[53%!] Trump breaks 50% in national support for the first time [Cruz 22, Kasich 11, Rubio 10]

yougov.com ^ | March 14, 2016 | Kathy Frankovic

[GeaugaRepublican]

In the last two weeks, Republican frontrunner Donald Trump has won more delegates in primaries and caucuses, even while his opponents have launched new attacks and questions have been raised about his supporters. The week’s Economist/YouGov Poll finds Trump still at the top of GOP voters’ preference with a wider lead, while Florida Senator Marco Rubio seems most damaged by the two weeks of attacks and counter-attacks.

[Ohioan]

Maybe; but I would not bet on it. Southern Ohio should go substantially for Trump.

Kasich does, of course, have the State organization support. But the Party organization, really does not have the clout it once had>

[connyankee]

I imagine proper thank you notes are being penned by the Trump campaign and will be sent post haste to the rube-ee-oo, cruzen’ and ksick folks. They couldn’t have done a better job (with the help of rnc and gope) to help propel DJT to the White House. How their hair must be on fire and their collective eyeballs spinning independently in their sockets about now.
Cannot wait until tomorrow!!

[John Valentine]

I think personally Cruz shot himself in the head with his blaming of Trump for the violence in Cincinatti...

First off, that's a gross misrepresentation of what happened, and while it might play well in the Trump echo chamber, in the world of normal people, it wasn't seen that way.

In fact, Cruz might have helped himself. The late breaking decisions in Ohio, Illinois and Missouri are going his way. Even in Florida, Cruz has moved into second place.

Nationally, the latest head to head poll I have seen puts Crus a 54% against Trump at 41%.

Now, I am not going out on a limb so far as to say Cruz will win this. He might, but he might fall short. My point is to caution Trump believers against premature celebration.

By the way, I don't see Kasich sticking around, win or lose. After tomorrow, Kasich has NO path to the delegates he needs. Neither does Rubio except by postulating the impossible. One other point: there have not yet been any primaries decided in a head to head contest. So, keep an eye on Arizona as a harbinger of things to come.

[onyx]

RUSH: Michael, Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. Great to have you on the program. Hi.

CALLER: Good afternoon, Mr. Limbaugh. Yesterday I was watching TV, I saw Mr. Cruz come on and basically blame Trump for these protests taking place at the rallies. To me, I mean, this is a so-called constitutional lawyer here, I mean, I don't know how you see it, but I see it as all of Mr. Trump's First Amendment rights being violated. The so-called constitutional lawyer should have saw that. For him to take the side of the, as you know, agitators, anarchists, whatever you want to call them, to me that exposes Mr. Cruz as one of the Republican establishment guys --

RUSH: No. No, no, no, no. Come on.

CALLER: Come on, Rush.

RUSH: No, come on.

CALLER: Come on.

RUSH: Do not take such a leap. Of all the crazy things --

CALLER: I got more evidence if you'd like it.

RUSH: Michael, do you really, after everything that's gone on, do you think Ted Cruz is a secret member, a secret handshake away from being a member of the establishment?

CALLER: He's already got the handshake. He's put the check in his pocket with Goldman Sachs.

RUSH: Oh, come on. That's Trump drivel that you ought to know is untrue and that's just campaign rhetoric. Goldman Sachs. You gotta wise up out there. You gotta know when Trump's making a joke and trying to rile you up and when he's serious. He's not serious about that. He's not serious about the loan business. He wants you to believe it I guess. Look, Cruz came out, he acknowledged where these protests coming from. He acknowledged they're started by leftists. He knows that this is a Democrat radical way of life.

But I think Cruz and Rubio, they're in a Republican primary. Their enemy right now, their opponent is Trump. They'll get down to getting after Hillary or Bernie later on. Right now they've gotta get past Trump. Rubio really laid into Trump on this on Saturday morning, to the point that Rubio looked really, really troubled by this. He was asked, "Are you still gonna vote for the nominee?" He was really pained with this, because he is of the belief that Trump is coarsening our politics, coarsening the conversation and is not representing the better elements of our nature, what have you.

But Cruz got this right. I think the initial temptation of, look, there's some things that happen at Trump rallies, I mean, a Trump supporter did cold cock a Black Lives Matter guy. A 78-year-old Trump supporter in a cowboy hat, his cowboy boots were so pointed this guy could have kicked excrement in the corner with no problem whatsoever. And this guy then turns to the camera (imitating protestor), "This guy shows up next time we're gonna take him out." Well, I mean, yeah, you're gonna have Republicans speak out against that kind of thing. It's called trying to gain advantage, but at the end of the day Cruz knows where this all comes from, and he said so.

