Posted on 04/21/2008 5:25:44 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2008 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, John McCain would receive 245 Electoral Votes and the Democratic Presidential candidate would receive 293 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of John McCain winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then John McCain should get 247.86 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/7/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/31/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/24/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/17/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/10/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/3/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/25/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/18/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/11/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/4/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/7/2008
It always strikes me how very few states even project out as 55/45, or closer. About 45 states - at least - are currently projected as a complete blowout for a Dim or A Repub.
Switch Ohio and New Mexico and the Republicans take the cake. Seems very possible. Pennsylvania may even be possible after the Democratic primary.
To quote Thomas Sowell, “Senator John McCain could never convince me to vote for him. Only Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama can cause me to vote for McCain.”
Pennsylvania may even be possible after the Democratic primary.
LOL! No. Its been two decades...
I just can’t see either dem winning, and especially snobama. Typcial bitter clinging whites will have vote in droves for snobama in order for that to happen. If they do, then they really do deserve the moron label.
Kerry was going to win by a landslide early in 2004.
I'm going to watch the Pennsylvania primary results with great interest.
All things considered, McCain is doing surprisingly well at this stage.
Charlie Cook has the following:
Solid McCain: AL, AK, GA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MS, MT, NE, NC, ND, OK, SC, SD, TX, UT, WY
Likely McCain: AZ, AR, TN, VA, WV
Lean McCain: CO, MO
Toss Up: FL, IA, NV, NH, NM, OH, WI
Lean DEM: MI, MN, OR, PA
Likely DEM: DE, ME, WA
Solid DEM: CA, CT, DC, HI, IL, MD, MA, NJ, NY, RI, VT
Shouldn’t that “solid Dem” Catefgory be renamed..
“Complete A**holes”
works for me!
Shouldn’t that “solid Dem” Category be renamed..
“Complete A**holes”
works for me!
The frost belt is the key...Bush lost both Michigan and Minnesota by about 3% in 2000 and 2004, and lost Wisconsin by like 5,000 votes in both years too.
These states together account for a total of 39 electoral votes. Maybe this will be the year that it happens...
Great animation!
sorry for the double post!
PIMF!
Hey now, this isn’t the Daily Kos. :-P
I live in Maine..McCain odds are much higher than 20%, especially after the “cling” comments...I’d put it around 40%. Also Maine splits its electoral votes, chance of McCain winning the leans conservative 2nd Distict - about 80%. Odds are good he’ll get ONE electoral vote from Maine
True - MN in particular is in play.
All depends on Juan’s running mate - this analysis has him pitted against either Democrat - Barack Hussein Obama would be much harder to lose to than Klinton.
I have an odd feeling one solidly Dem state (CT/NJ/MI/MN ?) could go GOP in ‘08.
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