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Going into tonight's debate in Charleston the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll has some interesting numbers. Donald Trump is still holding, and even expanding, his following but in a one on one matchup with Ted Cruz he comes off second behind Cruz but beats Rubio is all the others are disregarded. This is along the lines of what we have been predicting all along. Trump may be leading a multi-candidate pack but he has never polled enough to actually win the nomination. Thus, it is going to be interested when the field is whittled down and the delegates are selected...

The host of HBO's Real Time, which returns Friday, on why he's scared of Cruz, and the 'underage hookers' scandal that could sink Hillary Clinton's campaign. For the past month and change, there's been a void in the political commentary arena--and political incorrectness, in general. Yes, Bill Maher was on vacation. But the acerbic satirist seems recharged and ready to dive headfirst into election season--which he'll do by kicking off the return of his late-night series Real Time with Bill Maher with a big campaign of his own. You'll have to tune in to HBO Friday night to see exactly...

After I wrote about the twisted codependency of Donald Trump and the media a few weeks back, some readers got in touch to complain that the attention paid to Trump had all but obscured the rise of Bernie Sanders. In an interview with CNN that week, Sanders himself made the same point, referring to a report that claimed network news shows had devoted 234 minutes to Trump and only 10 to his campaign. (Yes, 10 - for the entire year.) Judging from what's happening right now in Iowa and New Hampshire, Sanders and his avid supporters have a legitimate point....

DES MOINES -- Like so much else at this point in the campaign, Wednesday morning's Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa poll could be looked at in either of two ways for the leading candidates. For Ted Cruz, the glass-half-full interpretation is that the best poll in the state still shows him ahead -- by 3 points over Donald Trump -- when several other recent polls in Iowa had shown a narrow advantage for Trump instead. The glass-half-empty interpretation is that Cruz's lead is diminished: The previous DMR/Bloomberg poll, taken a month ago, had Cruz ahead by 10 points. Our Iowa...

ABC/Randy Sager(NEW YORK) -- Ted Cruz has reached top-rank popularity among Republicans and Chris Christie's favorability rating is most improved in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, while Donald Trump, Ben Carson and Jeb Bush all have stumbled in the battle for GOP hearts and minds. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton continues to far surpass Bernie Sanders in favorability among party regulars, and she's vastly more popular within the Democratic Party than are any of the Republican candidates within the GOP base. Still, gender and racial gaps mark Clinton's standings, and Sanders pushes back among young adults, independents and...

This is really damn amazing. I mean really amazing. I told you guys the Republican Establishment was coming to terms with Donald Trump because they hate Ted Cruz so much. This is another data point.Follow this story from the Politico. A leading Republican pollster privately told Speaker Paul Ryan and his leadership team Sen. Ted Cruz would be the biggest drag on House Republicans should he win his party's nomination, according to multiple sources who attended a small meeting of senior GOP lawmakers earlier this month.During the gathering in Annapolis, Maryland, Dave Sackett of the Tarrance Group reviewed a recent...

The Idaho Republican Party held its annual Winter Meeting over the weekend and held a presidential candidate reception and straw poll as part of the festivities. It was great news for U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), who received 40 percent of the vote, followed by U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) at 18 percent. Donald Trump came in third at 13 percent, while Ben Carson and U.S. Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) received 11 and 8 percent, respectively. No other candidate received more than 3 percent in the Friday evening straw poll vote. The next morning, the Republican Liberty Caucus of Idaho...

That Rubio surge is coming annnnny minute now. In fairness, he's only two points behind Kasich and Cruz in a poll with a margin of error of 4.8 percent, so he's effectively tied for second. On the other hand, how many Rubio fans are excited to find him battling John Effin' Kasich for center-right votes less than a month from primary day?

NEW HAMPSHIRE: TRUMP’S LEAD GROWS Cruz, Kasich, Rubio in second tier as Carson fades West Long Branch, NJ – Donald Trump has increased his already sizable lead in the New Hampshire Republican primary while three candidates battle for second place according to the latest Monmouth University Poll. Only 1-in-3 voters have completely locked in their vote choice, while 1-in-4 are still very much up for grabs. Another 4-in-10 voters have a strong candidate preference but are willing to keep their options open. About 1-in-3 (32%) likely GOP primary voters in New Hampshire currently back Donald Trump for the presidential nomination,...

