Posted on 10/22/2008 4:46:44 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Facing seemingly limited options for getting to an Electoral College majority, John McCain’s path to victory likely runs through Pennsylvania, a state that no Republican presidential candidate has won in two decades, a state in which he trails in the polls by a wide margin and a state where in the past year more than a half-million new Democrats have been added to the voter registration rolls.
It’s an unenviable position to be in, except for one thing: Nearly everyone in a position to know thinks the race for Pennsylvania’s 21 electoral votes is considerably tighter than what recent polls reveal.
“There’s a tendency in Pennsylvania for the polls to change dramatically in the final days,” says John Brabender, a top Republican political consultant based in Pittsburgh. “In the governor’s race in 2002, there were polls just a few days out showing [Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell] with a 25-point lead and he ended up losing 50 of 67 counties and won by nine points.”
“I don’t believe there’s a double-digit lead,” said Jon Delano, a western Pennsylvania-based political analyst who also serves as an adjunct professor of Public Policy and Politics at Carnegie Mellon University. “The history of the presidential elections here is different.”
Even top Democrats concede that McCain’s deficit in the polls — 11 percentage points, according to the latest Real Clear Politics polling average — isn’t a solid indicator of his chances of carrying the state. On Tuesday, CNN reported that an anxious Rendell had sent two recent memos to the Obama campaign requesting that the Democratic nominee spend more time campaigning in Pennsylvania.
“The polls don’t necessarily reflect what will happen on Election Day,” said T.J. Rooney, the state Democratic Party chairman. “We’re not a state that’s accustomed to huge blowouts.”
Indeed, John F. Kerry carried Pennsylvania in 2004 by just 144,000 votes out of nearly 6 million votes cast. His win was powered, to a large degree, by an enormous 412,000-vote margin out of Philadelphia.
The McCain campaign's formula for winning the state begins with the notion that, despite voter registration gains and strong support for Obama in Philadelphia, it would be difficult to wring more votes out of the state’s largest city than the Kerry campaign did.
They even believe they can carry a few of the heavily Democratic city’s 66 wards, a feat George W. Bush was unable to accomplish in 2004.
“We’re not convinced they can blow it out again,” said a McCain campaign source.
And in the four populous and historically Republican collar counties surrounding Philadelphia, the campaign believes McCain is a far better fit for the socially moderate suburbs than President Bush.
“McCain is more like a [Tom] Ridge than a Bush,” said the McCain campaign insider, referring to the popular former two-term GOP governor. “That gives suburban voters a comfort level with him. He’s a different kind of Republican in so many ways.”
Yet Republican hopes aren’t predicated on a southeastern Pennsylvania-based strategy since McCain is unlikely to run dramatically better than Bush in that vote-rich region.
Rather, the GOP path to victory runs through the socially conservative parts of the state outside the Philadelphia metropolitan region, and bears a strong resemblance to Hillary Clinton’s winning Democratic primary map.
“How do you flip 140,000 votes? You start by cutting in places like Lackawanna and Luzerne counties,” said the McCain campaign source, referring to Scranton and Wilkes-Barre, the traditionally conservative Democratic population hubs of northeastern Pennsylvania.
McCain also must run well in Lancaster and York counties in central Pennsylvania, two Republican strongholds that have received attention from both the Arizona senator and his running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. McCain also needs to boost his margins in the state’s Republican “T”, a region which begins at the Maryland state line and runs north through the center of the state before expanding to include the northern tier of counties that border New York.
“Winning Philadelphia is not enough for a done deal,” said Delano. “Whether it’s Scranton, Erie, Altoona, Johnstown or the Pittsburgh area, this is a big state. What McCain is counting on is that a lot of Democrats who voted once against Barack Obama in the primary will vote against him again.”
Western Pennsylvania, many pols believe, seems to hold the most promise for the McCain campaign. McCain expects to run better than Bush in Pittsburgh’s Allegheny County—which Kerry carried by 97,000 votes in 2004—and in southwestern Pennsylvania, where Obama lost to Clinton by landslide margins.
