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2012 electoral map as it stands
Reuters ^ | April 21, 2011 | by James Pethokoukis

Posted on 04/21/2011 12:48:04 PM PDT by library user

~ EXCERPT ~

This is how 2012 looks right now to elections guru Larry Sabato:

electoralmap

Here is how the math works: Include the “Leans” states with the “Likely” and “Safe,” the numbers are as follows: 247 Democratic EVs,  180 Republican EVs, 111 Undecided. Just counting “Likely” and “Safe,” the numbers are as follows: 196 Democratic EVs, 170 Republican EVs, 172 Undecided.

Of the tossup states, I would give the Rs IN (11), FL (29) and certainly at least one of VA, NC or OH. Some Leans D in the Upper Midwest are vulnerable, too.

(Excerpt) Read more at blogs.reuters.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012; 2012electoralmap; elections2012; larrysabato; sabato
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1 posted on 04/21/2011 12:48:05 PM PDT by library user
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To: library user

Didn’t he have the Dems losing 4-5 seats last election until 2 weeks prior?

Pray for America


2 posted on 04/21/2011 12:51:18 PM PDT by bray (Hey Oboehner stop crying and start fighting?)
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To: library user
Well, Texas is a RED STATE. But then again, so many people have moved here from jobless states to find work here, they could all be new Democrats. I HOPE NOT! Most of the jobs created in USA in the past year or two were in Texas. I wish we could just go ahead and secede!
3 posted on 04/21/2011 12:51:23 PM PDT by buffyt (Abortion is the ultimate CHILD ABUSE!)
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Why in the world is Texas only a “likely”? Obama wouldn’t beat a ham sandwich in Texas.


4 posted on 04/21/2011 12:52:18 PM PDT by Crimson Elephant
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To: library user

I’m pleased to see Colorado in the toss-up category. Used to be we were reliably Republican, but there’s been a huge influx of illegals and liberals in the last 20 years, and now our governor, both senators, and all but two congressmen are Democrats.


5 posted on 04/21/2011 12:53:10 PM PDT by American Quilter (DEFUND OBAMACARE.)
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To: library user

This map would work if 2009-2010 never happened.

Sabato is dreaming.


6 posted on 04/21/2011 12:54:14 PM PDT by nhwingut (Palin '12... Accept No Other)
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To: library user

Wonder how that map changes if Trump somehow manages to make it? And how much money that’ll cost the Democrats just to bring that new map back to this one...


7 posted on 04/21/2011 12:54:33 PM PDT by kingu (Legislators should read what they write!)
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To: library user

Michigan lost a seat.


8 posted on 04/21/2011 12:55:10 PM PDT by FrdmLvr (Death to tyrants)
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To: nhwingut

What are you saying? I’m just curious. That Dem loses will be much worse than the map shows?


9 posted on 04/21/2011 12:55:53 PM PDT by library user (Just because you're homeless doesn't mean you're lazy.)
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To: Crimson Elephant
"Why in the world is Texas only a “likely”? Obama wouldn’t beat a ham sandwich in Texas."

Because we are slowly getting the blue spotted virus with each election cycle. Harris County (includes Houston) turned blue in the 2008 election.

10 posted on 04/21/2011 12:56:01 PM PDT by avacado
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To: bray

This seems a little devoid of reality. Wisconsin (according to the last election) is no linger dem. Ohio (my home) is not a toss-up as we just elected a Republican Governor and state legistlature. Pennsylvania is a toss-up at best.


11 posted on 04/21/2011 12:56:28 PM PDT by marstegreg
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To: library user

Sabato is an always wrong puke.


12 posted on 04/21/2011 12:56:28 PM PDT by boomop1
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To: Crimson Elephant
How many illegals live in Texas????
13 posted on 04/21/2011 12:56:58 PM PDT by org.whodat
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To: library user

Sabato often skews left, and he certainly overestimates the jackasses with this map.


14 posted on 04/21/2011 12:57:18 PM PDT by rfp1234 (Le Parti du The'. Ne marchez pas sur moi!)
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To: avacado
Yes all of those welfare transplants from new Orleans.
15 posted on 04/21/2011 12:58:46 PM PDT by org.whodat
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To: library user

Indiana and Ohio are SOLID R’s for 2012. Likely Wisconsin, Michigan and PA, too.

NO WAY Obama can win without those.


16 posted on 04/21/2011 12:58:59 PM PDT by tcrlaf (2012 Slogan: "You'd Have To Be Insane, To Vote For Hussein!")
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To: avacado
Yes all of those welfare transplants from new Orleans.
17 posted on 04/21/2011 12:58:59 PM PDT by org.whodat
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To: avacado
Yes all of those welfare transplants from new Orleans.
18 posted on 04/21/2011 12:58:59 PM PDT by org.whodat
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To: Crimson Elephant

Don’t forget about the Mescans


19 posted on 04/21/2011 12:59:26 PM PDT by tayper (Granny told me, Saying it don't make it so)
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To: boomop1
Sabato is an always wrong puke.

