Posted on 05/03/2006 11:03:31 AM PDT by blam
Chaos Feared in Pandemic Flu Plan
By LAURAN NEERGAARD, AP Medical Writer
45 minutes ago
WASHINGTON - A flu pandemic would cause massive disruptions lasting for months, and cities, states and businesses must make plans now to keep functioning — and not count on a federal rescue, the Bush administration said Wednesday.
"Our nation will face this global threat united in purpose and united in action in order to best protect our families, our communities, our nation and our world from the threat of pandemic influenza," President Bush said in a letter to Americans noting the release of an updated national pandemic response strategy.
Bush last fall proposed a $7.1 billion plan to prepare for the next worldwide outbreak of a super-strain of influenza. Wednesday's report updates that plan, an incremental step that basically outlines exactly which government agency is responsible for some 300 tasks, many already under way.
Even the most draconian steps, such as shutting down U.S. borders against outbreaks abroad, would almost certainly fail to keep a flu pandemic from spreading here, the report acknowledges — and thus it outlines more limited travel restrictions that would be used instead.
The goal is to slow the virus' spread, giving time for the nation to brew protective vaccine, dispense stockpiles of critical medical supplies — and limit the almost inevitable economic and social chaos.
In a severe pandemic, up to 40 percent of the work force could be off the job for two weeks, the report estimates. Because 85 percent of the systems that are vital to society — food production, medicine and financial services — are privately run, the administration aimed to use the new report to energize businesses in particular to start planning how they will keep running under those conditions.
"No less important will be the actions of individual citizens, whose participation is necessary to the success of these efforts," Bush added.
Of the $7.1 billion pandemic preparation plan, White House spokesman Scott McClellan said earlier, "This would really be a road map. It will cover both the government and nongovernment actions that are being taken to plan and prepare for any potential pandemic."
A draft of the document, obtained Monday by The Associated Press, provides little new information on government preparations.
The messy medical reality is that people can spread flu a full day before they show symptoms, meaning even shutting U.S. borders against outbreaks abroad offers no reassurance that a super-strain isn't already incubating here.
The government is preparing for a worst-case scenario of up to 2 million deaths in the United States.
Once a pandemic begins, expect massive disruptions with as much as 40 percent of the work force off the job for a few weeks at a time, even if the government slowed the spread by limiting international flights, quarantining exposed travelers and otherwise restricting movement around the country, the document says.
"Local communities will have to address the medical and nonmedical impacts of the pandemic with available resources," the report warned, because federal officials won't be able to offer the kind of aid expected after hurricanes or other one-time, one-location natural disasters.
A flu pandemic instead would roll through the country, causing six to eight weeks of active infection per community. And the report doesn't actually put anyone in charge of checking whether vital businesses are heeding various warnings.
Few are, suggests a survey that found 66 percent of mid- to large-sized companies have made no preparations, said former Health and Human Services Secretary Tommy Thompson, whose new Deloitte Center for Health Solutions conducted the survey.
Businesses and local governments need specific instructions, he said.
"Everybody is asking, 'Well, we want to do something. How do we do it?'" said Thompson, who heard those questions Tuesday while addressing pandemic preparations at a Michigan law-enforcement conference. "We've got to be much more specific."
The incremental plan was drawing complaints Tuesday that despite months of dire talk about the threat of a pandemic, the Bush administration hasn't accomplished enough.
"Other nations have been implementing their plans for years, but we're reading ours for the first time now. These needless delays have put Americans at risk," complained Sen. Edward Kennedy (news, bio, voting record), D-Mass.
Influenza pandemics strike every few decades when a never-before-seen strain arises. It's impossible to predict when the next will occur, although concern is rising that the Asian bird flu, called the H5N1 strain, might lead to one if it starts spreading easily from person to person.
___
On the Net:
Heath and Human Services Department site on pandemic flu: http://www.pandemicflu.gov
My brother in law owns a large travel agency, he says the travel industry is 'freaking-out' over the pandemic prospects.
