Posted on 09/28/2022 12:30:30 PM PDT by ChicagoConservative27
What has happened to Texas that 46% embrace a candidate who would destroy Texas.
Q poll means Abbott is up around 16 points easily
The Hill is a maniacal left wing site and a daily staple at Free Republic.
“It’s a Quinnipiac poll. In 2018, they had DeSantis and Scott both losing by 7 on the eve of the election. Both of them won.”
In 2018, Quinnipiac had Cruz over Beto by 5, and Cruz only won by 2.8.
In 2018 Quinnipiac had Abbott over Valdez by 19, and he only won by 13.
So in Texas, Quinnipiac has had a history of overestimating Republican advantages. Exception being when Trump is on the ballot, which pumps up GOP turnout.
Nice try, but it’s a fail. Q had Trump and Biden TIED in Texas in 2020. Trump won by 6.
In the aftermath of 2020, there were 5 pollsters with a very statistically significant Democrat bias, across the board, not just in any one state.
Economist/YouGov, CNBC/Change Research, NBC News/Wall Street Journal, USC Dornslife, and Quinnipiac.
Surprise, these same polls are consistent left outliers on the RCP averages.
But hey, let’s test how much you believe the Q poll.
I’ll bet that Abbott wins by more than 6. Loser leaves FR for good.
You game? Do you trust Q that much? Let’s see if you do.
Well, when you import ILLEGALS for 30+ years that happens. They breed like rabbits.
Quinnipiac, add at least 4 points to Abbott.
soon to be 3-time loser Beto needs to move to another state, because he will never be elected here!
“Maybe allowing all those migrants from CA”
I’m one of those migrants (refugees?) and will vote Abbott and Paxton, and any other conservative running. But then again I’m in Burnet county that went 80% Trump in 2020. Moved here for that reason among many others.
Yes I gather that and that is the only segment of the US population that is above replacement rates.
I’ve seen exactly two Beto signs this time around, and one said “Beto. Fake Mexican. Real Pendejo.” LOL
The A Hole from El Paso
Yea need to double that poll. Abbot wins by double digits.
Saw a rating of the pollsters last few cycles... Quinnipiac was literally at the bottom of the list of about 15 pollsters... their average margin of error is about 6 points... and always favors... well you know where the bias is...
You are soooo lucky...
I’m in a county that went 80% Biden...
Beto The Fake Mexican is only 6 points behind? REALLY - sure thing - go away.
Not sure if you have reading problems, but I literally mentioned they underestimated Trump. Were you too stupid or too lazy to even finish reading what I wrote? I’ll take the bet, but you have to tell me how many points Qunnipiac is cheating the pill by, and that’s the margin Abbott has to beat.
They underestimated Republicans across the board, not just Trump, and they’ve done it in multiple elections.
In 2016, Quinnipiac had a D bias of +4.2
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17457289.2018.1441850
In 2020, Quinnipiac had the largest D bias of ANY pollster.
https://costaspanagopoulos.com/files/costas-panagopoulos/files/panagopoulos_2021_psq_poll_accuracy.pdf
It wasn’t limited to Trump. They got things wrong across the board.
Their final poll in Maine had Gideon +12, Collins won by 8.6. That’s a 20 point miss.
Their final poll in Iowa had Ernst +2, she won by 6.6.
Their final poll in Texas had Cornyn +6, he won by 10.
Their other big misses, Georgia November Warnock +19 (it was only +7), McConnell +12 (he won by 19.6), Tie in SC, Graham won by 10.3.
The average miss was nearly double digits ACROSS THE BOARD.
You can stamp your feet all that you want, but you won’t change the data.
But since you were dumb enough to take the bet, I’ll spot you the points.
Abbott wins by at least a 53-43 spread. If he does, you can’t ever post on FR again.
blah blah blah.You are so dumb I don’t know why I’m bothering to reply.
Your retarded “bold” prediction is Abbott wins 53%? That’s literally the Q poll number. With +/- 2.7% margin of error. So agree with the poll and are too dumb to know it. Q is saying Abbott could get 55.7%. You tell me Q has a 4 point bias, which would good luck with that, and good bye!
Conryn was on the ballot with Trump, so he over performed. Abbott and Cruz didn’t benefit from Trump and underperformed. Neither Cruz nor Abbott are particularly loved by MAGA texans so they aren’t going to go out of their way to vote like they did for Trump. Texas also had 310k people move into the state in 2021.
You are trying to duck out of the bet, coward.
I said “at least” a 53-43% which is a 10 point spread.
I’m confident it will be bigger than that, but you asked for the spread and I gave it to you.
So if Abbott wins by 10, you can’t ever post on FR again.
Don’t try to flip the script now. You took the open bet, I gave you the terms.
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