9 Observations and Outcomes From the Wisconsin Waterloo

conservativereview.com ^ | April 06, 2016 | Daniel Horowitz

[Berlin_Freeper]

This race began with 17 candidates, but because of the unprecedented coverage of Donald Trump it really has been a one-man race for most of the election.  There has been a false choice between whether people love Trump or hate him – just by virtue of the media coverage alone.  Given the divided field and the lack of coverage, Ted Cruz lacked the ability to stand out and coalesce people behind a positive conservative, anti-establishment message. 

Tonight’s sweeping victory in Wisconsin proves team Cruz’s original thesis: as long as this is a two-man race and as long as Cruz can get his message out, Trump can be defeated in almost every state.  In many ways, this could be the Waterloo of the election.

Here are some observations and outcomes from this race:

1. Cruz Consolidates Support: Wisconsin is the first real primary after the other non-Trump candidates (except for Kasich) exited the race.  Arizona had a lot of votes already banked from early voting, and Utah is an anomaly, given the Mormon dislike for Trump.  Wisconsin demonstrates the Cruz thesis that he can win in a two-man race and even won big with Kasich dragging him down, even in an open primary.  He will likely come away with 48% of the total vote and 54% of the registered Republican voters.
   
   
2. Winning Trump Demographics: Many pundits are saying Cruz was expected to win in the Badger State, but most polls had Trump ahead 30-19 before Cruz began campaigning there.  This state is an older white demographic with a large share that is not college educated – tailor made for Trump.  In fact, there are so few Republicans in the state under 30 – Cruz’s best age group – that the exit polls didn’t even register them as a data point.  Yet, Cruz won across the board with every important demographic displayed in the exit polls.  He won non-college educated voters and the lowest income voters.  Cruz also won every age group including voters over 65 – Trump’s best demographic – by 11 points. 
   
   
3. No Gender Gap: For all the talk about the gender gap, Cruz’s win was perfectly uniform among men and women, winning both by 13%.  Again, this proves that it’s more than just galvanizing anti-Trump demographics.  When Cruz is actually able to focus on a state for a full week or two and get out his message to the voters, it’s a different race.  For the first time ever, Cruz not only crushed Trump among those who voted based on “shared values” but tied Trump among those who wanted the candidate who would bring the most change to Washington.
   
   
4. Cruz Combining Conservative Coalition: Some Trump supporters are suggesting that Cruz is just becoming the de facto establishment candidate and winning their coalition.  In reality, Cruz won the “very conservative” voters by a whopping 65-28 margin and increased his reach to “somewhat conservative” voters, winning them by 11 points.  Trump only won self-described moderates.  Also, Cruz won a resounding victory even though just 65% of voters were actually registered Republicans.  Cruz tied Trump among non-Republican voters and won the conservative bastion in the Milwaukee suburbs by 40 points.  He won Republican voters by 22 points.  It’s clear that he would have swept all of the districts had this been a closed primary. 
   
   
5. Republicans Can Win Wisconsin in the Fall: Republicans have not won Wisconsin since 1984, but they have an excellent shot at it this fall.  Hillary will still likely be the nominee but she lost the state to Bernie Sanders and the combined GOP turnout swamped the Democrat turnout.  If Cruz is the nominee, he can place some of the Midwestern states Hillary lost (yes, including Iowa) in play. 
   
   
6. Kasich is an Embarrassment: Kasich came in dead last in almost every early state and barely competed on Super Tuesday so he can play in the Midwest.  He parked himself in Michigan for weeks but came in behind Cruz, even though Cruz barely spent a penny in the state.  Now, in another Midwest state, Kasich couldn’t crack 15%.  Will the media finally ask him tough questions? 
   
