***FINAL*** CAMEC - COMPUTER ANALYSIS MODEL OF ELECTORAL COLLEGE ***FINAL*** 10/31

10-31-04 | Josh in PA

[Josh in PA]

CAMEC PROJECTION - 2004 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

........Bush    	Kerry   	Nader	Others	Bush %	Kerry %	BUSH EV	KERRY EV
AL      1,081,230 	671,538 	14,250 	14,250 	60.7%	37.7%	9	
AK	214,668 	128,358 	17,705 	8,115 	58.2%	34.8%	3	
AZ	984,376 	828,949 	N/A	37,007 	53.2%	44.8%	10	
AR	604,025 	521,502 	10,315 	10,315 	52.7%	45.5%	6	
CA	5,340,714 	6,342,098 	N/A	238,425	44.8%	53.2%		55
CO	1,098,165 	975,669 	45,130 	30,087 	51.1%	45.4%	9	
CT	705,326 	881,658 	28,705 	24,604 	43.0%	53.8%		7
DE	178,960 	219,633 	5,084 	3,050 	44.0%	54.0%		3
DC	33,531 	        216,664 	5,159 	2,579 	13.0%	84.0%		3
FL	3,508,207 	3,202,259 	54,391 	33,994 	51.6%	47.1%	27	
GA	1,606,182 	1,179,187 	N/A	42,417 	56.8%	41.7%	15	
HI	247,879 	244,345 	N/A	12,621 	49.1%	48.4%	4	
ID	362,351 	166,987 	N/A	16,371 	66.4%	30.6%	4	
IL	2,323,137 	2,833,602 	N/A	52,088 	44.6%	54.4%		21
IN	1,540,899 	1,103,327 	N/A	40,267 	57.4%	41.1%	11	
IA      840,978 	807,271 	20,224 	16,853 	49.9%	47.9%	7	
KS	749,881 	481,248 	22,917 	19,097 	58.9%	37.8%	6	
KY	1,086,136 	742,069 	16,738 	14,879 	58.4%	39.9%	8	
LA	1,117,209 	887,256 	14,245 	16,280 	54.9%	43.6%	9	
ME	364,288 	393,337 	19,628 	7,851 	46.4%	50.1%	1	3
MD      990,427 	1,261,588 	27,576 	18,384 	43.1%	54.9%		10
MA	1,136,961 	1,780,242 	N/A	74,800 	38.0%	59.5%		12
MI	2,302,668 	2,354,679 	37,826 	33,098 	48.7%	49.8%		17
MN	1,343,268 	1,323,920 	55,279 	41,459 	48.6%	47.9%	10	
MS	693,712 	470,733 	7,079 	8,258 	58.8%	39.9%	6	
MO	1,394,513 	1,270,676 	N/A	26,921 	51.8%	47.2%	11	
MT	313,797 	184,004 	13,031 	10,425 	60.2%	35.3%	3	
NE	524,723 	278,425 	12,356 	8,237 	63.7%	33.8%	5	
NV      405,026 	367,773 	11,889 	7,926 	51.1%	46.4%	5	
NH	302,590 	308,228 	9,397 	6,265 	48.3%	49.2%		4
NJ	1,584,417 	1,751,378 	44,296 	27,259 	46.5%	51.4%		15
NM	397,722 	367,128 	11,767 	7,845 	50.7%	46.8%	5	
NY 	3,072,429 	4,198,490 	111,860 74,574 	41.2%	56.3%		31
NC	1,860,069 	1,575,506 	N/A	34,703 	53.6%	45.4%	15	
ND	211,063 	119,914 	6,931 	8,664 	60.9%	34.6%	3	
OH	2,904,354 	2,743,956 	N/A	80,199 	50.7%	47.9%	20	
OK	869,148 	512,002 	N/A	13,951 	62.3%	36.7%	7	
OR      800,537 	854,582 	N/A	33,778 	47.4%	50.6%		7
PA	2,636,463 	2,679,419 	N/A	53,696 	49.1%	49.9%		21
RI      209,236 	307,165 	13,378 	5,351 	39.1%	57.4%		4
SC	958,439 	660,879 	13,152 	11,508 	58.3%	40.2%	8	
SD	217,057 	147,183 	4,460 	2,973 	58.4%	39.6%	3	
TN	1,327,809 	1,004,126 	16,539 	14,176 	56.2%	42.5%	11	
TX	4,569,221 	2,822,166 	N/A	74,660 	61.2%	37.8%	34	
UT	614,659 	255,056 	18,025 	13,519 	68.2%	28.3%	5	
VT	135,032 	174,215 	9,715 	4,857 	41.7%	53.8%		3
VA	1,693,700 	1,481,988 	N/A	32,078 	52.8%	46.2%	13	
WA	1,258,821 	1,399,302 	41,318 	55,091 	45.7%	50.8%		11
WV	394,177 	342,568 	6,732 	4,488 	52.7%	45.8%	5	
WI	1,500,290 	1,431,138 	45,099 	30,066 	49.9%	47.6%	10	
WY	129,249 	67,079 	        3,068 	5,113 	63.2%	32.8%	3	
TOTAL   60,739,725 	57,322,464 	795k    1465k 	50.5%	47.7%	311	227
	50.48%	        47.64%	        0.66%	1.22%				

