08/10/06 FOX News Poll: 2006 Election Anti-Incumbent Fever; Job Ratings (Not Good for Republicans)

Fox News ^ | Thursday, August 10, 2006 | Dana Blanton

[UncleJeff]

NEW YORK — As the midterm elections approach, voters say they are much more likely to support a challenger over the incumbent candidate, according to a new FOX News Poll. In addition, "throw the bums out" is a popular choice when voters pick bumper sticker wording to describe the main reason for their vote for Congress this year. President Bush’s job rating is unchanged this month holding steady at 36 percent approval...

If the election were held today, 48 percent of Americans say they would vote for the Democratic candidate in their congressional district and 30 percent for the Republican candidate. This 18-percentage point edge is up from an 8-point advantage in mid-July and a 13-point lead in June...

Among those saying Iraq will be very important to their vote, 48 percent say they plan to back the Democratic candidate and 31 percent the Republican candidate in the upcoming election...

[CurlyBill]

If this trend doesn't turn around, and the news out of Iraq doesn't improve dramatically, at least one (and maybe both) House of Congress will change hands in January, giving Democrats subpoena power which they will surely use "liberally".

Iraq is going VERY WELL. The news coming out of there is tainted by the lerftist media. Unfortunately, even some "conservatives" are buying into this crap about the war not going well...

[woofie]

I was at DU and it looks like Karl Rove has everything fixed ..he got 50 Al Qaeda Muslims to try to hijack planes in Engand...He is smart.

[FlingWingFlyer]

I guess FOX thinks that Americans are pissed off and in an impeachment mood. We'll see. I'm just not buying it. I think Americans are a little smarter than that and a hell of a lot smarter than the media.

[af_vet_1981]

I guess Republicans should then stay away from Fox News polls.

LOL

You are so right.

[Ma3lst0rm]

National polls can not predict the outcome of individual races. I do believe Republicans need to fight like they've never fought before but what I think these polls reflect more than anything is the increasing polarization not voting trends. It is hard given the hyper politicization to get a representative sample of the public. If this were a Presidential election then this would be a problem but this is not.

[hole_n_one]

Earlier this week on his radio program, Limbaugh read article headline after article headline with the same sentiment and tone of the one you posted suggesting that the GOP was in grave danger and in an all but hopeless position for the upcoming election in about 3 months.

All the articles were written prior to November.........2004

[goldfinch]

Except for the threat of an impeachment of W, I really don't mind the Republicans getting their butts kicked. They have spent money like drunken sailors for several years, offer consistently weak support the President and war publicly, and waste their time on things like flag amendments. Maybe it is time for a little house cleaning.

Of course, there is the small matter of the Democrats waiving the white flag in the war on terror. But who cares. Buy stock in a burka factory, sit back and get rich.

[traditional1]

What the hell kind of question is "If you didn't know anything about the candidates, would you be more likely to vote for the challenger, or the incumbent?"

Only imbeciles (the Democrat voter-base) would even answer such a question. Their vote is ALWAYS "D", and they don't care or know anything about the issues or the candidate's positions, they just know they always vote Democrat.

[Right_in_Virginia]

Old news. Let them poll now after the al-qaeda has attempted to take out the five planes.

Bingo!

[Mo1]

Democrats (63 percent) and independents (51 percent) are much more likely than Republicans (22 percent) to say they would vote for the challenger

How many of those indy's are really dems?

[kabar]

So why do incumbents get reelected 98% of the time? In the House, there are less than 40 competitive seats. Gerrymandering has made most races non-competitive. The only most incumbents leave is through retirement. Then they have their kids run for the seat.

[Tzimisce]

but how many actually said they'd go vote?

[FreeReign]

So why do incumbents get reelected 98% of the time?

But, but maybe only 97% will get reelected this year.

The MSM sure can try.

[Torie]

You don't really think that 95% of GOP voters will follow through and turn out in a midterm election do you, or any election for that matter? But yes, the problem despite what you read on FR, is not so much with GOP voters, except in a few places. It is with the "independents."

[weegee]

"President Bush’s job rating is unchanged this month holding steady at 36 percent approval"

What's Congress' job approval rating?

[dawn53]

Cynthia McKinney was an incumbent, and so was Joe Lieberman. Democratic incumbents seem to be having a hard time themselves, LOL.

[marvlus]

Let's see what the polls say in a few days. Today's activities could change them drastically!

[KoRn]

John Kerry was winning by 20 points on election day in many battle ground states, until they started counting votes.....

[UncleJeff]

The assessment of the job Congress is doing continues to be abysmal, as more than twice as many Americans say they disapprove (58 percent) as approve (24 percent).

[DrDeb]

I just posted the following on the DOSE:
[EEE: click on the link for a DETAILED overview of the poll cited at your link!]

IGNORE ALL POLLING DATA FROM THE MSM (including OpinionDynamics/FoxNews and Rasmussen -- OD oversamples Democrats by 5-8 points and Rasmussen is now oversampling Democrats/Democrat-leaning Independents by 4 1/2 points vs EVEN at the beginning of the year).

The following information is all you need to know!
[Thank you Howlin, ohiowfan, et al, for pinging me to a related FR thread!]

BASE MOBILIZATION SURVEY FINDINGS & CONCLUSIONS

. . . Overall support for President Bush and congressional Republicans from the Republican base is very strong.

The generic congressional vote from Republicans is an overwhelming 84% to 6% within sampling error of what we found for the 2004 election. An equally impressive 88% to 11% majority of Republicans approve of the way the president is handling his job!

You can read a very detailed analysis of this poll at
http://www.usnews.com/usnews/news/articles/060809/RNC_memo.pdf