   
7. Cruz Momentum: Trump will wind up going a full month without a victory.  After winning in North Dakota, Cruz will likely sweep Colorado on Saturday and the remainder of Wyoming delegates the following Saturday – all before New York.  While New York and the Northeast are presumed to be Cruz’s weakest areas, there are some promising signs for him there.  All of those contests (except for Rhode Island, which is irrelevant because it’s small and proportional) are closed primaries, and with Cruz performing well in wealthier suburbs, even in open primaries, he certainly has a shot to peel off districts in New York.  Trump will barely net anything out of Connecticut and Rhode Island. Cruz has an excellent chance to win Maryland and Delaware and an open shot at winning a lot of delegates in Pennsylvania.  Time will tell whether Wisconsin gives him momentum to win statewide in Pennsylvania.   However, with many Kasich voters realizing they are wasting their vote, enough defections can flip the state to Cruz.  PPP found that Kasich voters in Wisconsin preferred Cruz over Trump 51-19. 
   
   
8. Path Forward: Almost everything after New York and the rest of the northeast primaries on the following week should be solid for Cruz.  He should win Indiana, Nebraska, Oregon, and Washington.  Trump has the inside track in only one state between April 26 and the big June 7 finale: West Virginia.  Then, on June 7, Cruz will easily sweep South Dakota and Montana (both winner-take-all) and New Mexico (proportional). [see spreadsheet below] With Kasich becoming weaker and weaker, Cruz should have no problem winning California as well; the question is how many districts Trump can win in the south and east and some urban areas.  New Jersey is more of a Trump state, especially with an open primary, but if Cruz indeed wins all these states and Kasich becomes a non-factor, he will definitely be able to put the Garden State in play. 
   
   
9. Winning a Mandate: Trump will not win 1237 delegates before the convention.  The question is whether Cruz can catch him in a plurality or get close to it and win a mandate.  It’s quite obvious that Trump’s victories during the first half of the race were a result of unprecedented name ID and a divided field.  He would have lost most states had this been a one-on-one contest, which tells you that the majority of voters don’t want him.  Thus, even if Cruz comes up short of a plurality, as long as he wins the aforementioned states, the Texas Senator will have a moral mandate when he likely wins a delegate race on the second ballot.  Trump will argue that it doesn’t reflect the will of the voters, but it’s clear that 60% of voters in most states don’t want him.  He only won in previous states because of Rubio, and the remaining wins come as a result of Kasich staying in the race or non-Republican voters.   
   

Pasted below is my updated spreadsheet showing Cruz’s most realistic path to winning a plurality of delegates.  It will be a steep climb to win that many districts in New York, but even if he falls short, Trump can easily be kept below 1100 delegates.  Between the unbound delegates and Rubio’s pile, it’s not out of the question for Cruz to overtake Trump on the first ballot, especially if he wins a solid mandate on June 7 to close out the primaries.

[Lurkinanloomin]

At the end of April it will be impossible for Cruz to get to 1237 and he will keep going because the establishment only wants him to stop Trump.
They have no intention of letting him be the nominee.

[dware]

Now he has to deal with a convention of delegates, and he has no chance there. Nada, zip, none.

Which means y'all can pat yourselves on the back for getting Hitlery elected, and for the ugly that will come from that. Good job! Glad to see y'all hate America so much.

[Rashputin]

Yup, it’s called a runoff, runoff the candidate with the majority of the votes and substitute someone the GOPe can control.

[HamiltonJay]

While the district delegates are officially at large, polling of them shows 2/3 of those running will vote their district. Assuming this is true, its safe to assume a relatively even split of the remaining 1/3 will be Trump or Cruz dedicated regardless of the district vote, State level delegates are bound by winner....

I am well aware of what is going on in PA... Quinn is a nice guy, but I would not bet my farm on his cheerleading. His reported “surge” is basically Trump is up 6, Cruz is up 10... and Trump is still up 9 overall in polling since last month.... And another poll that he ignored shows Trump at 47 to Cruz’s 29.... So I wouldn’t hold my breath of PA miraculously keeping Cruz from being unable to reach 1237 delegates in the primaries after 4/26.

[MHGinTN]

The media, being the whores that they are, answering to their globalist pimps, will not allow THAT reality to stand. They have been tasked with pushing the meme so the convenjtion is deadlocked.

[kjam22]

So maybe it could be said... at some date (April 26th or whenever) Cruz will be unable to obtain 1,237 delegates from the primaries. No one will argue with that, and it's a bit of a no brainer statement..... But the fact is he is not eliminated from getting 1,237 delegates until someone else does.

