Posted on 03/06/2018 4:42:30 PM PST by lasereye
Republicans are learning an uncomfortable reality about the political environment for 2018: Tax cuts, conservative culture-war staples, and even Nancy Pelosi herself probably won’t be enough to overcome the deep hole that President Trump has put them in. With the White House awash in scandal and struggling to articulate its agenda, the political mood has turned so grim that Republicans are in danger of losing an upcoming special election in the heart of Trump country.
That’s the lesson to draw from the surprisingly competitive campaign Democrat Conor Lamb is running in a Pittsburgh-area district Trump easily carried by 20 points, surviving millions of dollars in outside GOP attack ads portraying Lamb as a liberal in disguise. Even a close loss in such a reliably conservative area would raise red flags that Democrats are on the verge of a major landslide in the November midterms.
If Lamb wins, it would be an unmistakable verdict that the healthy economy and Trump tax cuts will be overshadowed by the administration’s dysfunction and roiling suburban anger. Though the economy may play to the GOP’s advantage, the culture wars have turned squarely in the Democratic Party’s favor—and that’s what matters in today’s politics.
Here’s how tricky things have gotten for Republicans: GOP outside groups have dramatically scaled back their ads promoting the party’s tax cut, with the messaging barely moving the needle in the district’s working-class confines. The latest round of advertisements focus on law-and-order issues, like immigration and crime. A new spot from the Paul Ryan-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund super PAC slams Lamb for supporting “amnesty to illegal immigrants” because he “worked in the Obama administration.” A National Republican Congressional Committee ad portrays Lamb as soft on crime because he negotiated a plea deal with a notorious drug kingpin during his tenure as a federal prosecutor. These culture-war ads are reminiscent of those run by Ed Gillespie in his failed Virginia gubernatorial campaign, and they carry the whiff of desperation.
Meanwhile, Republicans are sufficiently concerned about the energy from the Democratic base that CLF is distributing a mailer in suburban precincts of Allegheny County “thanking” Lamb for supporting gun rights. It’s a cynical attempt to dampen Democratic enthusiasm for his campaign. The mailer, first reported by The Washington Post, underscores how even in a district where Second Amendment support is strong, gun control has become a fresh rallying cry for a supercharged Democratic electorate post-Parkland.
In another warning sign for Republicans, there are indications that conservative-minded voters in this district value government entitlements as much as tax cuts. Lamb’s rebuttal to the GOP tax-cut argument was that he supported “middle-class tax cuts” but not ones that could lead to cuts to Social Security and Medicare. In an acknowledgment that the Democratic message resonated, a new CLF ad turns the tables and accuses Pelosi of supporting “massive Medicare cuts” while arguing that Lamb “won’t protect seniors.” As Republicans learned in the 2016 presidential campaign, the agenda backed by GOP donors doesn’t necessarily jibe with the issues that the GOP rank-and-file cares about—especially in a blue-collar district like this one.
Republicans are eager to pin a disappointing result in this election on their candidate—state Rep. Rick Saccone—but the reality is the race is being defined on Trump’s terms. Saccone is running as an unapologetic Trump supporter, calling himself the president’s “wingman” in an interview with National Journal last month. Trump will be campaigning for Saccone on March 10, and he is likely to promote his newly announced tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. It’s a protectionist position that Saccone quickly embraced, and one that is popular with the district’s sizable union membership.
This southwest Pennsylvania district is about as Trumpian as it gets: racially homogeneous, predominantly blue-collar, and filled with energy workers revolutionizing the region’s economy. To Lamb’s credit, he’s run a disciplined campaign and staked out moderate views on guns and fracking that have distinguished him from typical Democrats. But if Republicans can’t hold onto this seat with more than $9 million of outside GOP money invested here, it will serve as an awfully rude awakening to what’s likely to come for the midterms.
With the way Republican voters are not coming out to vote, and the way Democtats are coming out to vote in droves, it seems likely the Dems will hold all their Senate seats....Also keep in mind Thad Cochrans seat is up for grabs now
You’re delusional, troll.
That’s funny. I don’t remember writing anything with respect to polling, in 2016.
I don’t get any buyers remorse for Trump, so this is just more anti Trump bs in that regard. However, the Dems have been working 24/7 keeping their base upset and energized.
Dems did this in 2008 - found attractive “moderate” candidates to run. Pelosi marched them all off the cliff passing Obama Care etc.
If the pubbie will get out and talk to the people, he can point out how the Pelosi does not represent their values, and address their concerns. A few years ago, we had a reliable Dem area for 70 years finally flip to Republican.
The candidate spent many long days going house to house and talking one on one with the people-not just having rallies etc. He got 70% of the vote.
The one and only thing that had stopped many of these people before was their support of the union. He told them he would not do anything that would hurt jobs for his constituents.
Like most news, this is just a piece of propaganda Psops. The Dem may win, or the Dem may lose. Better pay attention to who counts those votes.
A series of special elections where a party wins a bunch of seats they haven’t held in a long time have been a pretty good predictor of mid-terms. Maybe this year is the big exception.
AZ and TX weren’t the general. They have been winning all these specials precisely because their base is turning out very heavily, which is due to two things, neither of which apply in primary elections:
1) The Dems’ methods for turning people out to the polls, which are very good. The Democrats aren’t trying to get people out to the polls in primaries. Individual candidates might be but not the Dem organization, which is very different.
2) The Democrat base’s hatred for Trump. That motivates high turnout with no need for the Democrats to even do anything.
There was no comment on any polls there.
I’ve said Saccone should make it about impeachment. Lamb would say he’s not in favor of it - but if the Dems take over the House, Trump’s going to be impeached. Saccone has to pound that point, and also basically call Lamb a liar.
That’s true too. Several points he could pound on.
It was. That was not a comment on any poll. But if you want to say it was then I’m not going to argue the point.
I haven’t commented on any specific polls in this post either. My prediction of a Democrat wave in November is not based on polls.
Are you 16?
Midterms are always difficult for incumbent first term Presidents.
Wave ? LMAO
I said if you want to say I was commenting on polls there I won't argue the point. Your point is what exactly? As I said I am not predicting what happens this Nov. based on any poll.
Your prediction of a Democrat wave would be consistent with your expectation of a Clinton victory.
What's that supposed to mean? If I was wrong then, then I must be wrong now?
The point of this discussion is eluding me. Good night.
Well, yes and no.
In most of these special state elections, the turnout has actually been exceptionally low: CT was 3000 people, with the D winning by 51 votes; GA senate was 9%.
As best I can tell, ONLY the FL Sarasota race had even decent turnout. So, no, the left is NOT “mobilizing their base.” The conservatives are, as I’ve been saying, back to normal lives and sick of constant electioneering.
Second, the left has been pouring ridiculous amounts of money into races such as AL, GA congressional seat they lost, VA, and most recently Sarasota. GOP on the other had has been saving it for the 2018 generals, and they have a lot of it. about 5-10 times MORE than the Ds.
Third, when you get to elections that “matter,” we are 6-1. The only loss-—while a big one in AL-—was 100% candidate related. Moore got 685,000 FEWER votes than Shelby did just one year earlier, and 350,000 fewer than Sessions did when he ran UNOPPOSED six years earlier. AL was entirely on Moore.
But AZCD8, the GOP buried the Ds in turnout 2:1. In TX, despite MOST of the GOP running unopposed, Rs had 500,000 more . . . in a state supposedly going blue.
In short, these seemingly unending low-level specials not only do not excite our side, they irritate us.
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