Actually, his predictions for last year's elections were almost totally on the money. The GOP did a little worse in the Senate than he had predicted, IIRC.

20 posted on 04/21/2011 12:59:51 PM PDT by library user (Just because you're homeless doesn't mean you're lazy.)
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To: library user

If Indiana goes Obama in 2012, I will eat my shoe. This map is worst case for GOP and best case for Dems as of now. FL is a deep Red again in 2012 if we have even a decent candidate.


21 posted on 04/21/2011 1:00:29 PM PDT by ilgipper
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To: library user

Dems up 75 points? Whoever did this is definitely playing fast and lose with the numbers, no way in hell this is remotely accurate.


22 posted on 04/21/2011 1:01:58 PM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: library user

Hey sabato, youre a moron if you think Georgia is just likely R.We just wore the arse off a rat liar/lawyer for governor in this state.Your liberalism is showing larry.


23 posted on 04/21/2011 1:01:58 PM PDT by HANG THE EXPENSE (Life is tough.It's tougher when you're stupid.)
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To: rfp1234

the electoral shift has been favorable

180+IN+VA+NC+OH+NH+IN+FL = 270. That is friendlier than in the past

This does not include IA+NV+CO+NM in calculation


24 posted on 04/21/2011 1:02:44 PM PDT by slapshot ("Were not gonna take it anymore" Twisted Sister)
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To: kingu
"Wonder how that map changes if Trump somehow manages to make it?"

I'm not endorsing Trump by any stretch, but IMHO, it's conceivable that he could take both NY and FL.

25 posted on 04/21/2011 1:03:17 PM PDT by Joe 6-pack (Que me amat, amet et canem meum)
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To: library user

Yeah, he’s been right on except Christie, Brown and Nov until right before the election when he had to retain his credibility. If he was honest he would show how bad Obozo’s real chances are but then how could his Party do any fundraising if he did that?

Pray for America


26 posted on 04/21/2011 1:03:34 PM PDT by bray (Hey Oboehner stop crying and start fighting?)
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To: tcrlaf

Also, 0bama not visiting tornado-stricken Virginia and North Carolina recently (instead deciding to fund-raise out west), which killed four times as many people who were killed in the BP drilling accident last year, I can imagine there won’t be much love for him when he campaigns in either of those states.

As a result, I would put both NC and VA in the Lean-R, not tossup.


27 posted on 04/21/2011 1:03:54 PM PDT by library user (Just because you're homeless doesn't mean you're lazy.)
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To: library user

Is this map considering electoral changes by state based on the last census?


28 posted on 04/21/2011 1:07:51 PM PDT by AU72
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To: ilgipper

Everybody in Gary will have to vote twice for Indiana to go donkey (so that means it’s not *totally* out of the question).


29 posted on 04/21/2011 1:08:33 PM PDT by Stosh
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To: library user

I’m saying this map is a joke. Sabato does not, apparently, take into consideration what just happened in 2010.

At the very least Ohio, New Hampshire, Florida, Virgina, and Indiana should lean GOP given the shellacking they took only 6 months ago. What changed since? Nothing but higher gas prices. Obama is polling in the high 30s and/or low 40s in all 5 states.

The Dems were also wiped out in Wisconsin, PA, and Michigan which he has Leaning Dem. These should be Tossup.


30 posted on 04/21/2011 1:11:51 PM PDT by nhwingut (Palin '12... Accept No Other)
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To: tcrlaf; marstegreg; library user
How can he possibly have Pennsylvania “leaning Dem”?

During the 2010 elections we took control of the Governor's mansion, both the State House and the State Senate. Sent Pat Toomey to Washington to counter the lib Casey, as well as took control of most of the House districts.

Pennsylvania leaning Dem? Not likely!

31 posted on 04/21/2011 1:12:48 PM PDT by cuz_it_aint_their_money (I'll show their president the exact same respect and loyalty that they have shown my president.)
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To: library user

Is this the consideration before or after the Franken effect?


32 posted on 04/21/2011 1:13:24 PM PDT by EGPWS (Trust in God, question everyone else)
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To: library user

Here are some things in our favor:
1. States are passing voter id/integrity laws
2. TP movement will help GOTV and voter monitoring efforts
3. Several states are cutting public sector union CB “rights” which will reduce union dues and thugs available for Dim candidates including 0bama.
4. Hopefully some swing states will pass eligibility (birther) laws
5. MSM has lost it and the conservatives are using Facebook and the internet for news and opinion.
6. Net pickup of Republican governors in competitive states (OH, WI, MI).

I do hope that we can keep the pressure on 0bama’s past because this could cause the narcissistic to crack up if we find something really embarrassing in his record.


33 posted on 04/21/2011 1:16:27 PM PDT by grumpygresh (Democrats delenda est)
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To: cuz_it_aint_their_money

Pennsylvania leaning Dem? Not likely!

I’m in Ohio and there is no chance of an Obama victory unless he runs unopposed. I’m glad my Pennsylvania neighbors feel the same!


