 2-year Treasury note yield The so-called inversion of the main measure of the yield curve, or a negative spread between short-term and long-term yields, has preceded the last seven recessions.Check out: 5 things investors need to know about an inverted yield curveHowever, history shows that...

U.S. consumers spent more in July than economists expected, the federal government said on Thursday, as retail sales rose 0.7% vs. the 0.3% estimated. Excluding automobile sales, a more volatile component, retail sales rose 1% — double what economists anticipated. Why it matters: Consumers were largely unfazed by the increasing economic uncertainty in July, defying other indicators that point to a global slowdown or recession. The data also comes as Walmart, one of the world’s biggest retailers, posted strong financials for its most recent quarter.

RUSH: The Drive-Bys, they’re incorrigible. Now they are literally trying to once again talk the people of this country into a recession. Now they’re doing it with the inverted yield curve. And the whole problem here is the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve is anti-Trump, is making a mess of the interest rate circumstance. So many people in that town want rid of Trump that they’re going to stop at nothing. It doesn’t matter what damage they do to the economy or the country. And it’s not unprecedented, folks. This has been done before. What was it, back in 2006,...

Stocks plunged on Wednesday after the yield on 30-year Treasurys dropped to a new low and the spread between two- and 10-year Treasurys inverted for the first time since 2007. The inversion of the yield curve compounded concerns of an economic slowdown in the US, as the occurrence has preceded each of the last seven recessions. Disappointing economic data from Germany and China caused the rally in global bonds as investors shifted away from equities toward the relative-safety of long-term treasuries. Visit the Markets Insider homepage for more stories. US stocks plummeted on Wednesday after the spread between two- and 10-year Treasury...

For the first time since the Great Recession, a major signal of impending recession has emerged. The inverted yield curve has sent investors running away from the stock market this morning, and appears to corroborate earlier warnings that the US economy is heading into a major problem: U.S. stocks tumbled at open Wednesday after the inverted yield curve, one of the most reliable indicators of a recession, sparked a new wave of investor fears, erasing the short-lived bump from TuesdayÂ’s trade easing.For the first time since 2007, the yields on short-term U.S. bonds eclipsed those of long-term bonds. This...

Moody's Capital Markets Chief Economist John Lonski on the U.S. trade tensions with China and concerns about the U.S. economic outlook. The yield curve is blaring a recession warning. The spread between the U.S. 2-year and 10-year yields on Wednesday turned negative for the first time since 2007. Such a development has occurred ahead of each and every U.S. recession of the last 50 years, sometimes leading by as much as 24 months.

There is immense confusion surrounding July’s Federal Reserve meeting and the rather insane aftermath that has been spurred on in the trade war. The Fed’s latest rate decision of a mere .25 bps cut was seen as “disappointing”, this was then followed by Jerome Powell’s public statements making it clear that this was only a mid-year “adjustment”, and that it was not the beginning of a rate cutting cycle and certainly not the beginning of renewed QE. This shocked the investment world, which was expecting far more accommodation from the Fed after 7 months of built up expectations that the...

German industry is in the deepest slump since the global financial crisis and threatens to push Europe’s powerhouse economy into full-blown recession. The darkening outlook is forcing the European Central Bank to contemplate ever more perilous measures. The influential Ifo Institute in Munich said its business climate indicator for manufacturing went into “free fall” in July as the delayed damage from global trade conflict takes its toll and confidence wilts. It goes far beyond the woes of the car industry. More than 80pc of Germany’s factories are in outright contraction.

DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach warned investors Tuesday that the U.S. is unequipped for recession as it becomes increasingly strapped by debt. “Any thoughtful person would be concerned,” the so-called “bond king” said in a webcast. “It’s sounding like a pretty bad cocktail of economic risk, and risk to the long end of the bond market.” The billionaire investor said the United States is “out of tools” to gin up the economy during the next recession. He pointed to the Federal Reserve’s decision to leave interest rates steady and a dovish turnaround that boosted stocks this year. The Fed signaled it...

Wouldn’t it be horrible if the number of Americans without a job was higher today than it was during the Great Recession of 2008 and 2009? Well, that is actually true. As you will see below, nearly 102 million Americans do not have a job right now, and at no point during the last recession did that number ever surpass the 100 million mark. Of course the U.S. population has grown a bit over the last decade, but as you will see below, the percentage of the population that is engaged in the labor force is only slightly above the...

Recession talk flared up on Friday as the 10-year Treasury yield tumbled below that of the 3-month Treasury. While this signal has a spot-on track record in predicting a recession, there are reasons to take it with a grain of salt now. But another key economic indicator also flashed a worrying sign. The breakout of copper prices last month signaled that 2019 might be like 2016. That year saw the global economy rebound and the Dow Jones start a new leg to much greater heights. Yet that breakout failed on Friday, casting doubt on whether a new global upturn is...

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin startled financial analysts, bankers and economists Sunday by issuing an unusual statement declaring that the nation's six largest banks had ample credit to extend to American businesses and households...Two Trump advisers, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said the calls would stoke unnecessary alarm. "No one thought we were at crisis level," one of these people said. "It's going to create more of an issue than we had already." Mnuchin and the president had a call on Saturday to talk about how to reassure the markets. Aides said that Trump knew the Powell story hurt the...