Also, Intel has a 12 person board in place that is already dealing with Bird Flu complications and planning. They have already signed agreements with private airline leasing companies to transport their overseas employees to the US. They already have employees overseas panicing and demanding to come home, etc.
Our 'Just In Time' (JIT)economy will cause us severe problems if/when a panic develops...the stores will be stripped suddenly and that will drive more panic. Prepare now even if you do not believe a pandemic is coming.
Anybody have any stats on past diseases that originally were transmitted as Avian Flu is now, and then mutated to allow transmission from human to human? I'd be curious as to how long the disease took to mutate. The threat of avian flu has been out for a while, and as I remember several months ago, scientists were speculating avian flu to be nearing the point of mutation, but it has not occurred.
Eat more cow.
May 3 (Bloomberg) -- State and local health officials will be responsible for coordinating the fight against a global outbreak of lethal influenza, according to President George W. Bush's latest blueprint for handling a pandemic.
State governments can't expect much federal aid if a lethal bird flu such as the H5N1 virus mutates into a form that begins spreading quickly among people, according to the plan released by the White House today.
While the federal government is creating a road map to reduce the risk of a pandemic and its transmission, ``the center of gravity of the pandemic response, however, will be in communities,'' the report said.
The document elaborates on a preliminary $7.1 billion plan released in November for speeding production of flu vaccines, stockpiling medicines, strengthening surveillance and helping states prepare for a pandemic. A lethal flu outbreak in the U.S. may cause between 200,000 and 2 million deaths and disrupt everything from the movement of goods and services to the operations of schools and universities, the report said.
Congress has approved $3.8 billion of the administration's request, with additional money pending in a catch-all spending bill now in the Senate.
Insufficient federal oversight would set the stage for another Katrina-like disaster, said U.S. Representative Rahm Emanuel, an Illinois Democrat.
``There are still people in the Gulf Coast today who are waiting for relief,'' Emanuel said today in an e-mailed statement. ``Pandemic flu brought to you by the same folks who brought you Hurricane Katrina.''
H5N1 Virus Deaths
H5N1, a flu that mainly affects birds, has spread from Asia to Africa, the Middle East and Europe. The virus has killed at least 113 of 205 people known to have been infected since late 2003, the World Health Organization said on April 27.
The virus is one of at least four that may mutate into a form that could spread quickly among people, Robert Webster, a flu expert at St. Jude Children's Research Hospital in Memphis, Tennessee, said today. Strains called H2, H9 and H7 also may change into forms that can be passed easily from human to human, he said at a conference in Singapore.
American businesses from stockbrokers and insurance agents to steelmakers and autoworkers should ``assume that up to 40 percent of their staff may be absent for periods of about two weeks at the height of the pandemic wave,'' according to the report prepared by the Homeland Security Council.
The report aims to alert the private sector, which accounts for 85 percent of all entities in the U.S., such as banks, hospitals and food production to manufacturing.
Potential Damage
``While the pandemic will not damage power lines, banks or computer networks, it has the potential ultimately to threaten all critical infrastructure'' as people get sick and leave the workplace ``for weeks or months.''
In the event of an outbreak, employers should substitute teleconferences for face-to-face meetings and adopt liberal leave policies for workers with sick family members to reduce the risk of disease transmission. Authorities also urged that people at work maintain a distance of three feet (0.9 meters) to reduce the risk of getting sick.
Many state health and disaster officials are still adjusting to the burden or responsibility from a pandemic. When Health and Human Services Secretary Michael Leavitt brought that message to Tennessee, ``there were many people who seemed to be getting the word for the first time,'' said William Schaffner, a Vanderbilt University influenza specialist who consults to the government on immunization issues.
Health Workers
``People from hospital associations and businesses were saying `We have to get on with it,' '' Schaffner said in a telephone interview today. ``Even people from health departments were spurred to greater activity.''
While New York State disaster officials haven't finished their plan for pandemic flu, they are expecting significant involvement from their federal counterparts, said Dennis Michalski, a spokesman for the agency in Albany.
