No sir, I don't believe it!
Posted on 01/08/2012 8:31:13 PM PST by lilyfreeper
Santorum's so-called surge is all but gone. Huntsman is catching up.
This is the PPP (Promptly Pushing Progressivism) poll...it gets absolutely no street cred from me,I can tell you that. It’s as credible as a Time Magazine/MSLSD poll. Pfft!!!
It would be unsurprising for Mitt to take the plurality in NH, but I would not expect to see him gain a majority. It would be very funny to have the “nobody” Huntsman nipping at Mitt’s heels like Santorum did in Iowa. Romney is not just liberal, he’s weird liberal.
Paul is declining, and will no a non-factor in South Carolina, which will have less cross-overs, even though it’s technically an open primary. New Hampshire is Huntsman’s best state, because he’s camped out there for about a year, and because of the high number of Obama-supporting cross-overs. But in conservative South Carolina, Huntsman will - like Paul - be a non-factor.
So South Carolina will be a 4-way race between Romney, Perry, Santorum and Gingrich. If Perry would get out the way, I think Gingrich or Santorum could win with 35 - 40%. But with the conservative vote divided 3 ways, Romney unfortunately is the favorite.
lilyfreeper
since Jan 1,2012
Welcome to FR.
What I don’t understand is why states like Iowa or NH get to go first, thus giving these freak-of-nature states the first say in who is the Republican candidate. They aren’t even reliably conservative. Wouldn’t it make more sense to let Red States go first, so that we don’t have a situation where a liberal who is hated by the vast majority of Republicans gets the nomination through pure money and staying power?
It’s a system that promotes mediocrity and decline. The only real Republican winners have been the ones who are the most conservative. Weaklings like McCain or Romney can’t beat a hard left Obama because they’re as vapid as Obama is. When truth is preached boldly, people are drawn to it.
Romney has a high floor and a low ceiling. Somebody conservative just needs to climb above his ceiling.
Zotty New Year!
No sir, I don't believe it!
Public Policy Polling (PPP) is an American Democratic Party-affiliated polling firm based in Raleigh, North Carolina.[1][2][3] PPP was founded in 2001 by businessman and Democratic pollster Dean Debnam, the firm's current president and chief executive officer.
Partnership with Dailykos
Many PPP election polls were commissioned by the liberal website Dailykos, although the company states that most of its revenue comes from other sources.
lilyfreeper has exactly one post, the one to which you replied.
PPP may be a left polling firm but it’s also highly accurate.
Romneybot alert. Why would a newbie pick a handle with “freeper” in it?
Freaks of nature!
I like it.
On to the adult states....lol
Unfortunately this poll is fairly consistent with other recent New Hampshire polls, except for showing a moderate surge for Huntsman and a slight surge for Santorum.
The last bastion of conservatism in the Northeast is rapidly sinking. New Hampshire, we hardly knew you.
Correction: slight surge for Gingrich, not Santorum
Huntsman??!!???
Funny stuff!!!
"Could Typo Rewrite Caucus History? (Santorum may regain win)"
<< PPP may be a left polling firm but it’s also highly accurate. >>
Well, if it’s “highly accurate,” then jump your lilybutt onto the bandwagon, but stop insulting everyone here by expecting them to jump onto a bandwagon being steered by liberals. Sheesh.
http://psychology.wikia.com/wiki/Bandwagon_effect
BANDWAGON EFFECT
The Bandwagon effect, also known as social proof or “cromo effect” and closely related to opportunism, is the observation that people often do and believe things because many other people do and believe the same things. The effect is often pejoratively called “herding instinct,” particularly when applied to adolescents. People tend to follow the crowd without examining the merits of a particular thing. The bandwagon effect is the reason for the bandwagon fallacy’s success.
(SNIP)
Use in Politics
The bandwagon effect occurs in voting: some people vote for those candidates or parties who are likely to succeed (or are proclaimed as such by the media), hoping to be on the ‘winner’s side’ in the end. The Bandwagon effect has been applied to situations involving majority opinion, such as political outcomes, where people alter their opinions to the majority view (McAllister and Studlar 721). Such a shift in opinion can occur because individuals draw inferences from the decisions of others, as in an informational cascade.
Current RealClearPolitics averages for New Hampshire (not including this PPP poll):
Romney 40.2
Paul 20.8
Santorum 10.6
Huntsman 9.4
Gingrich 8.6
Perry 1.0
New Hampshire really seems to be a strange bird, even more this year than usual.
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