For what it's worth, of course. Two almost-identical projections don't necessarily equate to fact.
Posted on 10/31/2004 7:12:30 PM PST by Josh in PA
CAMEC PROJECTION - 2004 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
........Bush Kerry Nader Others Bush % Kerry % BUSH EV KERRY EVAL 1,081,230 671,538 14,250 14,250 60.7% 37.7% 9 AK 214,668 128,358 17,705 8,115 58.2% 34.8% 3 AZ 984,376 828,949 N/A 37,007 53.2% 44.8% 10 AR 604,025 521,502 10,315 10,315 52.7% 45.5% 6 CA 5,340,714 6,342,098 N/A 238,425 44.8% 53.2% 55 CO 1,098,165 975,669 45,130 30,087 51.1% 45.4% 9 CT 705,326 881,658 28,705 24,604 43.0% 53.8% 7 DE 178,960 219,633 5,084 3,050 44.0% 54.0% 3 DC 33,531 216,664 5,159 2,579 13.0% 84.0% 3 FL 3,508,207 3,202,259 54,391 33,994 51.6% 47.1% 27 GA 1,606,182 1,179,187 N/A 42,417 56.8% 41.7% 15 HI 247,879 244,345 N/A 12,621 49.1% 48.4% 4 ID 362,351 166,987 N/A 16,371 66.4% 30.6% 4 IL 2,323,137 2,833,602 N/A 52,088 44.6% 54.4% 21 IN 1,540,899 1,103,327 N/A 40,267 57.4% 41.1% 11 IA 840,978 807,271 20,224 16,853 49.9% 47.9% 7 KS 749,881 481,248 22,917 19,097 58.9% 37.8% 6 KY 1,086,136 742,069 16,738 14,879 58.4% 39.9% 8 LA 1,117,209 887,256 14,245 16,280 54.9% 43.6% 9 ME 364,288 393,337 19,628 7,851 46.4% 50.1% 1 3 MD 990,427 1,261,588 27,576 18,384 43.1% 54.9% 10 MA 1,136,961 1,780,242 N/A 74,800 38.0% 59.5% 12 MI 2,302,668 2,354,679 37,826 33,098 48.7% 49.8% 17 MN 1,343,268 1,323,920 55,279 41,459 48.6% 47.9% 10 MS 693,712 470,733 7,079 8,258 58.8% 39.9% 6 MO 1,394,513 1,270,676 N/A 26,921 51.8% 47.2% 11 MT 313,797 184,004 13,031 10,425 60.2% 35.3% 3 NE 524,723 278,425 12,356 8,237 63.7% 33.8% 5 NV 405,026 367,773 11,889 7,926 51.1% 46.4% 5 NH 302,590 308,228 9,397 6,265 48.3% 49.2% 4 NJ 1,584,417 1,751,378 44,296 27,259 46.5% 51.4% 15 NM 397,722 367,128 11,767 7,845 50.7% 46.8% 5 NY 3,072,429 4,198,490 111,860 74,574 41.2% 56.3% 31 NC 1,860,069 1,575,506 N/A 34,703 53.6% 45.4% 15 ND 211,063 119,914 6,931 8,664 60.9% 34.6% 3 OH 2,904,354 2,743,956 N/A 80,199 50.7% 47.9% 20 OK 869,148 512,002 N/A 13,951 62.3% 36.7% 7 OR 800,537 854,582 N/A 33,778 47.4% 50.6% 7 PA 2,636,463 2,679,419 N/A 53,696 49.1% 49.9% 21 RI 209,236 307,165 13,378 5,351 39.1% 57.4% 4 SC 958,439 660,879 13,152 11,508 58.3% 40.2% 8 SD 217,057 147,183 4,460 2,973 58.4% 39.6% 3 TN 1,327,809 1,004,126 16,539 14,176 56.2% 42.5% 11 TX 4,569,221 2,822,166 N/A 74,660 61.2% 37.8% 34 UT 614,659 255,056 18,025 13,519 68.2% 28.3% 5 VT 135,032 174,215 9,715 4,857 41.7% 53.8% 3 VA 1,693,700 1,481,988 N/A 32,078 52.8% 46.2% 13 WA 1,258,821 1,399,302 41,318 55,091 45.7% 50.8% 11 WV 394,177 342,568 6,732 4,488 52.7% 45.8% 5 WI 1,500,290 1,431,138 45,099 30,066 49.9% 47.6% 10 WY 129,249 67,079 3,068 5,113 63.2% 32.8% 3TOTAL 60,739,725 57,322,464 795k 1465k 50.5% 47.7% 311 227
50.48% 47.64% 0.66% 1.22%
ping
When JFnK wins, A supreme may be all that's left
for her. Although isn;t that usually reserved for
practicing lower judges?
MV
And what are those votes? :)
Isn't he. He sure sounds very confident in his analysis.
I've molded the current formula up against the last two elections. The only difference from the actual 2000 results, is New Mexico and Wisconsin.. This current formula had Bush narrowly (by less than 1 percent) winning both of those two states (where he narrowly lost them).
I also had him with slightly bigger leads in a few other states (Florida being one).
Nader's support collapsing on election day may have caused it, but there was also a slight underperformance of the GOP turnout.
All indications are there that GOP Turnout is going to be stronger this year.
For what it's worth, of course. Two almost-identical projections don't necessarily equate to fact.
Yaaa, its called wishful thinking!
MV
Happy Halloween
And the results were what??
Berman=Schmoe
No body changes their mind that much in the space of a week. Fox is wrong about Bush trailing among men. Bush is looking good in his own internals but the MSM don't know it yet. I'm already looking forward to Tuesday night.
hhhmmmm, I wonder?! I am so excited! Don't know if I can get them all in the habit, but it's a start!
Never, ever, forget that Hillary is the smartest human being on the planet. The smartest person in the history of humanity...the most intelligent life form in the universe...no, make that galaxy. We should be honored to have her on the Supreme Court bench...
You seem quite the pessimist? Why - Oh I forget its Halloween! ;-)
I believe a lot of people will be doing the same thing to Kerry. At the last second, vote for Bush instead.
I beg your pardon! The smartest people in the
universe are at the NIH in Bethesda! I'm at the
NIH in Bethesda!
I had't been able to cure Christopher Reeves
because I was distracted by the Space-time continuum
thing.
MV
In the Weekly Reader vote (something like 600,000 kids) Bush won overwhelmingly, as did Laura Bush's cookie recipe in the Family Circle First Lady/prospective first lady recipe contest (Teraaaayyyzzzaaa submitted a horrible Pumpkin Spice cookie recipe, looked like baby calf scours).
Those are supposedly accurate predictors also, and both show Bush winning . . .
So either way, there will be suspicions going down! :-)
The economic status of Hawaii was a very strong factor. Also having an incumbent party governor is also a helpful boost.
Everything is pointing towards a slim Bush victory there.
Also, I believe Bush caught a helpful "buzz" in Hawaii with the release of the recent polls. Bush and GOP have been running alot of ads on cable TV, while Kerry and DNC have focused on local stations.
No, I'm just scared.
MV
There's no way to program the DUI revelation in there. Your numbers might have been dead on.
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