Lando 
Posted on 12/11/2003 12:29:56 PM PST by ConservativeMan55
2004 Will Be the U.S.'S Best Year Economically in Last 20 Years, The Conference Board Reports in a Revised Forecast Thursday December 11, 11:01 am ET
NEW YORK, Dec. 11 /PRNewswire/ -- Revising its year-end economic forecast sharply upward, The Conference Board today projected that real GDP growth will hit 5.7% next year, making 2004 the best year economically in the last 20 years. The forecast, by Conference Board Chief Economist Gail Fosler, expects worker productivity, which set a 20-year record in the third quarter, to rise at a healthy 3.6% next year. That would follow a gain of 4.3% this year.
The economic forecast is prepared for more than 2,500 corporate members of The Conference Board's global business network, based in 66 nations.
KEY BAROMETERS FLASHING GROWTH
"Growing business spending and continued strength in consumer spending are generating growth throughout the U.S. economy," says Fosler. "This burgeoning strength is reflected in The Conference Board's widely-watched Leading Economic Indicators, the Consumer Confidence Index and the Help-Wanted Advertising Index. While the labor market, a critical factor in sustaining growth, is growing slowly, a pick-up in hiring may already have begun."
Real consumer spending, which continues to fuel growth, will increase at a 4.7% pace next year, up from about 3.2% this year. Another gain of 4.3% is projected for 2005.
While the U.S. economy is expected to generate more than one million new jobs next year, the unemployment rate will edge down only slightly, averaging 5.6% in 2004.
The Conference Board forecast notes that as the U.S. economy bounces back, so is Europe, although growth will be subdued compared to most other major parts of the world. "For all the concern about a weak dollar," says Fosler, "the dollar will be worth more than the euro by the end of the year."
Real capital spending, which will rise by only 2.7% this year, will climb 11.7% next year and another 8.6% in 2005. Pre-tax corporate operating profits will top $1 trillion next year, up from a projected $928 billion this year. Another trillion-dollar-plus gain in profits is expected in 2005.
The continued recovery in business profits, which was a key ingredient in funding new investment (crucial in making 2004 a strong growth year), depends on price relief. Business profits will benefit from both improved volume and recovering profit margins in 2004, as inflation creeps back toward 3% by the end of the year.
Source: Revised Conference Board Economic Forecast December 2003
Lando
Pinging some good news for a change.
Kerry: "F**k the economy!"
I'd like it if someone would just switch the two colors.
I'm only posting a message so I can search it out in 2005 to see how accurate these "WAG's" are.
Yep ! Time to get a job, Mr. PotatoHead ! ...
Tom da$$hole's response ...
Fundamentals are looking good, with one exception: the price of oil.
We've got low unemployment, low inflation, low interest rates, easy credit, and high Productivity all leading to an increase in our speed of money.
The trade deficit is *roughly* the size of our GDP growth, so I'd label it as "neutral" now. Federal and state debt is below our current and expected rate of GDP growth, so that's still not a negative, either.
To get to this point, at the federal level we've repealed various rules and regulations and red tape (logging, genetically modified foods, getting medicine to Market faster, CO2 regulations, ergonomic rules, etc.), lowered income taxes substantially (a family of four earning forty thousand per year now pays less than four Dollars in monthly income taxes), dropped the value of the Dollar on the foreign exchange markets (but not yet against every currency, sadly), and the Fed has lowered banking interest rates substantially.
The Dollar needs to still fall to a level plateau some 20% below its current levels (roughly 40% below its peak) to turn our trade deficit completely around, however.
We also need to figure out how to get oil down to no higher than $25 per barrel.
If those last two things happen in our current climate, then the U.S. economy should go into a multi-decade boom that will make the roaring 1920's sound like a whisper.
So because our fundamentals look so good, one shouldn't be overly concerned if the DOW slows down or if there is another Tech bloodbath.
Naturally, corporate layoffs are going to continue at the bigger and older firms, with hiring coming on in the smaller and younger firms. Such as it is, such as it was, such it will ever be. Gloom and doomers will latch onto the layoffs and the falling Dollar, and perhaps a big drop in the Market (always possible though I doubt it likely) as reasons for a coming "Bust." As in most years of our nation's history, however, the Doomers will be wrong yet again due to our strong fundamentals.
To actually kill this Boom would take a raise in taxes, a major terror attack, an increase in regulations, and oil staying above $32 per barrel for an extended period (or a major hike in interest rates). Each of these things is/are unlikely, and the aggregate combination is even less likely.
So bet on the boom.
You might put me in the 3rd Party troll, but I've been very consistent. Over 5% GDP next year, Dow over 11,000 by the election, and unemployment under 5.2%
Re re your concern about 2005. We will probably see another tax cut in 2004. If the right mixture of congress is there, we will see massive changes in the government sector. Jobs will be eliminated, and many of those that are necessary will be handled by private enterprise.
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