34 posted on 04/21/2011 1:16:59 PM PDT by marstegreg
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To: nhwingut

I agree, I just can’t see Michigan not going R next time around, unless they REALLY screw something up in Lansing in the next 1.5 yrs.


35 posted on 04/21/2011 1:19:16 PM PDT by kevslisababy
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To: marstegreg

Ohio is very much a toss up. If SB5 is repealed by referendum this November, the GOP will have to really do some hard charging for 2012.


36 posted on 04/21/2011 1:21:09 PM PDT by buccaneer81 (ECOMCON)
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To: marstegreg

Wisconsin and Ohio outcomes will be influenced by the anti-union bills. Not everyone is happy about that. I’m a Buckeye too btw.


37 posted on 04/21/2011 1:21:19 PM PDT by RC one (Donald Trump-I'm listening.)
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To: Crimson Elephant

Austin, Dallas and Houston are either very Democrat, or likely Democrat.

San Antonio, if the Dems get any sort of traction on immigration amnesty.


38 posted on 04/21/2011 1:21:31 PM PDT by Ro_Thunder (I sure hope there is a New Morning in America soon. All this hope and change is leaving me depressed)
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To: RC one

Spot on. I support Kasich and SB5 100%. But Kasich needs to curb his mouth and think before he opens it some times. His approval rating is in the toilet, and I think most of it is from running his mouth at the wrong moment.


39 posted on 04/21/2011 1:26:07 PM PDT by buccaneer81 (ECOMCON)
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To: RC one

Wisconsin and Ohio outcomes will be influenced by the anti-union bills. Not everyone is happy about that. I’m a Buckeye too btw.

The outcome of the wisconsin election just a few weeks ago with likely 100% union turnout was still a loss. Don’t you find that telling?


40 posted on 04/21/2011 1:29:07 PM PDT by marstegreg
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To: AU72
"Is this map considering electoral changes by state based on the last census?"

I can only speak for Louisiana with certainty, but in our case it does.

41 posted on 04/21/2011 1:29:56 PM PDT by Joe 6-pack (Que me amat, amet et canem meum)
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To: marstegreg
Sababto is an idiot, who bothers listening to him anyway, he's an eggheaded Obama fellating shill anyways. So what he nailed the Senate in 2010, so did most of us. His map is a best case scenario and with 5 bucka gallon gas, a moribund economy and Obama bent on a suicide mission with his 1980’s class warfare style campaign rhetoric it does look more and more like 1980 than 1996 or 2008, no matter who we nominate.
42 posted on 04/21/2011 1:35:15 PM PDT by pburgh01
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To: library user

It gets tougher each year for the GOP, as the dems have a guaranteed lock on 220 EVs before returns even come in. The West coast, NY and the New England states are forever lost. In 2012, the Repubs should retake VA, NC, FL and IN. Right now, Gov. Kasich is barely more popular than Satan, so getting OH back is going to be a difficult task. That makes it 248 EVs... gonna have to take a couple away from the enemy. Maybe PA, MI and NH.


43 posted on 04/21/2011 1:37:15 PM PDT by ScottinVA (Imagine.... a world without islam.)
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To: tcrlaf
Indiana and Ohio are SOLID R’s for 2012

IF Kasich's number improve. They're deep in the crapper now.

44 posted on 04/21/2011 1:42:10 PM PDT by ScottinVA (Imagine.... a world without islam.)
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To: kevslisababy
I agree, I just can’t see Michigan not going R next time around, unless they REALLY screw something up in Lansing in the next 1.5 yrs.

One hopeful sign for MI is Detroit is emptying fast. But the question is... did the "residents" remain in the state?

45 posted on 04/21/2011 1:45:18 PM PDT by ScottinVA (Imagine.... a world without islam.)
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46 posted on 04/21/2011 2:00:27 PM PDT by TheOldLady
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To: pburgh01
Sabato is a jerk. He doesn't know anything. He's BORs go to guru, that should tell you something. Whatever Larry says, think the opposite and you will do well.
47 posted on 04/21/2011 2:03:23 PM PDT by faucetman (Just the facts ma'am, just the facts)
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To: Crimson Elephant

“Why in the world is Texas only a “likely”? Obama wouldn’t beat a ham sandwich in Texas.”

Doncha know? The Won declared the state winnable, so it must be. And not only that they are going to replace Biden with Ricardo Sanchez for Veep, because Sanchez is an e-General, Hispanic, and from Texas.


48 posted on 04/21/2011 2:06:46 PM PDT by No Truce With Kings (Ten years on FreeRepublic and counting.)
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To: ScottinVA

Don’t know, but we have a pretty strong S.O.S., with lots of support and poll watchers (I’m one of them)


49 posted on 04/21/2011 2:09:29 PM PDT by kevslisababy
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To: tcrlaf

WI, PA, and MI are not Republican states. PA especially is always a teaser, like NJ. Do not count on any of those three states.


50 posted on 04/21/2011 2:12:22 PM PDT by LS ("Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually." (Hendrix))
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