Free Republic

The published polling in this year’s presidential race is unusually inaccurate because this is the first election in which who votes determines how they vote. Obama’s massive leads among blacks, Latinos, young people, and single women vie with Romney’s margin among the elderly, married white women, and white men. Most pollsters are weighting their data on the assumption that the 2012 electorate will turn out in the same proportion as the 2008 voters did. But polling indicates a distinct lack of enthusiasm for the president among his core constituency. He’ll still carry them by heavy margins, but the turnout will...

The published polling in this year’s presidential race is unusually inaccurate because this is the first election in which who votes determines how they vote. Obama’s massive leads among blacks, Latinos, young people, and single women vie with Romney’s margin among the elderly, married white women, and white men. Tell me your demographic and I’ll tell you who you’re voting for and I’ll be right at least two times out of three! Most pollsters are weighting their data on the assumption that the 2012 electorate will turn out in the same proportion as the 2008 voters did. But polling indicates...

Dear Friend, In this video commentary, I discuss how new poll data — properly understood — shows a move toward Mitt. Tune in!

Republicans are getting depressed under an avalanche of polling suggesting that an Obama victory is in the offing. They, in fact, suggest no such thing! Here’s why: 1. All of the polling out there uses some variant of the 2008 election turnout as its model for weighting respondents and this overstates the Democratic vote by a huge margin. In English, this means that when you do a poll you ask people if they are likely to vote. But any telephone survey always has too few blacks, Latinos, and young people and too many elderly in its sample. That’s because some...

Dear Friend, In this video commentary, I discuss how Romney’s 47 percent comment could be a HUGE win for his campaign if he handles it right. Tune in!

Dear Friend, In this video commentary, I discuss how the key to the election is to understand the undecided vote. Tune in!

Dear Friend, In this video commentary, I discuss the political impact of the world wide explosion of anti-Americanism and how it exposes Obama’s weakness. Tune in!

Now that both conventions are over, the dimensions of the likely Romney triumph are becoming clear. Both through an analysis of the polling and an examination of the rhetoric, the parameters of the victory are emerging. Start with the polling. It appears that the bulk of the Obama post-convention bounce has been in blue states where his left-oriented convention stirred up the enthusiasm of an already committed group of voters. Among likely voters identified in The Washington Post poll -- taken after the conventions -- Obama holds a slim one-point edge. And an analysis of Rasmussen's state-by-state likely voter data...

Dear Friend, In this video commentary, I discuss how Mitt Romney’s campaign will dominate television in the final eight weeks in the swing states! Tune in!

Dear Friend, In this video commentary, I discuss how YOU can help defeat Obama. Field organization is crucial to winning this election. It is more important than television ads. More important even than money. Here’s how you can help even if you don’t live in a swing state. To volunteer go to www.IamAFP.com or phone 1-866-730-0150. Tune in!

Dear Friend, In this video commentary, I discuss how, after Gallup polls showed Romney leading, the Justice Department has sued the Gallup Company. This is an attempt at intimidation that reminds one of Nixon…or of Putin. Tune in!

Dear Friend, In this video commentary, I discuss how the presidential election shapes up post-conventions. Even though Obama got a bounce from his Convention, the two key questions that dominated the gathering will impose a construct on the election that Obama cannot escape. Tune in!

The Obama Administration’s Justice Department announced, on August 22nd, that it was joining a lawsuit by a former Gallup employee and whistleblower against the Gallup Corporation for allegedly overcharging the government on polling work. The announcement comes on the heels of a confrontation between Gallup staffers and Obama strategist David Axelrod in which he accused the company of using out of date sampling methods which, he said, generated polling data negative to the president. The whistleblower’s lawsuit has been kicking around since 2009, but the Justice Department joined the suit only after the run-in between Axelrod and Gallup in April...

Thursday night in Charlotte, Barack Obama doubled down on his liberalism, articulating the case for big government, greater regulation, and more spending (which he calls “investing”). He defined a choice that is starkly ideological, courageously embracing the left. We have not seen such positioning since the days of Mike Dukakis and Walter Mondale. And with good reason: the American people are conservative. Asked in a recent poll, “would you rather that government get out of your way or lend you a hand?” Americans voted 54% to 35% for the government to get out of the way. It was odd to...

Dear Friend, In this video commentary, I discuss Obama’s speech last night at the Democratic Nation Convention. Tune in!

In this video commentary, I discuss what Bill Clinton must do in his speech tonight to help Barack Obama succeed. Tune in!

Dear Friend, In this video commentary, I discuss what Obama will do if we re-elect him…and he can’t talk about it. Tune in!

Dear Friend, In this video commentary, I discuss how the Republican Convention makes it even harder for Obama’s negative attacks to stick. Tune in!

(These poll numbers are from a survey of 500 likely voters that I conducted on Thursday, August 23) Voters have hardened their views about the economy and now decisively reject Obama’s economic record and say they see no reason for it to get better in a second term. Instead, they conclude that the president doesn’t know how to turn the economy around, has limited business or economic experience, and is “in over his head.” Obama’s attacks on Romney and his charge that the Republican would only help the rich have failed to blunt Romney’s strength on the economic issue. But,...

With all the conflicting polls and survey samples using registered — as opposed to likely — voters, I decided to conduct my own poll using the same methodologies I used so successfully for Clinton. On Thursday, August 23rd, I conducted a national survey of 500 likely voters through live telephone interviews. The poll finds Romney ahead of Obama by 50-43! — far, far different from the published polls. (The sample was 33% Democrat, 31% Republican, 11% black, and 8% Latino). Apart from the head-to-head vote question, my survey tracks with the others on most of its internals. Obama’s personal favorability...