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2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/6/2004
TradeSports.com ^ | Monday, September 6, 2004 | Momaw Nadon

Posted on 09/06/2004 4:53:49 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon

State % Chance of Bush Winning Bush Electoral Votes Kerry Electoral Votes
Alabama 98.0 9 0
Alaska 96.0 3 0
Arizona 78.0 10 0
Arkansas 73.0 6 0
California 12.0 0 55
Colorado 76.0 9 0
Connecticut 8.0 0 7
Delaware 16.0 0 3
District of Columbia 1.0 0 3
Florida 60.3 27 0
Georgia 96.5 15 0
Hawaii 10.0 0 4
Idaho 95.5 4 0
Illinois 8.0 0 21
Indiana 96.0 11 0
Iowa 41.0 0 7
Kansas 96.0 6 0
Kentucky 92.5 8 0
Louisiana 92.5 9 0
Maine 26.5 0 4
Maryland 14.0 0 10
Massachusetts 3.0 0 12
Michigan 33.0 0 17
Minnesota 41.0 0 10
Mississippi 96.0 6 0
Missouri 67.0 11 0
Montana 95.0 3 0
Nebraska 96.0 5 0
Nevada 60.0 5 0
New Hampshire 41.5 0 4
New Jersey 14.0 0 15
New Mexico 41.5 0 5
New York 7.0 0 31
North Carolina 81.0 15 0
North Dakota 96.0 3 0
Ohio 64.0 20 0
Oklahoma 97.0 7 0
Oregon 37.5 0 7
Pennsylvania 43.0 0 21
Rhode Island 4.0 0 4
South Carolina 95.0 8 0
South Dakota 96.0 3 0
Tennessee 78.6 11 0
Texas 98.0 34 0
Utah 96.0 5 0
Vermont 7.0 0 3
Virginia 86.0 13 0
Washington 26.0 0 11
West Virginia 66.0 5 0
Wisconsin 57.0 10 0
Wyoming 97.0 3 0
Totals   284 254


TOPICS: Government; Miscellaneous; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; Unclassified; Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: 2004; bush; bushbounce; election; electionpresident; electoral; electoralvote; electoralvotes; georgebush; georgewbush; gwb2004; kewl; president; presidentbush; presidential; vote; votes
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I went to TradeSports.com which is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things.

According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.

If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 284 Electoral Votes and John Kerry would receive 254 Electoral Votes.

If the weighted probabilities of President Bush winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then President Bush should get 284.12 Electoral Votes.

270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

1 posted on 09/06/2004 4:53:50 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon
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To: Momaw Nadon
Previous projections:

2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/30/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/19/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/12/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/28/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/21/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/14/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/7/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/31/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/24/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/17/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/10/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/3/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/19/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/12/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/29/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/22/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/15/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/8/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/1/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004

2 posted on 09/06/2004 4:54:15 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon (Goals for 2004: Re-elect President Bush, over 60 Republicans in the Senate, and a Republican House.)
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To: Momaw Nadon

3 posted on 09/06/2004 4:54:33 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon (Goals for 2004: Re-elect President Bush, over 60 Republicans in the Senate, and a Republican House.)
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To: Momaw Nadon

4 posted on 09/06/2004 4:54:54 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon (Goals for 2004: Re-elect President Bush, over 60 Republicans in the Senate, and a Republican House.)
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To: Optimist; BlessedByLiberty; upchuck; Remember_Salamis; Aeronaut; codercpc; Gritty; Krodg; fooman; ..
If you want on (or off) of the weekly TradeSports.com Projected Presidential Electoral Vote ping list, please let me know via FREEPmail.
5 posted on 09/06/2004 4:55:28 AM PDT by Momaw Nadon (Goals for 2004: Re-elect President Bush, over 60 Republicans in the Senate, and a Republican House.)
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To: Momaw Nadon
Things certainly seem to be going the right way.

Many thanks for producing these data each week.
6 posted on 09/06/2004 5:03:06 AM PDT by tjwmason (Cum catapultae proscriptae erunt tum soli proscript catapultas habebunt.)
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To: Momaw Nadon

Notice New Mexico is ruining that nice patch of blue in the middle of the country. With folks who voted in that rat of a governor, it's no wonder. I'll never forgive him for giving the Texas sock puppets shelter and his tourist commercials cause immediate channel switches.


