[Momaw Nadon]

I went to TradeSports.com which is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things.

According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.

If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 286 Electoral Votes and John Kerry would receive 252 Electoral Votes.

If the weighted probabilities of President Bush winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then President Bush should get 276.24 Electoral Votes.

270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

[Momaw Nadon]

Previous projections:

2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 10/25/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 10/18/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 10/11/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 10/4/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/27/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/20/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/13/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/6/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/30/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/19/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/12/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/28/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/21/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/14/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/7/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/31/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/24/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/17/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/10/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/3/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/19/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/12/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/29/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/22/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/15/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/8/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/1/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004

[Momaw Nadon]

[Momaw Nadon]

[Momaw Nadon]

If you want on (or off) of the weekly TradeSports.com Projected Presidential Electoral Vote ping list, please let me know via FREEPmail.

[TomGuy]

I can't help but think the Kerry/lib/dems/complicit-msm have one more bucket of mud to sling today.

[ConservativeGreek]

Still up, thats good. The betting is on Bush. Hope the votes are!!!!

[Flashlight]

holy toledo 276?? wow, that means it's anybody's ballgame.

[KMC1]

Interesting...thanks for the post...

[RobFromGa]

And WI, MN, and NH makes 310 for Bush.

[San Jacinto]

The bettors better be right about OH and FL. No margin for error.

[tjwmason]

Most places I have seen are putting New Mexico in the Kerry pile, whereas the betting here has it for Bush at 61%.

Any local FReepers know what's going down there?

[G.Mason]

Thanks, as usual, for the ping.

BTW ... Have you played with this?

ELECTIONGUIDE_GRAPHIC/index_CALCULATOR

[starfish923]

I'm saving this until this weekend.
Great stuff for the around-the-meal discussion with friends and acquaintances.
Thanks for posting.

[GaltMeister]

Incredible so many people are putting money on The Fraud. Sheesh!

[Archie Bunker on steroids]

ORegon should be up at 40%. HEck W lost it bu less than 1% in 2000.....what's changed? Could be the surprise of the night.

[toomuchcoffee]

Peesh, I knew Bush won when I saw the Weekly Reader results. That's the best poll in the country and anyone that doesn't take it seriously is deluded.

[rface]

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

I am coming to work tomorrow - but I have taken Wed. and the rest of the week off as "vacation time" - I could have probably taken the rest of the week off as "sick time" since I have plenty of sick symptoms. I need a Valium or something

[FourtySeven]

I may have missed this before, but have you commented on how accurate these guys are with reguards to the last election? Were they around for 2000? If so, did they get that right too?

[slimer]

Interesting that Kerry is given a 1.7% chance in Massachusetts.

[Vision]

Are you making this chart up yourself, or is this somewhere on tradesports?