Posted on 09/21/2011 11:33:07 AM PDT by parksstp
Watching Palin, you know that when she does something, she only does it at 110% or more. And like most politicians, she doesn’t like to lose (see her 2008 night of the election – yeah, she was angry McCain wouldn’t let her speak, but I’m also sure deep down she was bitter over the fact that the American voters bought the whole “hope and changey” platitudes.) And obviously, she wants to fix that bitter taste from 2008. How she accomplishes that (runs, doesn’t run, etc) has been a matter of debate.
The biggest hinderance you hear about Palin running for POTUS is her “electability”. Polls would have you believe her unfavorable ratings will never allow her to win the GOP nomination, or if she does win it, lose the 2012 General Election.
Well, yes, polls can help determine the outlook of a situation. Take a look at the current sitting President. All signs point to him losing his base, in addition to independents, as the country spirals downward.
But we have seen one thing proven time and time again. That regardless of polls, the ideological support of each party, usually in some fashion or another, returns to their ideological candidate. Usually it is enough. Sometimes it is not (McCain).
The “electability” argument against Palin usually goes that she cannot win the election because she cannot win moderates or independents. Okay, fine, valid point. Now my contention is going to be this: Does she really have to win them to win the 2012 Election?
Some folks would scoff off at me: “Of course she does! Nobody is going to win the election if they can’t win the middle.” Oh really?
The “Moderate/Independent” label is broad and misleading. Looking at some of the CNN Map data from the 2004, 2008, and 2010 Elections, I’ve come across something interesting. These “Moderate/Independents” tend to vote for the Republican candidate in counties carried by the Republican. Shockingly, the “Moderate/Independents” also tend to vote for the Democrat in counties carried by the Democrat. Not so moderate/independent as we thought. And when you hear the media talking about how she can’t win the “Independents” they’re referring to the ones in the blue counties. Even though no Republican ever carries anywhere near a majority of independents in the blue counties, they expect Palin to accomplish this task to have legitimacy, while in all honesty, she can run just as mediocre in those areas as Bush did, provided she runs strong margins in the traditional conservative areas. Picking up 20% of “Independents” in Broward County, FL would be all she would need provided she ran as strong elsewhere in the state where she is supposed to.
Okay, sorry for the digression, back to the question of the thread. Like I said, Sarah likes to win and hates losing. Well folks, there’s one event going on right now, that if you’re a Palin supporter you better be on the phone lines making it happen.
The current bill in PA to reapportion the Electoral College votes blows the electability argument out of the water. IF it passes, based on redistricting, it’s possible that the GOP candidate could come out of PA with as many as 10 Electoral Votes. That’s the equivalent of IA and NH, without actually having to win IA and NH. It turns the Electoral Math almost decisively towards the GOP candidate.
Except for MO (given it’s closeness), there is no Red State from 2008 that is in any serious jeopardy to turn blue in 2012. MO has shown that there is usually enough conservative votes to offset StL/KC. IN and NC both appear to be heading Red this time around. VA can return to the Red column by reclaiming Loudon, Chesapeake, Suffolk, and other Bush-majorities that McCain lost. FL and OH seem to go as the economy goes. Obama did not blow McCain out in either of these states, instead McCain severly underperformed in traditionally red/conservative areas. That’s 266 Electoral votes. When you add in the potential of 10 Electoral Votes from PA, it’s game over for Obama.
In fact, it opens up viable winning scenarios for the Republican without having to win both OH and FL. For example, let’s say for whatever reason, Obama succeeds in getting “old people” scared to vote for Palin and wins FL. If she still carried OH and reclaimed the Bush States of IA, NM, CO, and NV or NH, and won at least 7 CD’s in PA, she would have 270 to win. Likewise, if she lost OH due to voter fraud, but managed to carry FL, CO, and one other state (IA, NM, NV, NH), 6-7 CD’s in PA would also get her to 270.
With the passage of this bill, the Electoral Math is realistically in her favor. Not that it wasn’t before, but this bill may be the decisive factor in her decision to run for two reasons. First, the GOP primary voters can feel assured that based on the Electoral Math probabilities, they can select the candidate they really want to without having to worry about the “electability” factor. This is the #1 argument she will need to make to capture voters from the Perry and the other conservative campaigns. Second, from an economic standpoint, her campaign can throw the kitchen sink at OH/FL immediately putting Obama on defense, then pick and choose what other blue states they will gamble for (but don’t have to win) given their status of funds.
IF this PA bill passes, look for a Palin announcement shortly thereafter. If none occurs, then she won’t be running.
