According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 291 Electoral Votes and John Kerry would receive 247 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of President Bush winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then President Bush should get 282.89 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 10/18/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 10/11/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 10/4/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/27/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/20/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/13/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/6/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/30/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/19/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/12/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/28/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/21/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/14/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/7/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/31/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/24/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/17/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/10/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/3/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/19/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/12/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/29/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/22/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/15/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/8/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/1/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004
Under that scenario, Bush STILL wins the electoral college if he fails to hold Ohio.
Works for me!
- but my big surprise for Election Eve. is that MI goes Bush because of the Marriage Amendment on the Ballot.
| Date | Prob. Bush Win | Mean EVs | Std. Dev. |
| 01/21 | 96.8% | 341.5 | 41.1 |
| 01/26 | 95.5% | 334.8 | 40.6 |
| 02/02 | 92.2% | 323.8 | 39.7 |
| 02/09 | 83.0% | 307.8 | 40.3 |
| 02/16 | 78.4% | 300.4 | 39.4 |
| 02/23 | 76.2% | 298.2 | 39.6 |
| 03/01 | 74.5% | 295.9 | 39.3 |
| 03/08 | 68.0% | 289.2 | 39.8 |
| 03/15 | 68.0% | 288.8 | 39.0 |
| 03/22 | 68.5% | 289.3 | 38.8 |
| 03/29 | 69.4% | 290.1 | 38.8 |
| 04/05 | 71.2% | 292.3 | 39.1 |
| 04/12 | 70.4% | 290.6 | 38.1 |
| 04/19 | 68.6% | 288.1 | 36.7 |
| 04/26 | 64.9% | 284.5 | 36.3 |
| 05/03 | 66.3% | 285.7 | 36.3 |
| 05/10 | 65.6% | 285.3 | 36.8 |
| 05/17 | 65.2% | 284.8 | 36.6 |
| 05/24 | 60.0% | 280.3 | 36.9 |
| 05/31 | 61.1% | 281.2 | 36.8 |
| 06/07 | 60.5% | 280.6 | 36.5 |
| 06/14 | 65.0% | 285.0 | 36.6 |
| 06/21 | 63.9% | 284.0 | 36.8 |
| 06/28 | 58.4% | 278.8 | 36.7 |
| 07/05 | 58.7% | 279.1 | 36.7 |
| 07/12 | 53.1% | 274.2 | 36.5 |
| 07/19 | 48.2% | 269.8 | 35.7 |
| 07/26 | 43.4% | 265.6 | 35.0 |
| 08/02 | 42.1% | 264.3 | 34.7 |
| 08/09 | 42.9% | 265.2 | 34.5 |
| 08/16 | 42.6% | 264.9 | 34.2 |
| 08/23 | 41.8% | 264.3 | 34.5 |
| 08/30 | 56.1% | 276.4 | 35.0 |
| 09/06 | 65.0% | 284.1 | 35.0 |
| 09/13 | 73.7% | 291.5 | 34.2 |
| 09/20 | 80.1% | 297.3 | 33.4 |
| 09/27 | 81.0% | 298.9 | 33.9 |
| 10/04 | 69.1% | 286.3 | 32.5 |
| 10/11 | 57.1% | 276.4 | 32.4 |
| 10/18 | 58.5% | 277.2 | 31.8 |
| 10/25 | 66.6% | 282.9 | 30.0 |
Good to hear Virginia at 90%. The DUngers were saying that Kerry was going to start moving money into that state. Arnold has got to help move Ohio this week.