“Democrats who do well in areas like Johnstown, Wilkes-Barre and Pittsburgh are pro-life, pro-gun Democrats like Bob Casey. The Democrats who seem to do poorly in those areas tend to be pro-choice and questionable on guns,” said Brabender. “I think people are going to be shocked by how well McCain is going to do on the western side and in the center part of the state.”
While Democrats acknowledge western Pennsylvania is highly competitive, they remain confident that Obama will carry the state in the end.
“Pennsylvania will be won or lost for Barack Obama in the Philly suburbs,” said state Rep. Josh Shapiro of suburban Philadelphia’s Montgomery County, the third-largest county in the state after Philadelphia and Allegheny counties. “I anticipate the race will be close and in single digits but I also anticipate that Barack Obama will prevail.”
Rooney, the state Democratic chairman, framed it another way.
“It’s going to get closer,” he said. “But at the end of the day, I would much rather be on the side of the lead I think we have than on the other side of it.”
Working phone banks in the Philly suburbs in 2004 made me think that Republicans there would welcome Satan as a change from Bush...and I’m sure that the 2005-2008 record has just made that worse. I think the suburbs are going to go Obama.
I also wish I could have done more. Problem is, it’s difficult to get people fired up to support John McCain. It’s more a fight against Obama. Fred Thompson, Rudy Guiliani, Ron Paul, or another, would have been a different story.
If she is truly ill, why the delay in seeing her, while doing a dance on Ellen Degenerates show?
It would be sweet!
Two union people in my house voting Mccain/Palin.
your wrong about pa, he can take it and he will! I live in pa i see what is going on,
Ah yes, KYW and the Inquirer tell me every day that Obama has this insurmountable lead. Now that’s what I call a “Rhetorical Flourish”.
Hero or Zero, it’s that simple.
Thanks for the ping.
That's just not the case. Your concern about PA is understandable. I still have some doubts, but with each day I'm more convinced that not only is Obama hurting in PA, but his numbers are a drag on the 5 or so competitive House races (which is another very good reason to be spending so much time and energy in PA).
Yea, I don’t know who this zebrahead guy is, but its clearly evident he isn’t living in PA. McCain has PA in the bag, and has from day one. He’s buying into national polling and pundent info that has been off about this state drastically since day one.
Fauxbama has no chance of carrying PA.
Fauxbama has gone from 26% of his adds being negative to something like 78% of his ads being negative... you don’t do that when you are winning folks. Fauxbama is done, and he’ll lose PA.
OH voter fraud is the only real issue left in this campaign that could threaten McCain/Palin winning.
Oh it will, McCain’s winning this thing and HOPEFULLY we’ll finally have a voice for this region in DC in appreciation that might actually finally help this region out. That’s not why I’m voting or anyone else is voting for McCain, but hopefully when he wins he’ll remember SWPA. We’ve been the bastard child of state government for 30 years, and all but ignored nationally.
I was just thinking yesterday that he had to really go all-out negative soon. I don't doubt what you're saying at all, but where did you find the stats?
As you said, people don't go full negative when they're ahead.
And the beauty of that is that it just might also remove the treasonous Jack Murtha from his seat. Yes, Russell's still an underdog. But his name recognition is shooting up and interest in him is peaking specifically because of Murtha's arrogance. A GOP poll showed Murtha with a decent 14-point lead over Russell, before the "racist" and "redneck" remarks. The key point, though, was the Mr. 17-term Incumbent couldn't break 50% before he further insulted his constituents.
And Melissa Hart is in much better shape now to win her seat back. (No, haven't seen any recent polls)
This was reported by a callin on the Quinn and Rose show this morning, guy who calls in regularly out of Columbus. I forget his name, but he’s involved somehow in the campaign for sure based on the info he hands out.
Is there a thread on this crazy new poll
As the race for the White House enters its final days, the Big Ten Battleground Poll shows Barack Obama holds significant leads over John McCain in eight crucial Midwest states.
The individual surveys of between 562 and 586 randomly selected registered voters and those likely to register to vote before the election in each of the states were conducted by phone with live interviewers from Oct. 19-22 and were co-directed by University of Wisconsin-Madison political scientists Charles Franklin and Ken Goldstein with the cooperation of colleagues from participating Big Ten universities. The polls each have a margin of error of 4.2 percentage points. The states included in the poll were Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois and Minnesota, home to the 11 universities in the Big Ten conference.
