Hillary is sinking.
Posted on 08/31/2016 2:46:55 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Signs abound that Trump could be doing far better than the MSM says
For all those sipping a cocktail right now in a Manhattan skyscraper, toasting the swift demise of one Donald J. Trump, here’s a fly in your pretentious dirty martini: There are signs that the belligerent billionaire may be doing significantly better in the presidential race than many polls indicate.
New voter registration is surging in several swing states and appears to be lopsided in favor of the Republican Party. Moreover, a recent analysis of absentee ballots in Florida reveals an unprecedented number of low-propensity voters registered this year — presumably to support the outsider candidate (hint: It’s not Hillary Clinton).
“Republicans have continued gaining ground in recent months in voter registration in Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Iowa,” Politico reported last week. In Pennsylvania, more than 85,000 former Democrats have switched to the Republican Party this year. This is nearly three times the number of those who made the opposite switch.
In North Carolina, Politico reported, “Democrats’ voter registration advantage shrunk by 44,000 between June 2015 and May 2016” and their “advantage had dwindled to 641,000” as of Aug. 13. In Florida, Republicans have added nearly 70,000 voters and the Democrats’ registration advantage has more than halved since 2012.
Data from Florida also suggests this election could see an unprecedented turnout of first-time or second-time voters. In examining absentee ballots for the upcoming Florida Senate primary election, the Florida Chamber of Commerce discovered “a huge spike in mail voting by people who rarely vote in primary elections,” the Tampa Bay Times reported.
According to the report, nearly half of the mail ballots returned for the primary election are from those who voted in one or fewer of the last four primary elections. “We’re in unprecedented, uncharted territory,” said Florida Chamber President and CEO Mark Wilson. “Nobody’s been polling these people, nobody’s been marketing to these people.”
No one has been polling these people — and these people may very well decide the election. This is one of the reasons why most of the polls which have shown Trump losing in a landslide are not to be trusted — most polling companies reach out to those who are historically politically active, not those who are historically apathetic.
Furthermore, many of the polls which paint the most depressing picture for the Trump campaign are heavily weighted toward registered Republicans and Democrats, when in reality most registered American voters are independent — and independent voters appear to lean Trump. A recent Emerson poll for example found that Trump leads independents in Ohio by 47 percent to 30 percent, 39 percent to 38 percent in Michigan, and 43 percent to 37 percent in Pennsylvania. Some studies have also indicated that Trump consistently performs better in anonymous, online polls, suggesting that he has stronger support than many traditional polls seem to indicate.
"We saw the commentariat and we saw the polling industry doing everything they could to demoralize our campaign," Brexit proponent Nigel Farage told a crowd of jubilant Trump supporters last week. They may very well be doing the same thing in the U.S. But even within polling industry weighted in Clinton's favor, there are signs she's slipping. A new Monmouth poll released Monday showed Clinton's lead sinking to only 7 points over Trump.
"This is huge," said Marian Johnson, an expert on Florida politics and the senior vice president of political strategy for the Florida Chamber of Commerce, of the Florida absentee ballot revelations.
"I can envision election night when the votes are counted that certain people win that nobody thought had a chance, and that being attributed to this trend." Right now nobody — well, nobody in the commentariat, anyway — thinks Trump has a chance. They could be wrong.
Using 2012 turnout (or even worse- 2012 exit polls) for weighting the results is the most egregious and common fault in major polls.
It’s my understanding that polling is getting more difficult for several reasons...one being that fewer and fewer homes have landlines.IMO the best indication of how Trump is doing is how shrill the Former Twelfth Lady is in speeches and ads.”Trump will have people of color starving in the streets” means that her private polling sees trouble.
DJT will kick the snot out of HRC ~ Go, Trump, GO!
Nahh! The media would never lie to us about polls or the Clintons. The media is honest, telling the truth so the country will be well informed. The media wants what is best for this country and are not interested in manipulating the masses only for profit. The media is high in the polls for telling the truth and bringing us Obama.
Why should people being polled tell the truth?
Nahh! The media would never lie to us about polls or the Clintons. The media is honest, telling the truth so the country will be well informed. The media wants what is best for this country and are not interested in manipulating the masses only for profit. The media is high in the polls for telling the truth and bringing us Obama.
Why should people being polled tell the truth?
I can definitely get behind this! Emerson released a NY State Poll today, showing Hillary up by 18, but they use +19 women sample. I think they also used D+3 more than Obama got in 2012. The poll was D+21.4 vs D+18.4, which I believe is what the turnout looked like in 2012.
Clinton is not a very likeable candidate. Who in the world would like to listen to her for 4 years? The media will be talking to an empty audience if they push Clinton. The media will lose money because few people will watch the news if she is on t.v. every night. She cannot even hold a simple news conference since she is so afraid to be caught in another lie.
Clinton looks old and tired when she gives a speech. This is an old grandmother who should have retired 10 years ago.
She is not healthy enough to be President.
What makes polling suspect is that lots of supporters of both candidates are embarrassed to admit the support. I have not seen any bumper stickers for either candidate in the Phoenix area. I suspect that this same embarrassment leads people to hang up on pollsters.
The Trump supporters are shamed by the media nightly. And the Clinton supporter are shamed by their own consciences.
There are also people in the Democrat party, who have always voted Democrat, but they detest Hillary Clinton. They will not admit to anyone that they will be voting for the Republican nominee.
“Using 2012 turnout (or even worse- 2012 exit polls) for weighting the results is the most egregious and common fault in major polls.”
I could not agree more. For one thing both candidates are way different than who was running in 2012. I also believe the dynamics are different this time around.
Now that there is some good news.
Wrong what? Most are tied or Trump is slightly ahead...
Things are so bad for Mrs Clinton that the federal government is threatening to seize the election for cripes sake. How much worse can it get for her?
I’m not so sure the polls are that far off. After the GOP convention, Trump got a big bounce, and then after the DNC the lying criminal got a big bounce. This is what has happened in the past, so to me it appears the polls are operating as you would expect them to.
Likewise, Trump has been on point for a few weeks while the lying criminal has been mostly absent so the polls are tightening, as you would expect them to.
Now, it appears that some of the polls are over-sampling dems. On the other hand, the election will likely come down to results in a handful of states like OH, VA, PA, MI, FL, NV, etc, and the criminal’s team might be looking at relatively better results when the electoral college is taken into consideration. She sure is not acting like a candidate that’s in trouble. Other than the celebrity fund raisers, she seems to be relying on a “front porch” sort of strategy which, unless she’s truly ill, suggests confidence.
Here’s how it works: The media skews some polls and fabricates others. On election day, the DemoRATS pick up the ball and combine hacking, ballot-stuffing and massive illegal alien voting to produce a “result” that closely matches the phony polls.
Then the Democrats will say the election was stolen because the polls couldn’t possibly have been wrong.
Disregard the polls. They are always manipulated for a reason. When your candidate is up, they alter them to make your candidate look like he is losing ground, when he is actually winning.
The polls report what the numbers are. It’s just that the numbers don’t mean much. They are taken from the questions asked to about 1000 people, and then extrapolated to apply to the entire population of 350 million.
The methods do not guarantee that the numbers reflect the entire population accurately.
Hillary is sinking.
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