Posted on 01/28/2008 7:00:07 AM PST by Momaw Nadon
If Mccain is the nominee, every red state is in play. He would likely be stronger in OH among independents than, perhaps, Bush . . . but I still think he would lose due to increased Dem turnout and depressed conservative turnout.
Right now, I don't see any Republican winning OH.
I think if our first four primaries were AZ, WI, TX, and say, WA, you'd still have pretty much the same candidates, if a different order of victories.
Seems pretty accurate to me. Only about five states could be said to be in play.
Thanks for the link.
Polls aren’t as accurate as prediction markets.
The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets The Liberty Papers ^ |
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts
The funny thing I see, over and over and over is that some freeper points out that “on some particular incident X, the Prediction Markets got it wrong” as if that somehow negates the overall effectiveness of Prediction Markets versus Poll Results.
But in this election cycle, the process was taken one step further. Poll results are generated by the MSM, and the MSM demonstrates a huge liberal bias and they obviously tilted the polls to show anticonservative results. Those polls were used to exclude the most conservative candidate from the debates in the EARLIEST PRIMARIES. So, we had biased media conducting biased polls and using that biased data to exclude the candidate they didn’t like, even though he had won a delegate and some of those jerks who had higher poll results hadn’t a single delegate to their name.
On Poll Results and the End of Conservatism
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1951282/posts
Bump that. Several times I’ve suggested that there should be a rotating primary schedule so that each state gets a chance to affect the cycle early in the process at some point.
This post should have been directed to you as well.
They always bet on the dems and it is always very close but leaning Republican in the end.
Yep and with the choice being either a woman or a guy named Hussein in the opposition, I think the Republicans have a better than average chance this time.
Having Huckabee on the ticket would greatly improve the chances of turning these now blue states, red:
Iowa (7), Missouri (11), Ohio (20), Penn (21)
Rep = 293
Dems = 245
Romney would make solidly red Southern states potentially blue and pink ones blue.
What battleground states do you think Huckabee would be weak in?
But we are not giving up here in Ohio!!!! We are going to campaign - you all just have to give us a strong candidate who can beat the Dem - Hey Florida - Get out there and vote for Romney.
That may happen, although, of the remaining GOP contenders, Romney will have the most money left over for the General Election .
On the other hand, I believe McCain would put states into play that the Dems would not normally worry about.
I wish we had a more conservative GOP nominee still in the race, but alas, Duncan Hunter and Fred Thompson have dropped out.
IMHO, at this point, the main question is which RINO has a better chance of defeating the Hildabeast or Osamabama.
Oh, I’ll work for Mitt here. He can’t do any worse than Ken Blackwell, who was as good a candidate as I ever saw.
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