``If there is a pandemic, we have to assume the feds are going to be here,'' he said in a telephone interview. ``This would be a national event of special significance; we're going to be looking for support.''
Unlike a hurricane, a pandemic might require state and local health officials to administer responses on their own, said Vanderbilt's Schaffner. While hurricanes and tornados strike in one place, a pandemic can hit great portions of the country simultaneously.
``As powerful as the federal government is, it cannot be the cavalry that comes over the hill to every community,'' he said. ``What we need are local initiatives and coping mechanisms to minimize the damage and quickly as possible restore function.''
Vaccine, Drug Stockpiles
The Bush Administration still plans to have enough bird-flu vaccine stockpiled for 20 million people, according to the report released today. Supplies of antiviral drugs would be sufficient to treat 75 million people with the goal of reducing the severity of the disease and limiting the spread.
The government now has 40 million doses of flu vaccine for use in poultry if an outbreak occurs, the report said, and there are plans to expand the number to 110 million doses to protect the $29 billion U.S. industry.
To contact the reporter on this story:
Viola Gienger in Washington at vgienger@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: May 3, 2006 12:39 EDT
Fox just had a report on this and stated that this threat which was compared to the 1918 flu, is not anywhere by comparison.
Many died from secondary infections. That wouldn't happen today.
I have extra food and water but just like Y2K, I feel it's a be prepared but not upset situation.
It also gives a general over-view of the possible JIT problems.
We've been preparing for months, for anything headed our way. Be it disease or terrorism attack. Some of my family think my hubby and I have gone off the deep end.
I believe the Red Cross and HS has revised their 72 hours of supplies to 2 weeks worth. I'll see if I can find it if you want?
Agreed. We can always eat the food we have by rotating. Better to have it and not need it, than need it and not have it.
Am thinking it is already spreading from very close contact based on current cases that WHO is reporting. Am referring to recent cases in England and elsewhere were family members or those living in close proximity all were infected.
After Katrina they had better start making preparations. The lack of well orchestrated emergency plans there resulted in chaos.
STOP the illegal aliens from flooding in NOW!!! They already spread TB and brought in disease!
What if they bring in and spread a flu pandemic?
With 20 million already here and limited supply of vaccine who would you prefer to get that vaccine to save lives, you and your family or the illegal alien invader criminals?
Kick the illegals out now and close the border now before it's to late!
Yeah, right. Katrina painfully pointed out that there is a considerable segment of society that cannot/will not participate in their own safety and well-being.
>>We can always eat the food we have by rotating.<<
That is exactly what we do.
Don't forget more ammo.
Perpetuating the State of FEAR...
My fear is that we'll have a food panic before the Bird Flu arrives but, that will be the best time to have it.
Certain segments will be very unhappy when they get the word last and arrive at the stores to find nothing there. You know who's gonna be blamed...I'm prepared to not take any blame though.
Do you think that Mexico is doing anything to prepare? Mexico's plans are to shove as many illegals north as possible so that the U.S. can deal with the problem. If the virus mutates it is most likely to take hold initially in South America and Mexico and then vector north across our border.
What is the basis for the Red Cross recommendation to store supplies to last several days to a week? Red Cross recommendations to have food, water, and other emergency supplies on hand are not new, and are considered reasonable in case of any disaster. Our recommendations are to have supplies to last several days to a week. Most reasonable people would not consider such quantities of supplies as a "stockpile" or "hoarding."
Some families may choose to store supplies to last several weeks or more. Certainly, if they wish to do so, they may. It is always wise to have sufficient food and water supplies on hand in case access to such supplies may be disrupted by a disaster.
That's what we're doing. Caculating what and how much we need for specific number of people.
Washington Post, April 16, 2006
Homeland Security's Runge has a different concern: "One of the scariest thoughts is, if this country has successfully developed a vaccine within six months of an outbreak or our supply of antivirals is greater,
there may be a rush into the United States for those things."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/04/15/AR2006041500901_pf.html
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