7 posted on 09/06/2004 5:18:35 AM PDT by mtbopfuyn
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To: mtbopfuyn

NM, IA, MN, and PA will be the next four to switch.


8 posted on 09/06/2004 5:24:01 AM PDT by LS
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To: Momaw Nadon

Where can one find accurate polling data for House and Senate races? Will Dubya's coattails mean a filibuster-proof senate?


9 posted on 09/06/2004 5:26:34 AM PDT by thelastvirgil
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To: Momaw Nadon

Please explain why New York is only a 7% chance of a Bush win when they have had a Republican governor for 10 years. New York City, the most liberal area of the state, has had a Republican mayor for many years.

I know NYC Republicans are more liberal than mainstream Republicans, but it just seems like Republicans would have gained much more support during the past decade. Even Ronald Reagan won in New York!


10 posted on 09/06/2004 5:26:36 AM PDT by Tai_Chung
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To: Tai_Chung
Please explain why New York is only a 7% chance of a Bush win when they have had a Republican governor for 10 years. New York City, the most liberal area of the state, has had a Republican mayor for many years.

A post-911 New York will have a stronger Republican slant this year over previous years, due to traditional Dems voting the War on Terror issue above other concerns-- the 'Koch Effect.' If this has not been factored into these figures, it should be.

11 posted on 09/06/2004 5:34:05 AM PDT by atomicpossum (If there are two Americas, John Edwards isn't qualified to lead either of them.)
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Poll
Date
Bush/
Cheney
Kerry/
Edwards
Spread
RCP Average
8/30 - 9/4
49.4%
44.2%
Bush +5.2
9/2 - 9/4
48%
46%
Bush +2
9/2 - 9/3
54%
43%
Bush +11
8/31 - 9/2
51%
41%
Bush +10
8/30 - 9/2
46%
44%
Bush +2
8/30 - 9/1
48%
47%
Bush +1

12 posted on 09/06/2004 5:39:23 AM PDT by MattMa (I'm not a victim, I am a conservative and if you get to close, I just may bite.)
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To: Tai_Chung
Please explain why New York is only a 7% chance of a Bush win

This is the prediction of futures traders, and how much money they are willing to bet. It is not based on any survey data.

13 posted on 09/06/2004 5:42:02 AM PDT by Aeronaut (If John Kerry is going to talk about what he likes in a woman, shouldn't it be in Fortune or Money?)
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To: mtbopfuyn

I was wondering that myself what is wrong with New Mexico.


14 posted on 09/06/2004 6:34:07 AM PDT by rodguy911 ( President Reagan---all the rest.)
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To: LS

"NM, IA, MN, and PA will be the next four to switch."
Pennsylvania is definitely moving toward Bush....big time!
If PA goes for Bush early in the evening, we can all go to bed early on Election Night.......with a smile on our faces. Of course, we won't. We will be up celebrating through the night.
Anyone volunteering to help Libs and Hollyweirdos with their packing for their promised moves out of the USA?


15 posted on 09/06/2004 6:41:41 AM PDT by Winfield (sham)
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To: rodguy911

Probably NM rodents have been successful in registering enough illegal aliens, um, I mean homeless without ID.


16 posted on 09/06/2004 6:42:15 AM PDT by mtbopfuyn
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To: mtbopfuyn
I was wondering about that, they are right on the border, could be a huge problem down the road, even 08.
17 posted on 09/06/2004 6:48:48 AM PDT by rodguy911 ( President Reagan---all the rest.)
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To: mtbopfuyn

Bush lost NM in 2000 by less than 400 votes. Can't imagine him losing it now. He's been tested by experience; while Kerry's not nearly as appealing as Gore (ha!)


18 posted on 09/06/2004 8:52:15 AM PDT by Graymatter
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To: Momaw Nadon

This wouldn't happen to be an excel spreadsheet, would it?

Could I get a copy?


19 posted on 09/06/2004 8:58:45 AM PDT by Petronski (With what? Spitballs!?!)
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To: Winfield

I have a special celebration planned for my university. My wife gave me, for my birthday, a full-size cutout of G.W., so I'm bringing that to my office and putting it right in my door! Take that, ya libs!


20 posted on 09/06/2004 9:07:19 AM PDT by LS
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