That would work for me. This district is, at its heart, fairly conservative (at least by NY standards), and deserves after the past few decades to be represented by someone who is ‘one of them.’
” I REALLY HATE the phrase “110 percent.” THERE IS NO SUCH NUMBER.”
If the speed limit is 100 MPH, and you are driving 110 MPH, you are going 110 percent of the speed limit. So, I guess there is such a number.
The shuttle throttled up to over one hundred percent, also.
Sorry.
Uuuuhhh, Princess, if you are female, you might not understand the basic appeal of living in that ole White House with such an intelligent wife...no, I would say that a lot of us would only be too happy to perform that patriotic “duty” on a daily basis, to save the Republic from our present travesty, don’tcha know?
She’s not sitting there about to decide not to run because she doesn’t think she can win. That’s so far from reality and she doesn’t strike me as someone who sits there fretting in a corner far from reality.
As I posted on another thread.
Why is SarahPac almost begging in this letter for a one time big donation? IMO if she announces yes, they fear the pac money will dry up and go to her campaign? Or, if she announces no, the pac money will dry up from disappointed supporters?
Either way, if my prognosis is correct, I extrapolate out from it she has made her decision and will very shortly say yea or nay.
At least one publication today said Palin is filing for divorce...actually husband Todd is. She’s toast.
Wow.... Didn’t know Freepers could be this removed from reality, or at best naive.
The “publication” that decided to recycle the stale, old, proven-to-be-false rumor of Palins’ divorce was the Daily Mail (UK). Some crack reporting on the other side of the pond...investigative journalism Brit-style... you think? Well, the “industrious” reporterette wore out her shoe leather by quoting the National Enquirer story which based itself on the steaming pile of scurrilous crap put out in McGinnis’ book. You know the latter had to be horrifically inaccurate and embarrassing if even the NY Times (which salivates at the chance of driving daggers into Palin) panned the “effort” of this voyeuristic creep. All of the material McGinnis defecated into his “book” is unsubstantiated, allegations from unnamed sources, with nary a footnote. And, since this steaming pile is the “foundation” upon which the Enquirer story rose and the Enquirer piece fed this Peabody award winner (/s) @ the Daily Mail, the whole endeavor is just a pile of **it!
Either you detest Palin or are simply not paying attention.
if you are stupid enough to believe that
FYI the Iowa caucuses will always be the first. Doesn’t matter who tries to jump ahead of them. Iowa will automatically move earlier. State law.
I'll have you know that when I fully commit to something, I usually just give 107.5%. That's because I want to hold that other 2.5% in reserve for when I really need it.
During the 2010 mid-terms, the GOP cleaned up in NH. The mood hasn't changed much since then (I live on the MA/NH border). I don't think it would be difficult for the GOP presidential candidate to pick up the state in 2012.
So what if another state passes a law saying it's first?
As soon as Iowa jumps ahead, the other state does too.
In case you weren't aware, states can't pass laws over other states.
I think Todd is better then that.
So what if another state passes a law saying it’s first?
As soon as Iowa jumps ahead, the other state does too.
In case you weren’t aware, states can’t pass laws over other states.
Yeah, and that story about Todd having an affair turned out so true, didn’t it??
ROFL
No. You’re talking about comparing TWO numbers.
Why, pray tell, do you care so much? If your candidate has it "in the bag", what could Palin do to upset your applecart? Hmmmm. ;)
We’ve had no problem here at Freerepublic believing Daily Mail and National Enquirer and others when Democrats were in trouble..right?
I think a lot of what has been reported is garbage, the problem is that many people, including a number of independents will believe it. She’s toast. I suspect she does not run at all because of it. If she runs, the media will just keep digging harder and harder and that will dominate her campaign. I still think it’s Romney’s to lose, regardless of where Perry is in the polls today. His SS comments will ultimately sink him.
Because the longer she drags this thing out the more fun it is to watch. And obvious clues like this
SarahPAC letter today: "There's No Question That We Must Replace Obama in 2012"
just make it more-so.
Mr. K, it doesn’t matter if I’m stupid enough to believe it....there will be millions of voters who will, including many independents. She’s toast unless they can categorically prove it’s not true, which they won’t be able to.
People will believe anything...look at the number of nutjob Democrats that believe Bush was responsible for 9-11 and knew the planes flew into the towers. One could argue there are plenty of nutjobs on our side with the birther movement.
At the end of the day, if enough people believe those stories she’s toast. I’d argue she’s toast regardless. She has too many negatives. That’s just the reality of getting elected in this day and age.
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