Posted on 01/11/2008 12:19:28 PM PST by Checkers
With Michigan, South Carolina, Nevada and Florida as rest stops on the way to Super Tuesday, and with the collective credibility of pundits and pollsters shattered after Obama's staggering, run-away win in New Hampshire, it has begun to dawn on the commentariat that they have no idea what is going on in the presidential race, and that voters may be troublingly insistent on casting ballots for whomever they want regardless of the results predicted by the pros.
The GOP side is particularly scrambled, and as poster Thunder at RedState illustrates by a look ahead at the February 5 winner-take-all states:
"Rudy Giuliani is expected to win New Jersey and New York on Super Tuesday, February 5, 2008, and those states award their delegates on a winner-take-all basis.
John McCain will likely win Arizona, which is another winner-take-all state, giving him 53 delegates on Super Tuesday.
Mike Huckabee should win the winner-take-all state of Georgia, to earn him 72 points on Super Tuesday.
Mitt Romney is strong in the winner-take-all states of Massachusetts, Vermont and Utah, which yield a total of 96 delegates.
Fred Thompson can be expected to win the winner-take-all state of Tennessee, assuming he wins a majority of the votes, for a total of 55 delegates.
Total winner take out numbers Rudy Giuliani 153 Mitt Romney 96 Mike Huckabee 72 Fred Thompson 55 John McCain 53"
We can confidently look forward to waking up on Wednesday February 6 with every GOP candidate claiming some victories and many delegates, and the outline of a convention fight looming in the not-far-off distance.
No one is headed for the sidelines soon, not even Fred with the fewest votes cast in the first two contests, and certainly not Romney with the most votes and delegates as of today. Even a second place in Michigan --another open primary like Iowa and New Hampshire in which the Republican preference is obscured by the votes of Independants and even Democrats-- won't sideline Romney, despite the demands of Manhattan-Beltway scribblers and talkers. Romney raised more than $5 million the day after a second place finish in New Hampshire, and the campaign was energized by the obvious loyalty of the base Romney has built over the past year. That base will harvest delegates from now until St. Paul and put Romney in a commanding position at the convention if he simply stays in the game, and may possibly deliver the nomination if he surprises anywhere between now and the end of voting in Texas and Ohio on March 4.
But what about the McCain surge and his big win in New Hampshire? "John McCain will not get the base of the Republican Party," former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum told me this week, and Santorum proceeded to list the ways in which McCain has rejected conservative policies over the years:
"John McCain was the guy who was working with Ted Kennedy to drive it down our throats, and lectured us repeatedly about how xenophobic we were, lectured us, us being the Republican conference, about how wrong we were on this, how we were on the wrong side of history, and that you know, this is important for his…because having come from Arizona, knowing the strength of the Hispanic community, that we were going to be seen as racists, and he wasn’t going be part of that, that he was not a racist, and that if we were for tougher borders, it was a racist thing. Look, John McCain looks at things through the eyes, on these kind of domestic policy issues, looks at it through the eyes of the New York Times editorial board, and accepts that predisposition that if you are not, if you stand for conservative principles, there’s some genetic defect."
and
"[McCain's] not with us on almost all of the core issues of…on the economic side, he was against the President’s tax cuts, he was bad on immigration. On the environment, he’s absolutely terrible. He buys into the complete left wing environmentalist movement in this country. He is for bigger government on a whole laundry list of issues. He was…I mean, on medical care, I mean, he was for re-importation of drugs. I mean, you can go on down the list. I mean, this is a guy who on a lot of the core economic issues, is not even close to being a moderate, in my opinion. And then on the issue of, on social conservative issues, you point to me one time John McCain every took the floor of the United States Senate to talk about a social conservative issue. It never happened. I mean, this is a guy who says he believes in these things, but I can tell you, inside the room, when we were in these meetings, there was nobody who fought harder not to have these votes before the United States Senate on some of the most important social conservative issues, whether it’s marriage or abortion or the like. He always fought against us to even bring them up, because he was uncomfortable voting for them. So I mean, this is just not a guy I think in the end that washes with the mainstream of the Republican Party."
