Zogby:Gephardt Widens Iowa Lead, Kerry 2nd, Lieberman 3rd; 61% of Dems Say Bush Re-election Likely

Zogby International ^ | April 29, 2003

[Timesink]

Released: April 29, 2003

Gephardt Widens Iowa Caucus Lead, Kerry Second, Lieberman Slips to Third; 61% of Dems Say Bush Re-election Likely, According to New Zogby International Poll

Missouri Congressman Richard Gephardt has widened his lead in a poll of likely voters in the January 2004 Iowa Democratic presidential caucus. The poll of 387 likely caucus voters was conducted by Zogby International on April 25 - 27, 2003. The margin of error is +/- 5.1%, and margins are higher in sub-groups.

Gephardt received the support of one-in four (25%), compared to 13% who said they would support Massachusetts Senator John Kerry. Connecticut Senator Joseph Lieberman slipped to third place at 9%, joining the balance of Democratic presidential aspirants earning only single digits.

In January polling by Zogby International in Iowa, Gephardt enjoyed a slim lead, 19% - 17% over Lieberman, with Kerry in third place at 11%.

Former Vermont Governor Howard Dean and Florida Senator Bob Graham made modest gains in the April polling. Dean earned 6% of the votes in April, compared to 2% in January, and Graham inched up from 0.3% to 0.8%. Three other candidates polled in January, including North Carolina Senator John Edwards, former Colorado Senator Gary Hart, and civil rights activist Rev. Al Sharpton, experienced erosion in their support.

Former Illinois Senator Carol Mosley Braun and Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich announced their candidacy following Zogby's January polling in Iowa, and polled 1% and 3% respectively in April.

Nearly one in three (31%) likely caucus voters are not sure which candidate they'll choose next January. In January 2003 polling, 37% said they were not sure.

One in four (24%) likely Democratic caucus voters say it is very likely that President George W. Bush will be re-elected, and 37% said it is somewhat likely, a total of 61%. In January, 20% felt his re-election was very likely and four in ten (40%) said somewhat likely, a total of 60%.

Favorable/Unfavorable ratings are crucial to a candidate's ultimate success. Difficulties are expected when a candidate's unfavorable rating exceeds the favorable number. Equally important is a candidate's unfamiliarity rating, with both votes and money more difficult to gather for a candidate with a high "not familiar" rating.

Candidate	January 2003	April 2003
	Fav/Unfav/Unfam %	Fav/Unfav/Unfam %
Gephardt	70-10-17	67-16-15
Lieberman	64-15-18	57-22-18
Kerry	51-6-41	51-13-34
Hart	36-37-23	31-43-24
Edwards	29-6-64	25-10-63
Graham	22-11-33	22-17-60
Dean	13-4-82	22-8-69
Sharpton	11-33-55	8-45-45
Mosley Braun	Not included	18-22-57
Kucinich	Not included	11-11-77

Even with a field of ten candidates, some Iowa caucus voters still want more. While nearly half (47%) said they are satisfied with the present field, just over four in ten (42%) said they wish other candidates were running. Eleven percent were not sure.

The Iowa Democratic Presidential caucus on January 19, 2004, is the first voter indication of a candidate's popularity in the nation. The Democratic Convention will be held in late July in Boston.

More polling information is available at www.zogby.com.

[Ann Archy]

Lieberman wins in South Carolina??? You CAN'T be serious!! It's Howard Dean or Rev. Al ALL the way!!

[Dog Gone]

I think Gephardt wins Iowa, Dean wins New Hampshire, and Sharpton wins South Carolina. At that point, the Democrats all slash their wrists and concede defeat to Dubya.

[Toidylop]

Nah... Rumor has that the screaming b*tch, uh... the shrilling witch is waiting in the wing to be drafted for the DEMs.

[Gabrielle Reilly]

>>>>>In the meantime, I seriously doubt President Bush will be taking his reelection chances for granted. One of several reasons why his father was defeated in 1992 was the fact that his campaign was run very badly. In contrast, his son is a go-for-the-jugular type who will not give the Dems any breathing room>>>>

That, and Bush senior did not pay enough attention to jobs at home, as apposed to some war in a far off country. The priorities of economy and homeland security have changed much since his term. Bush is accutely aware of promoting economic policy and I anticipate he will move into a big voice on that once this immediate danger of the war has subsided.

[Textide]

I agree. That nasally Mid-Western voice will defeat him long before his poilitical views will.

[Gabrielle Reilly]

>>>>>The only thing I can guess is that Gephardt has managed to come off as the least offensive and/or dangerous candidate thus far in the eyes of the average Iowa Democratic voter.>>>>>

Yes, I agree Gephardt is mildly less offensive than Lieberman, unless you have the misfortune of being in a room with the two of them together... Then the arrogance generated from them both is nothing less than antagonizing.

[newgeezer]

Note the venue. Tax-exempt status in jeopardy? Nah. Unlike you 'n' me, dese people can get away wi' dat. Way's da outrage?

[Faraday]

...Richard Gephardt will NEVER be elected president of the United States.

Isn't there a clause in the Constitution that no one without eye brows can be elected President?

[upchuck]

The Hildebeaste continues to be the big (pun intended!!!) question mark in this race.

Other than, "WOW! Who's that good with an airbrush?" - Any questions?

[BOBTHENAILER]

This current field of Demoncrats is the most boring, uncharismatic bunch in history.

You win the NAILER award for hitting the TRUTH right on the head.

[Diogenesis]

[lasereye]

Gephardt can win Iowa, right next to his home state, but he is too moderate to win over the wacko constituencies that it takes to get the nomination.

His health care plan is intended to win over the wackos. Plus he's built up alot of IOU's from the unions, and they count for alot in some states. And in the south, his support of the Iraq war won't hurt him. He's the front runner IMO. Ironically though, New Hampshire could kill him. He probably has to finish at least second and he might not.

[lasereye]

Gephardt can win Iowa, right next to his home state, but he is too moderate to win over the wacko constituencies that it takes to get the nomination.

His health care plan is intended to win over the wackos. Plus he's built up alot of IOU's from the unions, and they count for alot in some states. And in the south, his support of the Iraq war won't hurt him. He's the front runner IMO. Ironically though, New Hampshire could kill him. He probably has to finish at least second and he might not.

[Tall_Texan]

A + or - 5.1% margin of error????

Thowing darts at a dartboard might produce greater accuracy.

Maybe ol' Zogby didn't release this for a week because he wasn't sure he had the guts to pass this off to paying customers.

[america-rules]

"In the meantime, I seriously doubt President Bush will be taking his reelection chances for granted. One of several reasons why his father was defeated in 1992 was the fact that his campaign was run very badly. In contrast, his son is a go-for-the-jugular type who will not give the Dems any breathing room. "

President Bush has been building insurance against the bad economy (which it's not) ploy the dems will use.

He's saying in his speeches that the economy is now in the hands of the congress if they don't pass his 550 Billion dollar tax cut. If there arent't 1 million new jobs created soon it's because they didn't act - not him !

[biblewonk]

It must be a church.

[Tall_Texan]

But that won't stick because:

a) the public, rightly or wrongly, always holds the president accountable for the state of the economy, sort of like football fans who always blame the QB for their losses.

b) both houses of congress are controlled by the Republicans so, if Bush can't get what he wants from them, it illustrates a lack of leadership on his part.

You or I might understand the nuances of your argument but few others will.

[Conservative til I die]

Hey bub, you try tripling your poll totals some day!