Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part VIII

NOAA - NHC ^ | 29 August 2005 | NOAA - NHC

[NautiNurse]

Category 4 Hurricane Katrina is approaching landfall in Eastern Louisiana. At 4:00AM EDT the storm's center was about 90 miles south of New Orleans.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Navy Storm Track
Katrina Track Forecast Archive Nice loop of each NHC forecast track for both three and five day
Forecast Models
Alternate Hurricane Models via Skeetobite
Bouy Data Louisiana/Mississippi
Buoy Data Florida

Lake Ponchartrain Real Time Water Level

Wind Speed Data

Images:

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Experimental Radar Subject to delays and outages - and well worth the wait

Mobile Long Range Radar Loop

New Orleans/Baton Rouge Radar

Ft. Polk, LA Long Range Radar Loop

Northwest Florida Long Range Radar

Storm Floater IR Loop
Storm Floater Still & Loop Options
Color Enhanced IR Loop

Other Resources:

Hurricane Wind Risk Very informative tables showing inland wind potential by hurricane strength and forward motion
Central Florida Hurricane Center
New Orleans Web Cams Loads of web cam sites here. The sites have been very slow due to high traffic
New Orleans Music Online Couldn't resist--love that jazz
Golden Triangle Weather Page Nice Beaumont weather site with lots of tracks and graphics
Hurricane City
Crown Weather Tropical Website Offers a variety of storm info, with some nice track graphics

Live streaming:

Cut and Paste:

http://www.wwltv.com/perl/common/video/wmPlayer.pl?title=beloint_khou&props=livenoad

Fully-linked version of the live feeds (just in case a few people don't want to first open up WMP to cut-and-paste) -

WWL-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_wwltv
WVTM-TV/DT Birmingham (WMP) - mms://a1256.l1289835255.c12898.g.lm.akamaistream.net/D/

1256/12898/v0001/reflector:35255
WDSU-TV/DT New Orleans (WMP) - http://mfile.akamai.com/12912/live/reflector:38202.asx
Hurricane City (Real Player) - http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
ABCNews Now (Real Player) - http://reallive.stream.aol.com/ramgen/redundant/abc/now_hi.rm
WKRG-TV/DT

Mobile (WMP) - mms://wmbcast.mgeneral.speedera.net/wmbcast

.mgeneral/wmbcast_mgeneral_aug262005_1435_95518 WDSU-TV/DT New Orleans via WESH-TV/DT Orlando - http://mfile.akamai.com/12912/live/reflector:38843.asx

Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part VII
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part VI
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part V
Hurricane Katrina, Live Thread, Part IV
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part III
Katrina Live Thread, Part II
Hurricane Katrina Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm 12

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[Wonder Warthog]

"Unfortunately, the Mississippi River is not static, and brings more silt every day, so eventually the storm needed to breach the levees will be much smaller than what would be required today."

Excuse me, but what do you think "Mississippi river silt" has to do with breaching levees?? The levees that might be breached are on Lake Ponchartrain---not the Mississippi, and the silt load of the Mississippi is dropped WAY out in the Gulf (which is why the swamplands are eroding---LACK of silt, not too much).

[don-o]

Said that the dome generates its own weather systems. Now that air conditioning is off, they could get rain and lighting inside the astro dome.

That's typical Art Bell type nit wittery.

[jacquej]

Right on, Mewzilla. I do not consider any of the efforts to predict what this storm might do as "hyping".

The reason is that while the weather people can pretty reliably predict the direction that a storm will move, and where it might hit, they do not have the ability to predict the intensity at all. The storms are just too unpredictable.

The key, from what I read is the eyewall replacement cycle, and this particular storm was looking like an "annular" hurricane, rather than a tropical hurricane, so whether the eyewall would replace was uncertain.

I am hoping and praying that it falls apart at the moment. But we will not know for a few hours yet, I fear.

[newzjunkey]

Well you can bet more MSM outlets will pimp Sharpton's and Martin Sheen's visits to kook Sheehan's camp from Sunday.

[beyond the sea]

Shep says glass is breaking in the French Quarter.

The dear boy dropped his Bloody Mary

;-)

[Northern Yankee]

SS, I think she was trying to say that IF a Storm of this magnitude doesn't do the predicted damage, that in the future people won't evacuate causing massive loss of life.

I am still worried about the storm surge. Reading about the hurricane of Sept. 21, 1938, that swept through Long Island, and the New England area, the storm surge was absolutely devastating.

I pray that isn't the case today.

[gopwinsin04]

The French Quarter.

[beyond the sea]

Right, that is what he said.

[newzjunkey]

One reporter said last night (?...time gets mixed up) said that they were not allowed to take cameras inside the Superdome.

That was a Fox reporter so they moved off to the W Hotel. Later, I saw shots from MSNBC inside the Superdome so I don't understand why Fox was kept out.

[spanalot]

Is that a current pic?

[NonValueAdded]

pressure now 918 mb

[Wonder Warthog]

It is going to rain for a week and all that water will be coming down the Mississippi, wnon't it?"

Actually, no. Most rainfall on south Louisiana drains away via the swamps and smaller rivers---not the Mississippi. Add to that that the Mississippi levees are designed to handle 3X the 1927 flood--an amount of water that is vastly larger than it is possible for any hurricane to "dump".

[gopwinsin04]

Sustained winds of 60 MPH within the city of New Orleans right now.

[justa-hairyape]

it's WHAT the wind is blowin'

There was a real interesting video last year from the strong Hurricane that ended up traveling over Orlando Florida from the south east. Video was from close to shore, and you could tell a strong wind gust >130 mph was coming, because you could see the things traveling in it.

[gopwinsin04]

Superdome power now out, no heat.

[Jim Noble]

No cause of death was known, but said to be possibly due to panicky stress.

It's Bush's fault!

[myprecious]

Only the center of the storm has made landfall. The back half of the storm is still coming. Hurricane force winds for another 3-4 hours. It ain't over.

[DB]

Heat isn't a problem...

Just the opposite...

[RobFromGa]

Weather prediction isn't perfect. FWIW, if the storm doesn't live up to its billing, I'd see that as cause for celebration, not a reason to kvetch.

If the hurricane doesn't destroy the city of New Orleans, and make the city permanently unihabitable, then some people are going to be disappointed. We will see the finger-pointing and accusations of hype, even though everyone could see a massive and well-organized system barreling into the LA coast just to start to fall apart right before landfall.

Whether this is due to water temps and depths along the coast, or interference of the ground on rotation, or whatever, maybe it is part of the reason that there has not been a Big One hit the Big Easy in a long long time.

For those who are disappointed that they don't get to see mass destruction (the city of New Orleans could still flood), just remember that this storm could have killed hundreds maybe even thousands of fellow Americans, caused tens of billions in damage, and destroyed irreplaceable historical buildings and artifacts.

And with this in mind, we should rejoice in the fact that the worst of this might still be avoided.

When I went to bed last night, it looked worst-case, now it looks somewhat better. Prayers from Georgia that it continues to fall apart over land, and continues to move forward faster.

[proud American in Canada]

Well, that will remain to be seen in the future. This was a LEGITIMATE storm with all the bad signs and proof to back it up that evacuation WAS necessary.

Absolutely. All you have to do is look at the size of that storm yesterday afternoon, the massive red spot with a huge eye that had kept on its predicted track headed straight for a city that is already under sea level.