This is the complete conservative critique of John McCain, and all the efforts by the MSM to encourage Republican voters to turn their eyes away from it will not work. GOP activists and conervative loyalists have been poked in those eyes too many times by Senator McCain over the past eight years to lose the memories of those assaults.
Which is not to say that Romney will win the nomination, though I hope he does. Fred Thompson rose up out of his political grave in last night's debate and hammered Mike Huckabee in terms every conservative understood to be devastatingly true. And Rudy is waiting in Florida having successfully defined victory as victory there. Huck will take his guitar and a sack of southern delegates to St. Paul, and his fans are indifferent to policy arguments.
What will decide this thing? The Luntz focus groups on Sunday and Thursday night which went overwhelmingly to Romney and Thompson respectively tell us what Republican voters prize most of all: Fight in their candidates. This may be because of what we know lies ahead in the fall, when not just an energized Dem nominee assaults them day after day, but when Soros et al unleash their tens of millions and the leftie nutroots scream BushCo and Halliburton at the top of their virtual lungs 24/7. The GOP knows it will need a fighter full of energy and optimism who will both argue the case for Reagan conservatism and do so with the graciousness and charm that will be a sharp contrast with the angry left.
Which brings us back to Senator McCain. His debate performance last night was wobbly, with meandering answers and an occasional grimace or misplaced wink. He fell back on his tired answers and many were exact repeats of Sunday night's programming. When he wandered through answer after answer it gradually dawned that he is indeed way past his prime, a Bob Dole without the energy. Sure, he tramps from event to event, but at 71 he is not the same maverick he was at 63 when the McCain phenomenon swept New Hampshire and Michigan before running into conservative reality in South Carolina. Even the McCain enthusiasts watch this aging warrior and know that he could no more win in the fall than Dole could in '96. Politics is not exclusively a young man's game, but it is most definitely not an old man's game either.
A GOP vote for McCain is a vote for a shattered base and a desultory campaign in the fall. It is a vote for lecture after lecture on global warming, campaign finance reform, and the bridge to nowhere. It is a vote for an old warrior way past his prime and the prospect of three debates against Barack Obama in which the age and energy gap goes unremarked upon while devastatingly obvious.
"[W]e’re looking at the media trying to make Barack Obama the president, and make John McCain the shill for him," Rick Santorum told me. "I think they know that John McCain can’t win this election," he concluded.
Of course they are. Of course they do. But the GOP voters won't fall for it.
ping
If Fred can take out the Huckster in GA, that’s 137 winner take all delegates. Certainly doable.
An interesting take. This race could drag on for months.
This is beginning to give me a headache.....(chuckle)
Have a good weekend.
I will be voting against him.
Not McCain, Not Huck. They are running in the wrong party.
Hugh Hewitt Creates 'Romneytown' Deep in Guyana jungle
In a detailed announcement Thursday night, talk radio personality Hugh Hewitt announced the formation of a new community centered around Republican Presidential candidate Mitt Romney. Located in the South American nation of Guyana, Romneytown will reclaim approximately 3,800 acres (15.4 km²) of jungle purchased from the nation's government...
"There can be no objective argument against moving to Romneytown," Hewitt said. "Anyone who denies it is not to be trusted as an analyst."...
I noticed McCain was starting to sound like an environmentalist. He was talking about how the Teddy Roosevelt Republican party had once been the leader in environmentalism. That is true. We should remember that the draconian Endangered Species Act that has destroyed the rural economy of the west came from Nixon. Sounds like more of the same would be in store from McCain.
Anyone seen polling to support this?
He does have a history of going berserk,
McCain and Stem Cell Research Round-up
SEN. JOHN McCAIN: THE ULTIMATE "RHINESTONE HERO"
SEN. JOHN McCAIN: THE ULTIMATE "RHINESTONE HERO" Part II
U.S. Sen. John McCain is no War Hero
John McCain: The Manchurian Candidate
McCain Is Booed by Labor Activists
McCain Rides to Kerry's Rescue: "John Kerry is Not Weak on Defense" (Today Show alert)
John McCain SCREAMS AT 9/11 FSA MEMBERS FOR OPPOSING HIS BILL TO GIVE AMNESTY FOR ILLEGALS
A number of articles on McCain. (some the same as above)
McCain Seeks to Change California Primary
McCain/Soros by Rabbi Areyh Spero
Soros' "Reform" (an article about Soros‘ instrumental hand in McCain/Feingold)
Not Child‘s Play [McCain/Schumer bill could effect FR?]