END TRANSCRIPT

[connyankee]

been done with him and the whole bunch of fake conservatives. they have been making a fortune off of us for years by creating a fake conservative forum and led us along, letting us think they were actually listening and on our side. All the time, in league with libs, counting their money and laughing at us. Ef’ em.
cannot wait to vote in this election, then, change to an independent and tell the pollsters and my local republican group to pound sand. anger doesn’t begin to describe my feelings.

[connyankee]

Sessions or Christie (who i chose last june)

[Stentor]

Kasich will win Ohio.

Will that help him talk faster? I know he was born in McKees Rocks but pick it John.

[Luircin]

Cincinnati unrest?

Did you mean Chicago, or is there even more happening that Cruz blamed Trump for?

[Ozymandias Ghost]

Impossible. I have it on good authority that St. Rafael of Winnipeg is surging because Trump is a violent thug.”
_______________

Manitobans object!!! They have it on good authority that Sainte Rafael is Quebecois.

[tatown]

Come on ‘Lyin’ Iowa David it says 53% of Likely Republican Voters right on the chart! Stop pushing your propaganda lies and fess up. We are waiting for your official retraction!

[HamiltonJay]

I don’t understand Kasich’s game myself... Conventional wisdom would be on a sitting governor to carry his home state, but Trump like him or hate him has shown conventional wisdom to be incorrect a lot this cycle.

If Kasich takes OH, my guess is that his advisors etc think he can leverage that into more wins in the mid atlantic, upper midwest and north east... I can’t see Kasich playing in the west at all. There are certainly some big delegate states in those areas where Kasich could gain a lot of delegates fast, but I highly doubt he’s going to be able to turn Ohio massive wins elsewhere. Living in Western PA, I really can’t see Kasich winning PA, let alone NY, NJ, MD etc... Maybe he could pull out something in WI or IN? Doubt it.. but maybe... OBviously if he strings a couple of wins together he gets some momentum, the race changes... but I really doubt Kasich, especially when its a 3 or more man race, is going to leverage OH into much more... I am sure he believes otherwise... but I just don’t see it.

[tatown]

You are using hypothetical and date ‘data’. The newest data we have is this poll of LIKELY GOP voters and Trump is at 53%. How would you explain that Cruz would get to 54% if Kasich and Rubio dropped out? You can’t.

[SunkenCiv]

I think it’s either a spoof, or it’s actually referring to a head-to-head. OTOH, Hillary does suck, and the WSJ/NBC polls (that’s what’s on the screen) are cooked to degrade Trump’s candidacy.

[HamiltonJay]

Yes, its politics, there is always room for surprises... but that’s the thing... a single surprise isn’t going to upset the apple cart... you have to change the momentum, and 1 upset here or there can’t do it.

Personally I think after Saturday, and the insane reaction to it by the GOPe, including CRUZ.... I think Cruz shot himself in the head, and will lose easily 5 points in the polls most if not all of it picked up by Trump.

Time will tell.

[HamiltonJay]

Sorry Chicago.. wrong town

[Repeal 16-17]

If that image is accurate in November, Trump will beat Reagan’s 1984 electoral record.

[HamiltonJay]

Chicago, my mistake

[BagCamAddict]

A number of the individual questions are fairly interesting. The survey was conducted among 2000 General Population respondents (as opposed to Likely Voters, Registered Republicans, etc.).

All the questions & answers are here: https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/fz4kxi611b/econToplines.pdf

For example, question #10:

10. Which Republican candidate do you think has the best chance to win the general election
in November?
Ted Cruz . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14%
John Kasich . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8%
Marco Rubio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8%
Donald Trump . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24%

[RitaOK]

You’re pretty well safe with Lou Dobbs also.

[BagCamAddict]

Question #23:

23. If an election for president was going to be held now, would you vote for...
(Asked of registered voters)

The Democratic Party candidate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40%
The Republican Party candidate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44%
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12%
I would not vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%

I found Question #23 particularly interesting because out of the 2000 respondents, there were more Democrats than Republicans:

60. Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a ...?

Democrat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34%
Republican . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28%
Independent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28%
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8%