Those states were key battlegrounds in the 2004 election, and last month the Big Ten Battleground Poll showed a tight race in all of those states but Illinois, which Obama represents in the U.S. Senate. The first poll was taken just as the U.S. financial crisis first intensified and before the massive decline in the stock market, when McCain was enjoying his highest poll numbers of the campaign in the Big Ten and nationally.
“In September, we saw virtually the entire Big Ten as a battleground,” said Franklin, co-developer of Pollster.com. “Now Obama is clearly winning the Big Ten battleground. The dominance of the economy as a top issue for voters is the overwhelming story.”
The new Big Ten poll shows Obama ahead in every Big Ten state, including Indiana, where McCain held a slight edge in September, and Ohio and Pennsylvania, where last month’s poll results showed the two candidates in a dead heat.
Head-to-head results for individual states
Illinois Obama 61% McCain 32%
Indiana Obama 51% McCain 41%
Iowa Obama 52% McCain 39%
Michigan Obama 58% McCain 36%
Minnesota Obama 57% McCain 38%
Ohio Obama 53% McCain 41%
Pennsylvania Obama 52% McCain 41%
Wisconsin Obama 53% McCain 40%
The poll also included a nationally representative sample of 1,014 respondents, with a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points. That survey shows Obama with a 9-point margin over McCain, 52 percent to 43 percent.
“With the fundamental factors so to their advantage, this election was always about Barack Obama and the Democrats reaching a threshold level of credibility with voters,” said Goldstein, a UW-Madison political science professor. “It appears Obama has and this race has popped nationally and here in the Big Ten.”
I haven’t seen a poll with Hart since before she started her push, but she was only down 5 then and that was with Altmire all over the place and her nowhere. Now that she’s out there, I have to believe she’s at least even if not ahead.
I figured Altmire would be a 1 termer when he got elected, hopefully that will be vindicated. He’s a puppet for Pelosi, nothing more.
Frankly, nearly everyone in the position to know (except the MSM) thinks the race in general is considerably tighter than what recent polls reveal.
Indiana Obama 51% McCain 41%
Minnesota Obama 57% McCain 38%
Ohio Obama 53% McCain 41%
Pennsylvania Obama 52% McCain 41%
Wisconsin Obama 53% McCain 40%
Well, I won’t speak to IL, IA and MI, as I think the numbers that are offered there are grossly off the finals, but Fauxbama will almost certainly take them at the end of the day. IA clearly isn’t going to come to its senses and will continue to put free money from the gubment ahead of sound leadership, and MI may turn up a suprise, but as I’m not on the ground there, can’t say. It could be the other rust belt state that will flip other than PA, but, won’t argue it other than it won’t go Fauxbama by anywhere near the 22 points this poll claims.
As to the rest, IN is going McCain solidly, claiming otherwise is laughable. MN may or may not flip, but it certainly won’t go to Fauxbama by 19. OH? Please, its solidly R, the only chance it has of flipping is voter fraud, (and I don’t think it will) and then it would only be the smallest of margins. WI by 13? No way in hell, honestly I think WI is probably the most likely of the other rust belt states to flip with PA this year.. it may not, but it certainly won’t go Fauxbama by more than a slim margin.
I don’t know who published this poll but they CLEARLY are out there smoking some pretty good stuff if they expect anyone to take this seriously. This is either a complete propoganda piece (likely) or the methodology is so bad, that I’d suspect it was a bunch of grad students trying some new math out with this poll, its not remotely credible at all.
Barone is an inside the Beltway Idiot Also he supported & Voted for McGovern in 72 Check out his Wikipedia profile
Um, two weeks before the election was two days ago. No 0bama rally. I think that's what Fast Eddie's trying to say. 0bama's blowing it in PA.
I'm in the solid red part of PA, and I'm seeing the McCain/Palin signs thicker than I've ever seen for anything, plus they are deployed with a palpable sense of defiance (huge signs, multiple signs in one yard, etc.) that seems to indicate above-normal levels of passion.
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