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Washington Post-ABC News Poll (Fred Thompson surging in Iowa!)
The Washington Post ^ | Tuesday, November 20, 2007

Posted on 11/21/2007 11:56:00 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet

This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone November 14-18, 2007, among a random sample of 400 Iowans likely to vote in the Republican caucus. The results have a five percentage point margin of sampling error. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa. *= less than 0.5 percent --snip--

4. (FOR SCREENING PURPOSES) If the caucuses were being held today, would you attend the (Democratic Party caucus) or the (Republican Party caucus) in your precinct? Democratic caucus Republican caucus 11/18/07 0 100 7/31/07 0 100

5. If the Republican caucus were being held today, and the candidates were: (Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, Tom Tancredo, Ron Paul, and Fred Thompson), who would you support? NET LEANED VOTE: (Continued)

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Extended News; Politics/Elections; US: Iowa; US: Tennessee
KEYWORDS: advertising; caucuses; conservatives; election; electionpresident; elections; endorsements; fredthompson; gop; ia2008; nrlc; nrtl; polls; republicans; righttolife; valuesvoters
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Spiff ought to be along any minute now to tell us why this poll is an outlier and doesn't mean anything

Would that be before or after he tells us how the latest ARG or Zogby poll shows the inevitability of Romney?

21 posted on 11/21/2007 12:06:43 PM PST by kevkrom ("Should government be doing this? And if so, then at what level of government?" - FDT)
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To: Captain Kirk; Admin Moderator

“Since when is a two point gain to 15 percent a “surge.””

Agreed.

Title abuse, if not more


22 posted on 11/21/2007 12:06:58 PM PST by Shermy ("A rising tide lifts all boats" ...but lowers those on the other side of the ocean.)
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To: iowamark
Of course, there is also a 70% chance that Romney may change his mind on any issue.

So, he's getting more consistent now?

23 posted on 11/21/2007 12:07:30 PM PST by kevkrom ("Should government be doing this? And if so, then at what level of government?" - FDT)
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To: Wonder Warthog

I think the main part of that story is Huckabee.


24 posted on 11/21/2007 12:07:31 PM PST by Old Retired Army Guy (tHE)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I don’t understand where you got that subtitle.


25 posted on 11/21/2007 12:07:52 PM PST by Petronski (Reject the liberal troika: romney, giuliani, mccain)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

a surge from 13% to 15%....That’s HUGH!


26 posted on 11/21/2007 12:08:09 PM PST by rface (kooky inside and out)
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To: UKTory

It’s all about perception. If Mr. Thompson places third in Iowa, when he isn’t expected to, he will “surge” in South Carolina, Florida and Nevada.


27 posted on 11/21/2007 12:08:29 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (Your "dirt" on Fred is about as persuasive as a Nancy Pelosi Veteran's Day Speech)
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To: Kaslin
psst, did you look. Your guy went down 2 points

SPEEEEEEW - you owe me a keyboard. LOL

28 posted on 11/21/2007 12:08:53 PM PST by TexasRedeye (Eschew obfuscation)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
There are no Fred Thompson supporters in Iowa.
Not a single one.


29 posted on 11/21/2007 12:09:54 PM PST by McGruff (A "Big Time" Fred Thompson supporter!)
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To: Shermy; Admin Moderator

He is surging from where he was recently, not from July!


30 posted on 11/21/2007 12:10:19 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (Your "dirt" on Fred is about as persuasive as a Nancy Pelosi Veteran's Day Speech)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

And the voters must have found out how pro-illegal alien the Huckster is.


31 posted on 11/21/2007 12:10:48 PM PST by NeoCaveman ("Don't doubt me" - El Rushbo, alternative tagline: Hunter/Pissant 2008)
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To: Captain Kirk
"Since when is a two point gain to 15 percent a “surge.”?

Well, we un-informed folks who see it as a gain of 15% (13% to 15% is a 15.4% increase, for me by taking off both shoes and using all my fingers, too) from previous levels in the poll (simple math, I reckon) as pretty much a surge, but then, we're not as astute as others who are wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy more knowledgable than us.

If your "candidate" had a 15% increase in his poll numbers, would you consider that significant?

32 posted on 11/21/2007 12:11:11 PM PST by traditional1
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To: Petronski
"I don’t understand where you got that subtitle."

At "Subtitles 'R' Us" of course.

33 posted on 11/21/2007 12:11:36 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (Your "dirt" on Fred is about as persuasive as a Nancy Pelosi Veteran's Day Speech)
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To: RockinRight
Fred can take about half of Huckabee’s support and siphon off a little of Mitt’s and Rudy’s and win this thing.

That and a good chunk of the undecided vote makes this very doable for Fred.

34 posted on 11/21/2007 12:12:59 PM PST by Route66 (America's Main Street - - - President Fred D. Thompson /"The Constitution means what is says.")
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

“It’s all about perception. If Mr. Thompson places third in Iowa, when he isn’t expected to, he will “surge” in South Carolina, Florida and Nevada.”

If Romney places first and Huckabee second, then presumably they will experience even more of a ‘surge’ in those states.


35 posted on 11/21/2007 12:13:36 PM PST by UKTory
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
He’s working on a chart now, he was interrupted since he had to read the latest CYA talking points after that Romney care post and the young couple killed by the guy released by the Democrat Judge Mitt the "Conservative" appointed...
36 posted on 11/21/2007 12:14:03 PM PST by ejonesie22 (Mitt Romney, Republican Conservative?)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

What a difference 8 years can make...
this is from January of 2000 NYT:


But Iowans often make up their minds at the last minute, and polls suggest that they have not made their final caucus decisions yet.

‘’Politics is Muzak to a lot of people,’’ said David Yepsen, the chief political reporter for the Des Moines Register. ‘’They don’t pay attention until they have to, and that’s getting later and later. In the governor’s race last year, Tom Vilsack came from 25 points behind in the last three weeks to win by five points.’’

In this year’s Democratic contest, Mr. Bradley, a former senator from New Jersey, has decided to devote all or part of every day until the caucuses to campaigning here. A certain languor still marks his personal style, and he still tries to cast himself as a different kind of politician, who accentuates the positive. One day this week, he bent his 6-foot, 5-inch frame around a lectern and chatted for half an hour with schoolchildren about health.

But Mr. Bradley’s words in other contexts have taken on an edge, whether he is accusing Vice President Gore of neglecting the interests of Iowa farmers, many of whom have been left behind in the Clinton-era boom, or attacking him as a reliable friend of the big tobacco companies.


LOL!


37 posted on 11/21/2007 12:15:14 PM PST by Liberty Valance (Keep a simple manner for a happy life :o)
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To: ejonesie22

He can take all the time he wants, IMO.


38 posted on 11/21/2007 12:15:20 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (Your "dirt" on Fred is about as persuasive as a Nancy Pelosi Veteran's Day Speech)
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To: UKTory

Huckabee won’t do a think once people realize he’s in no way a conservative.


39 posted on 11/21/2007 12:16:36 PM PST by RockinRight (Just because you're pro-life and talk about God a lot doesn't mean you're a conservative.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Amen...


40 posted on 11/21/2007 12:17:41 PM PST by ejonesie22 (Mitt Romney, Republican Conservative?)
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