[jpf]

You know what's driving me nuts? (granted a short drive) It's how Gallup's state polls would give Bush the election, so would Zogby, so would Rasmussen, and so would Mason-Dixon...BUT all of them with DIFFERENT states! None of them agree. I would feel a lot better right now if Gallup had Bush up in Florida and Ohio.

[chemical_boy]

I did a google search and the only link that came up was here on freerepublic

[ArmyBratCutie]

oh well....
and as far as the question....boy isnt that the truth... no on asks it because we dont do things like that....maybe we should start.....

[M Kehoe]

Interesting projection.

5.56mm

[zeebee]

CAMEC= Central African Mining and Explorarory Company

?????

[Josh in PA]

I should have put this in my first post, I apologize...

CAMEC is a computer program I've written that combines some 30+ variables, from polls, registration, previous election results, various economic indicators(misery, gdp, few others), a few other variables as well. I've devised a formula that combines all these variables and spits out numbers as so. You can search "CAMEC" in FreeRepublic history for previous projections.

[Dan from Michigan]

MI 2,302,668 2,354,679 37,826 33,098 48.7% 49.8% 17

I hope you're wrong. I'm predicting Bush by about 17,000 votes. (Engler 1990 all over again)

Gay marriage ban saves the day.

[ClintonBeGone]

Have you run your model against the 2000 election to see how accurate it would have predicted those results?

[mk2000]

hmmm an interesting response songwriter!

[beebuster2000]

yes, they are a data mining company

http://www.camec-plc.com/

[ConservativeGreek]

Thanks, have enjoyed and learned from your work.
I disagree with the turnout being this high, but not the results or the choices. Turnout is too optimistic. We will know Wednesday!

[ProudVet77]

Just curious how you gauged voter loyalty? (how strongly they feel and how likely they are to vote?)
Reason I ask is I'm a software guy too, and I can count beans but never could put a value on customer loyalty in any business app I wrote.

[Holden Magroin]

Given your predictions that Bush just barely loses Michigan and Pennsylvania, what are the chances that a last-minute visit to these states would put them in his column?

[ErnBatavia]

Don't get sucked in...these poll watchers are ALWAYS wishful thinkers - period.

Ignore them - period.

We'll find out who won in good time, but probably not before the attorneys decide it's time for "winter soltice" break...[lawyers don't "do" Christmas, you know]

[null and void]

No problem. How accurate has it been in the past?

[nelibeli]

I like what I see. Maybe something will turn the tide in PA and we can get some extra insurance.

[brewcrew]

Josh - do you have this posted on the internet? The table you've posted is misaligned for some of the larger states and the total (the bigger numbers push the next column over by one tab, and it becomes difficult to read).

[oldtimer]

Just saw a post from Gallup on FR, and it scared the clinton out of me.

This old goat take much more of this.

[notpoliticallycorewrecked]

Josh my friend I pray that you are correct.

I am going to print this for Tuesday night.

Thanks

[Josh in PA]

I have backtested this model against the previous two elections, 1996 and 2000. (Pretty short on 1996 state polling data though).

You're not going to get perfect results across the board in every state unless you start manipulating the formula from state to state in an unrealistic manner.


I'm fairly confident in it's accuracy for this election.