2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/12/2004

TradeSports.com ^ | Monday, April 12, 2004 | Momaw Nadon

[Momaw Nadon]

State	% Chance of Bush Winning	Bush Electoral Votes	Kerry Electoral Votes
Alabama	94.0	9	0
Alaska	95.0	3	0
Arizona	75.0	10	0
Arkansas	67.0	6	0
California	15.0	0	55
Colorado	81.0	9	0
Connecticut	14.0	0	7
Delaware	22.0	0	3
District of Columbia	1.0	0	3
Florida	61.0	27	0
Georgia	91.0	15	0
Hawaii	8.0	0	4
Idaho	95.0	4	0
Illinois	17.0	0	21
Indiana	88.0	11	0
Iowa	42.0	0	7
Kansas	93.0	6	0
Kentucky	87.0	8	0
Louisiana	83.5	9	0
Maine	19.0	0	4
Maryland	18.0	0	10
Massachusetts	4.0	0	12
Michigan	43.0	0	17
Minnesota	41.0	0	10
Mississippi	93.0	6	0
Missouri	65.0	11	0
Montana	92.0	3	0
Nebraska	96.0	5	0
Nevada	70.0	5	0
New Hampshire	65.0	4	0
New Jersey	18.0	0	15
New Mexico	57.0	5	0
New York	12.0	0	31
North Carolina	84.0	15	0
North Dakota	95.0	3	0
Ohio	60.0	20	0
Oklahoma	95.0	7	0
Oregon	40.0	0	7
Pennsylvania	57.0	21	0
Rhode Island	4.0	0	4
South Carolina	87.0	8	0
South Dakota	95.0	3	0
Tennessee	81.0	11	0
Texas	94.0	34	0
Utah	96.0	5	0
Vermont	8.0	0	3
Virginia	88.5	13	0
Washington	29.0	0	11
West Virginia	53.0	5	0
Wisconsin	50.0	0	10
Wyoming	96.0	3	0
Totals		304	234

[Momaw Nadon]

I went to TradeSports.com which is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things.

According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.

If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 304 Electoral Votes and John Kerry would receive 234 Electoral Votes.

If the weighted probabilities of President Bush winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then President Bush should get 290.61 Electoral Votes.

270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

[Momaw Nadon]

Previous projections:

2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/29/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/22/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/15/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/8/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/1/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004

[Momaw Nadon]

Wisconsin is at 50.0% today.

The bid price is 48.0 and the ask price is 52.0. These average to 50.0.

The tie goes to John Kerry due to Democrat vote fraud.

[EllaMinnow]

Yay! I was looking for this earlier.

[cardinal4]

I am betting Bush will have 270 by 700pm EST..

[Plutarch]

PA at 57%? Wow that is great news!

[billorites]

From the Iowa Futures Market site.

[WinOne4TheGipper]

Thanks Momaw. Unfortunately, Dales didn't do his ECB thread this weekend, so this good news will have to do for this week.:)

[Theodore R.]

PA at 57%? Wow that is great news!

Well, has anybody told Arlen about this probability? Does it square with "Scottish law"?

[Theodore R.]

The three states in this survey in which I have the least confidence are WV, PA, and OH, all bordering one another.

[Phisher]

And Nebraska is yet again the most republican state.


:)

[So Cal Rocket]

Dales now does his updates on Wednesdays.

[Patrick1]

I tend to agree with this trend. It is pretty much what I predicted at the start of the year. I think before it is all said and done Bush will pick up Wisconsin, Iowa and Minnesota and should have an electoral landslide to go along with a five to six point popular vote win.

[tkathy]

Really interesting!

[Digger]

And Nebraska is yet again the most republican state

See what clean water, clean air, clean living can do to the mind.

[WinOne4TheGipper]

Oops. That's something I must've missed when I was away. Thanks.

[Right Wing Professor]

And Nebraska is yet again the most republican state.

I'd prefer a #1 in College Football, but this is a pretty good second.

[gitmo]

For states with a 90% confidence rate, it's Bush 103 Kerry 26.

For states with an 80% confidence rate, it's Bush 187 Kerry 169.

For states with a 70% confidence rate, it's Bush 202 Kerry 183.

[international american]

"The tie goes to John Kerry due to Democrat vote fraud."

If Bush does nothing about vote fraud this year, he will lose!!

[truthbesaid34]

Please explain the dem. U.S. senator????? Repub. Neb.???

[Paulus Invictus]

The weak states are all in the Blue Socialist list--all so far left they smell of old, unwashed and never-changed commie undewear.

Here's a great new book I recommend to all freepers: "An End to Evil" by Frum and Perle. The books spells out the admin's stance on terrorism in a way that is devastatingly clear. It also shoots down the opponents (all RATs and the leftist media!). The authors make it clear that the terrorists are losing, but that Bush and company need to increase the pressure in Iraq, Iran and North Korea and soon.

[badgerlandjim]

District of Columbia is more like 0.001.

[goldstategop]

The presidency is determined not by the popular vote but by the electoral college. President Bush could still lose the popular vote and still win a second term like he did in 2000!

[goldstategop]

Yup. You'll never see DC going for a Republican in our lifetime even if he was a true-bred RINO.