McCain's Letter (McCain aligns with Global Enviro activists)
The Turning Point on Global Warming (McCain and Lieberman Op-Ed Alert)
Climate bill sets stage for debate (Sens. McCain, Obama, and Lieberman join forces)
McCain: Global warming is fact, must be addressed [hurl alert]
McCain Looked into Caucusing with Democrats
McCain Still Disliked by Fiscal Conservatives (Club For Growth)
John McCain Goes Left for Money
McCain, Obama Make Deal on Financing
Sens. Snowe, Collins to head Maine exploratory committee for McCain
Double Talk Express. McCain in his own words. VIDEO
More YOUTUBE - McCain On Abortion (UH OH! YouTube Has a Video of Him in 1999)
How Cindy McCain was outed for drug addiction(stole drugs from the American Voluntary Medical Team)
John McCain: Hypocrite by Mark R. Levin
McCain and his Chicom Connections: Posts #17 and #18 by Calpernia
TEN REASONS NOT TO SUPPORT MCCAIN (Free Republic thread from 2000)
It depends on the meaning of “never” (McCain's Convenient Memory) **NEW**
McCain Ties to Lobbyists Troublesome - Newsmax Staff
McCain Sides With Leading Dems on Global Warming (NH voter reminder ALERT
The Conservative Case Against John McCain In 2008
McCain Blames Bush For Osama's Escape
************************************************************************
Why don't you shut your political pie hole?
Stifling the www? Online Freedom of Speech Act (H.R. 1606)
"1606 is needed because federal courts have ordered the Federal Election Commission to regulate "electioneering communications" on the Internet because of the Bipartisan Campaign Finance Reform Act (McCain-Feingold). If H.R. 1606 fails to become law, your Web site or blog could be shut down for the 30 days prior to a primary election and the 60 days prior to a general election should you express "electioneering communications."
ARRGGGHHH!!! I wish voters would put a stake in this guy's campaign. The man is a loose cannon. I am completely mystified that McCain has any appeal. I was sure he would be a non-factor by now.
Seems the other candidates don’t want to rag on McCain because of his POW history.
Screw that! He might have been a Conservative before the Hanoi Hilton but, he sure isn’t one now.
This is completely wrong. McCain worked nonstop from 5am to 11pm everyday up here in NH and never once appeared tired. Reagan was an old man as well and I think I heard his named mentioned about 30 times last night. If you look at the realclearpolitics.com polls of potential matchups, McCain beats Clinton and Obama rather easily.
The far right wing does not deserve to have the final say in choosing a candidate...you are responsible for the loss of congress in '06 due to you unquestioned support of Rumsfeld and Bush's failed war planning (along with 25,000 needless casualties in Iraq until the surge was forced on them by moderate republicans). If the far right wins and puts up Thompson, then get used to President Hillary. Now is the time to build a center-right coalition in order to win. Yes you have to stray slightly from your core beliefs but do you think a Democrat president and congress would be better?
You can't have it all my friends on the far right, and you will wind up with nothing if you continue with the "my way or the highway" approach to this election.
Could not find any polls whatsoever on GA. I find it very difficult to believe that it is not extremely fertile ground for Fred.
Tell me friend, what am I going to have to give up to keep a Republican in the White House?
Lower taxes?
Less spending?
Right to life?
Marriage classified as being between a man and a woman?
The Second Amendment?
Resurrecting amnesty for illegal aliens?
Two (or more) of these giveaways will keep me from voting for a Republican. McCain, except for Iraq, has been on the wrong side of most conservative issues.
You call yourself a sensible centrist, but you sound more like a Democrat. You also sound like you've got your own "my way or the highway" attitude.
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