Words have meanings....even if we choose to use them incorrectly just because we chose too... :)

No one could hypothesize that Trumpy has run the type of race that has made him not mathematically, but in all probability "unlikely" to ever receive 1,237 delegates. No one can win a convention of delegates running the type of race he has run.

[kjam22]

LOL... I like that.

[HamiltonJay]

GOPE machine is what helped Cruz win in WI.. unfortunately for Cruz, no such machine exists in the rest of the race...

[kjam22]

I think Cruz is going to et the nomination. I mean, if I was going to bet money on it.... that’s where I would bet. It will be a contested convention. He’ll win it there. He’ll be the next republican to get a majority of delegates.... just like all of the other nominees before him. Man... Trumpy will be in full melt down, as will FR. I mean the servers here might burn up from all of the weeping and gnashing of teeth among his followers.... :)

[VanDeKoik]

There is spin.

Then there is delusion.

[kjam22]

Trumpy's campaign has been like the number 4 hitter coming to bat in the bottom of the 9th with two outs and runners on and trailing by 1 run. You know he's going to swing for the fence. If knocks it out of the park, he'll get girl and the prize. If he hits the long flyball and it's caught... he just loses.

Trumpy has been swinging for the fences. (1,237 delegates during the primary). It's either he gets that, or he just hits the long flyball for the easy out. It's looking more like it's going to be the long flyball easy out. Don't you think?

[dfwgator]

Trump is the Hail Mary Pass.

[kjam22]

Yep...

[John Valentine]

You like toast with your crow? Or perhaps crow with your toast? You have perhaps a couple months to develop a taste for it, but be sure of this: it’s on your menu.

[Cboldt]

-- So maybe it could be said... at some date (April 26th or whenever) Cruz will be unable to obtain 1,237 delegates from the primaries. --

That is hypothetically true.

At any rate, the point of my earlier remark was an attempt to prevent an argument that was based on a failure to notice mixed-definitions of "mathematically excluded."

-- But the fact is he is not eliminated from getting 1,237 delegates until someone else does. --

Under the conventional definition, it is possible for all candidates to become "mathematically excluded," unless a race has only two candidates from the get-go.

The conventional definition looks at the number of delegates a candidate has, and adds to that the number of delegates yet to be selected. If that total is less than 1237, then the candidate cannot get to 1237.

[Fundamentally Fair]

Then there is delusion.

I'll defer to your obvious expertise in that area.

[John Valentine]

My analysis says your assumptions are way off. Trump goes to the convention with no more than 1100 delegates, maybe less than 1000. Cruz ends up with over 1000, maybe more than 1100. In short, Trump and Cruz wind up with very comparable pledged delegate counts, but unlikely for either to be over 1237.

This is where Cruz ACTUAL (as opposed to pledged) delegates come into play, once they have fulfilled their obligation to vote for Trump on the first ballot.

Nobody will be stealing the election. You may want to call it that, but everyone would see such a claim as just what it is: the sour grapes of a sore loser.

Remember this: The hallmark of a real loser is the habitual blaming of others for his own failures. Remind you of anyone?

[dware]

It's either he gets that, or he just hits the long flyball for the easy out. It's looking more like it's going to be the long flyball easy out. Don't you think?

Only because Cruz doesn't actually care about America. If he did, he would have been out of the race already. He, more so than Trump, has no path to nomination at this point, other than contested Convention. Which should be no surprise that he is willing to play dirty all through his campaign, right into the Convention. Sobeit. Cruz will need us Trump supporters to win. Us Trump supporters will be writing in Trump for POTUC, and voting 3rd party (or better yet, writing Trump in) the rest of the down ticket. This WILL be the end of the GOP, one way or the other.

[Ingtar]

I think the disagreement on mathematically eliminated actually comes from one saying “during the primaries” and the other saying “at the convention”. If both Trump and Cruz get their delegates to vote to keep rule 40, then it will be one of the two of them, and most likely it will be whichever can garner support from the delegates at the convention. If past history of close, or contested conventions is any indication, they will both be on the ticket.

[kjam22]

No way trumpy would accept the vp slot. :)