DES MOINES, Iowa (AP) -- Three weeks before Iowa kicks off the 2016 presidential campaign, Donald Trump and Ted Cruz are generating overwhelming enthusiasm among Republican voters in the state, along with concern, though not panic, among the party professionals who believe both are unelectable in November against the Democratic nominee. Despite such fears, talk of a "takedown" effort aimed at either Trump or Cruz appears to have faded as the Feb. 1 caucuses in Iowa near. For now, there is nervous acceptance that two of the Republican Party's most divisive figures may stay at the top of the presidential...

Link only: http://magicvalley.com/news/opinion/columns/other-view-why-rubio-is-fleeing-the-establishment/article_11736d0f-be40-53f1-b803-ae8e292946dc.html

Senator Ted Cruz is the most interesting candidate in the US presidential race right now. As a darling of the Tea Party, in 2012, he swept into the Senate, representing Texas, having campaigned on deeply conservative principles and policies. At the time, many dismissed him as a rabble-rouser who would wind up as a less successful version of George W Bush. Now, not only is he leading in the polls in Iowa, but he has also beat out senator Marco Rubio as the dark horse of the race thus far. Cruz has been criticised for having some of the most...

The heated rhetoric and large candidate field have made the Republican primary race look loud and messy. But here's a simple way to view the landscape: The GOP electorate is divided into three, broad groups, each roughly equal in size. There is the socially conservative wing, which has elevated Sen. Ted Cruz and Ben Carson. The GOP's establishment-friendly, more-centrist wing backs Sen. Marco Rubio and a few others. And then there are the Donald Trump voters, a largely working-class and male group drawn together by Mr. Trump's unique persona and, in large measure, his promise to end illegal immigration. With...

According to the newest polling date made available to us by Real Clear Politics, former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum is faring badly. Very badly. In fact, at 0.8%, Rick Santorum is polling slightly better than myself into the race for the Republican nomination, and I'm proud to say I have not spent a dime on my campaign. So what does a hapless former state Senator with a major Google problem do when he sits currently in eleventh place and has yet to make it to the main debate stage? Waste his money attacking the second-place candidate: Texas Senator Ted Cruz....

According to the newest polling date made available to us by Real Clear Politics, former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum is faring badly. Very badly. In fact, at 0.8%, Rick Santorum is polling slightly better than myself into the race for the Republican nomination, and I'm proud to say I have not spent a dime on my campaign. So what does a hapless former state Senator with a major Google problem do when he sits currently in eleventh place and has yet to make it to the main debate stage? Waste his money attacking the second-place candidate: Texas Senator Ted Cruz....

Now we're getting somewhere. When our governor went after Texas Sen. Ted Cruz last week, the dispute starkly defined the battle lines in this year's Republican presidential primary. Someone has to represent the conservatives in the party. And someone has to represent the moderate/establishment voters. When it comes to the conservatives, Cruz and Donald Trump seem to have their votes locked up. But we've got a real race for spot of the establishment candidate. There are at least four candidates in contention. None of them wants to mess with Trump. But if Christie can establish himself as the establishment's hit...

The South will play a crucial role in the 2016 presidential contest, both in the nominating process and in the General Election. For the Republicans, Dixie's plethora of primaries come quickly after the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary and will probably determine the nominee. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton's strong support among African Americans in the Southern primaries should cement her already commanding lead for her party's nomination. And in the General Election, at least three Southern states are likely to be competitive and may well determine the outcome of the race for the White House. Until...

If you had to vote in your state primary/caucus today, knowing what you know now about the various declared and probable candidates, who would you vote for? Why? Who would you like to see as the running mate for your preferred candidate? If you could help staff your candidates cabinet and other top appointments, who would you choose? If you could recommend different congressional leaders than we have now, who would they be? And who would you like to see on the Supreme Court and why? And finally, feel free to donate to Free Republic.

MATH was never my strongest subject, so maybe I'm just not crunching the numbers right. But the more I stare at them, the less sense Marco Rubio makes. Rubio as the front-runner, I mean. As the probable Republican nominee. According to odds makers and prediction markets, he's the best bet. According to many commentators, too....

---snip--- Comes now a story in the New York Times, making a similar point or two:Donald Trump holds a dominant position in national polls in no small part because he is extremely strong among people on the periphery of the Republican coalition. He is strongest among Republicans who are less affluent, less educated and less likely to turn out to vote. His very best voters are self-identified Republicans who nonetheless are registered as Democrats. It's a coalition that's concentrated in the South, Appalachia and the industrial North, according to data provided to The Upshot by Civis Analytics, a Democratic data...