Florida poll puts Romney up two points over …

Hot Air ^ | 29 Sep 2011 | Ed Morrissey

[mandaladon]

Maybe that P5 straw poll in Florida had more significance than some thought. A new poll by Survey USA of likely Florida primary voters shows Mitt Romney ahead in the GOP nomination race at 27%, but the second-place finisher comes within the margin of error — and it’s not Rick Perry:

In the Florida Republican Primary for President, Mitt Romney at 27% edges Herman Cain at 25%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WFLA-TV Tampa. Rick Perry finishes 3rd with 13%, others further back. The Primary is tentatively, and controversially, scheduled for 4 months from today, on 01/31/12,

Romney is strong among older voters, women, moderates and in Southeast Florida. Cain is strong among men, younger voters, Tea Party members, affluent voters and in Northeast Florida. Perry is strong among those who say they are “very conservative,” among those who attend religious services regularly, among Evangelicals and in Northwest Florida.

Newt Gingrich at 6%, and Michelle Bachmann and Ron Paul at 5%, effectively tie for 4th place. Jon Huntsman, in 7th place, finishes ahead of Rick Santorum.

Survey USA has a lot more credibility than Zogby’s online interactive polls do, and Florida is a significant state. This survey took place Saturday through Tuesday, and SUSA culled 500 likely voters from almost 1400 responses on both landlines and cellphones. I’d be interested to see how the general-survey numbers turned out, and how each day’s tally worked out. Even apart from that, though, Herman Cain obviously made a big impression on Florida voters in the debate as well as at the straw poll.

[iowamark]

Headline should read “Romney, Cain Tied in Florida: Cain Leads Among Conservatives.”

[GatorGirl]

We are doing better...his name is Herman Cain.

[comebacknewt]

I hope he is prepared for the unbeleivable crap they (media and the lefty groups) will throw at him.

I hope he is prepared for the unbelievable crap that some on the right will throw at him.

You better believe it is coming. Definitely not from me, but I have already seen others doing it right here on FR.

[McGavin999]

Some of the people here can be pretty vicious. But lately they’ve been attacking big republican donors and that is a very serious mistake.

[Lady Lucky]

Why do you think Palin would do better than Cain?

No reason you haven't seen a hundred times already. He's a rookie. The presidency is not an entry level position. And no, business is NOT the same as politics. Also, that 9-9-9 thing is a gimmick, if he really thought it a beautiful idea he'd run for House or Senate and advance it there.

Palin's not perfect -- I harbor an awful suspicion that she'll endorse Romney sooner or later (and probably sooner) -- but she's been royally nuked by the media and is still standing. Twenty thousand emails and they couldn't find a particle more to throw at her. She's been a governor, has experience dealing with the legislature, the media, the voters, and the big businesses, from an executive's office. And she could make energy issues central to the campaign, highlighting her experience in Alaska. She can hold her own in debate, tested and proven.

I don't want any surprises, and Cain is not tested and proven.

[chilepup]

I know! But remember, Herman can’t win! His straw poll win was just a protest vote. Trust us, we know. Blah, blah, blah. Go Herman!!!!!!

[Raebie]

If he is within 2% of Romney at this stage without the name recognition, Mittens is in very big trouble...

[Donnafrflorida]

Romney has one group. Cain and Perry folks split the other. Not good. Romney could win if Cain and perry split. Romney 40. Cain 30 Perry 30. UGH!!

[Donnafrflorida]

Romney has one group. Cain and Perry folks split the other. Not good. Romney could win if Cain and perry split. Romney 40. Cain 30 Perry 30. UGH!!

[ZULU]

I knpw there are too many conservatives in the brew and not enough Liberals. Maybe that is why Christie and Julie-Annie should run - BOTH of them.

[comebacknewt]

Some of the people here can be pretty vicious.

Then you have people like Bachmann and Santorum who seem all too eager to do Romney's dirty work in the debates.

I can see Bachmann slamming Cain's position on eliminating the EPA and calling him "an extremist who hates children" much the same way she blasted Perry on Social Security and Gardasil.

[McGavin999]

No, they're not going to slam Cain, it seem Cain endorsed Romney in the last election and he said yesterday that he would support Romney if he got the nomination but wouldn't support Perry. So, no, they'll leave him alone.

Notice that the only one being attacked is Perry.

[ZULU]

ALL of them need to STOP attacking EACH other in the debates, REMEMBER Reagan’s 11th commandment and GO AFTER OBAMA!!!!

[Homer_J_Simpson]

Thanks for the reply. You make good points. But the idea of Palin endorsing Romney is scary. Has she given some indication that this is possible? I understand she voiced approval of Perry at one point but Romney? I don’t get that.

[Prokopton]

Oh, Romney can win the nomination. And unless Palin jumps in, he will; you can bank on it.

Romney would actually have a better chance of winning the nomination if Palin does "jump in".

[Plutarch]

Romney won the lower- and middle-income voters, but Cain edged him among those making more than $80K, 28/27.

This is interesting, as Romney has usually polled better with higher income Republicans. What does this say about Romney, or Cain or Florida?

[Prokopton]

“I can see Bachmann slamming Cain’s position on eliminating the EPA”

Nice try:

http://www.grist.org/politics/2011-08-08-michele-bachmann-pledges-epas-doors-locked-and-lights-turned-off

[Lady Lucky]

But the idea of Palin endorsing Romney is scary. Has she given some indication that this is possible?

Well, she once endorsed John McCain.

[Lady Lucky]

She won't beat Romney if she doesn't run, that's for sure.

I don't see anyone else beating him. Well maybe Obama.

[comebacknewt]

OK, Santorum then.