Posted on 11/02/2018 7:28:13 PM PDT by 11th_VA
Voter turnout for Tuesdays midterm elections may be affected as a potent storm unleashes rain, strong winds and potentially violent thunderstorms from the midwestern to southern United States.
According to research, weather influences some voters' response when making a decision to head to the polls.
"Weather was found to be, on average, nearly 20 percent of the change in voter turnout based on our analysis," according to AccuWeather Data Scientist and Meteorologist Tim Loftus.
"Democrats are more weather sensitive, when compared to Republicans, and among the most weather-sensitive were African-Americans, those 65 and older and 18- to 24-year-olds," he said.
Below is a breakdown of the weather expected on Election Day for the states with key races. Several of these states are in the path of the impending strong autumn storm:
“I also have no transportation at the moment, but will walk the 1-1/2 miles to the polls ...”
Uber and Lyft have a program for discounted or free rides to the polls in some areas. Check and see if you’re in one.
I don’t think this is one of those out-of-patriotism or because they’re good-hearted, because they’re targeting “underserved areas”, which is a dog-whistle for Dem urban poor, but a free ride is a free ride.
Thank you.
Thanks for the concern, but I don’t need any help. The nearest bar is just a 1/4 mile from the polls, so guess where I am going to go after voting? It’s all good. Uber getting home might be a good idea though. haha
And another hurricane is set to hit central Mexico early next week!
Hi, Ive been lurking your comments because I love crunching numbers from early votes as well. I predicted 48 out of 50 states on another forum - the other 2 were MI and WI which came up as a tie in my model so I gave to Hillary.
Ive loved Methos8s spreadsheet and analyzed it.
A few questions that have came up - which way do Is vote? To answer that question, I did a little digging of my own. I took the early votes from 2014 and 2016 by county in FL, and assigned an estimated I percentage support for Trump by taking Trumps final margin of victory for that county and multiplied that by the early vote totals, assigning all the Rs to the Trump side, and dividing the leftover number by the I early vote turnout.
These are the graphs I came up with, feel free to verify and reuse them. https://m.imgur.com/a/I4977Z6 As you can see, I support tends to lean with the countys overall leaning. I also made 2 sets of graphs based on total turnout, not just I turnout, showing that counties that support Trump are coming out in force.
Anyway what the graphs say is were comfortably smack between 2014 and 2016 in redness and Is probably leaning that way.
Wait, thats not all! We have a few outlier counties in terms of high turnout relative to 2014. Heres what I found: FL passed a law recently that all universities must have early voting stations. Alachua is a college county, so no surprise that. Also, Broward, Orange, and Osceola had the largest influx of Hurricane Maria refugees - but Osceola is the only majority Puerto Rico county. Take these counties out and Bay, and thats a more accurate trendline for where the rest of the nation that isnt so affected by hurricanes or college voting laws may be going. Is might be just as red as 2014!
A few questions popped up elsewhere. Biggest one is an article that explained OH Democrats are way outperforming 2014. Well, remember how OH registration works - because the primary hadnt happened in 2014, most OH democrats in 2014 wouldve been unaffiliated!
Hope this helps you!
A bit late but sympathy for your loss. I Ike dogs and have gone through 2 losses of them in my life. Not fun at all. Those dogs covered 30 years of my life. They are family.
Great for us, but how does one burn a beer?
My sympathies.
I trust your dogs are full of vigor and vim this weekend?
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See!
Even God hates Dems!
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That was a day that will go down in infamy!
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Some would say Trump is manipulating
the weather, but there’s no forecasted
storms over Oregon, or California.
Urban Dictionary: Bud
+++++
2)A bundle of marijuana that you can smoke in a joint or in a pipe
+++++
.
What’s so funny?
Have you ever lost your furry friend?
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Rove is a rectum sucker!
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Id literally crawl over broken glass to vote Tuesday. Have walked through a line of thugs before to vote (they parted to let me through so nothing happened.) A little weather isnt going to stop me.
Let the other side make excuses.
Get your ass to the polls.
Good idea, but I am healthy enough to where I can do the walk without any problems.
Im not but will anyway.
Pretty much.
The over-zealous girl Dobe either broke or fractured a toe in her rage against the goat but is otherwise fine.
It’s raining *again* so they all have the twitchies.
:)
Thank you so much.
And people ask why I rarely post anymore.
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