[Paulus Invictus]

We simply cannot be overly-optimistic. The polls on the left still have Kerry leading. It's going to take a lot of grass roots scouring of the Pubbies out there that don't vote and get them to the polls in masse! Keep in mind that the RATs will do all they can, legally and otherwise to win votes. The dead are sure to vote again and again in the Blue states.

[SamAdams76]

I am betting Bush will have 270 by 700pm EST..

That would be a neat trick. Considering that only Kentucky and Indiana will have their polls closed at that time. I'll settle for 270 9:05PM EST.

[Don Corleone]

Throw Hitlery into the mix..then see what happens!

[goldstategop]

I agree one should be cautious. But if the real world trading is any indication of where people's hearts are, its more reliable than a daily tracking poll. I suspect the polls that show Kerry leading more often than not, have people simply tell the pollsters what they want to hear. As long we counteract the partisan media spin, its okay to leave Ketchup Boy's partisans with the pleasant daydream their candidate will win in November. After all nothing would serve our interests better than if the other side became lazy and complacent and thought they had the election in the bag.

[Paulus Invictus]

And good old Hawaii continues to be a RAT stronghold in spite of the fact that they depend heavily upon mainland tourism just to stay afloat. It is doubtless the most heavily porked up, corrupt states in the Union per capita and their Congressional and Senatorial reps are among the worst leftists outside of Calipornia.

[goldstategop]

That's true. But they have Linda Lingle. So if there's a strong Bush tide, Hawaii may just go for him. In a couple of months we'll find out if the islands will still bestow Seinfeld with a luau.

[JLS]

I did a quick calculation of the change this week again:

State Change[toward Bush]
Alabama 2
Alaska 2
Arizona 1
Arkansas -0.5
California -2.5
Colorado 2
Connecticut 0
Delaware -7
DC 0
Florida 0
Georgia 1
Hawaii -4.5
Idaho 0
Illinois -1
Indiana 0.5
Iowa 0
Kansas 0.5
Kentucky 0.5
Louisiana 0
Maine -3.5
Maryland 0.5
Massachusetts 0
Michigan -4
Minnesota -2
Mississippi 0.5
Missouri -1
Montana 1
Nebraska 1
Nevada 2
NH 0
New Jersey 0.5
New Mexico 0
New York -1
North Carolina 0
North Dakota 0
Ohio 2
Oklahoma 0
Oregon 0
Pennsylvania 2
Rhode Island 0
South Carolina 1
South Dakota 0
Tennessee -0.8
Texas 0
Utah 0
Vermont 0
Virginia 0
Washington -4
West Virginia 0
Wisconsin 3
Wyoming 0

[cardinal4]

Yeah, someone just pointed that out to me! Ill settle for 905 EST, as well..

[gitmo]

Look at Dales Electoral College Breakdown 2004. He does a good analysis of the probable EC votes in 2004.

If you look at states that are STRONG and SAFE for the 2 candidates, it's BUSH 127 and KERRY 61.

If you include states that are LEANING, then it's BUSH 222 and KERRY 209.

Among the states that are SLIGHT, they are all BUSH (+77). That leaves 30 EC votes that are tossups.

[My2Cents]

And Florida at 61%, Ohio at 60%. This tracks with polls that show that despite all the talk about how these states are toss-ups depending on the economy, Bush actually has a good lead.

[Archie Bunker on steroids]

If I was a Rat voter there are a couple of teasers...New Mexico, Wisconsin & Pennsylvania. I'd be tempted to lay money on them for the sodomite party.

[AmericaUnited]

If Bush does nothing about vote fraud this year, he will lose!!

Only a loser would make that statement.

[paul51]

Thanks for that breakdown. Here's another

1/21-2/2 Bush 355

2/9-2/16 Bush 321

2/23-3/22 Bush 278

3/29-4/4 Bush 304

After slipping a little in feb and march, the numbers are improving

[Future Useless Eater]

here's the data from post 2 shown graphically...

Bush
Kerry

2004.01.26


2004.02.02


2004.02.09


2004.02.16


2004.02.23


2004.03.01


2004.03.08


2004.03.15


2004.03.22


2004.03.29


2004.04.05


2004.04.12




of course, if we get TOO comfortable with these stats, George Soros could go to this trading site and skew these numbers badly by just placing bets in the battleground states.

[Theodore R.]

Bush will pick up Wisconsin, Iowa and Minnesota

That is probably wishful thinking on our part. Republicans always think they will will WI in close races, and it rarely happens. IA was lost as far back as Dukakis, and MN offers hopes only when the Democrats are badly divided among themselves, which they are not in 2004. I also think it will be nearly impossible for Bush to win PA -- Specter will run six to eight points ahead of Bush in my estimation.

[rhinohunter]

Is it possible to buy options on Kerry winning or only Bush?

I would love buy options on Kerry winning D.C. --> they're a steal at 99.0 !!!!

[Lily4Jesus]

California will be a surprise. Arnold promised to deliver CA for W. and I second that. Never mind the IFS. Just watch. Don't believe the liberals. Someone is working behind the scene.

[Recovering_Democrat]

Arnold promised to deliver CA for W....

When did that happen?? I must've missed that.

[Momaw Nadon]