Posted on 04/28/2008 5:58:01 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2008 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, John McCain would receive 240 Electoral Votes and the Democratic Presidential candidate would receive 298 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of John McCain winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then John McCain should get 251.65 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/7/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/31/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/24/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/17/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/10/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/3/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/25/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/18/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/11/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/4/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/7/2008
Of those 240 Electoral Votes, about how many does Senator Caine deserve?
McCain up this week by a few.
Thanks for the ping.
...I disagree with the Ohio, New Hampshire, and Nevada predictions...I think McCain takes those three with their 29 EV’s...that gives him 269...and the Dem 269...and Article Twelve kicks in, and the House of Representatives picks the President, which the current House would doubtlessly make the Dem...don’t laugh, it could happen, it is well within the bounds of possibility...
So this is McCain vs. Some Democrat and not McCain vs. HRC or BHO?
That seems as though it would completely skew the results...
looks like a mccain landslide
If dems cannot win bigger with candidate unknown then they are doomed once the pick is made.
(Oh, wait a minute. Did I read that right?????)
Whatabout Colorado?
After the DNC fiasco the good folks of Colorado will not want either Hillary or Obama.
Actually, he's down 5 from last week.
No wonder. All the media can talk about is Clinton and Obamma.
251.65 Electoral Votes. This week.
Take it up with the poster. I see the discreprency as well.
Chart said McCain 240 this week and 245 last week. I guess it’s all in how you look at it.
After the DNC fiasco the good folks of Colorado will not want either Hillary or Obama...
...which is exactly why the Dems, if they had any sense at all, will back Obama, because Hilary’s losing by double digits to McCain currently in the state, while BO is up by a couple...the math for the Dems is simple, lose Colorado, and there goes the election...or so I believe...
Pa and NH will go for MAc over Obambi.
McCain is at 240 EV this week. Nevada, which has 5 EV, flipped to the Dems. This number reflects the winner-take-all nature of Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of John McCain winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then John McCain should get 251.65 Electoral Votes. This is up from the weighted probability of last week which was 247.86. While McCain went below 50% in Nevada this week, his chances of winning several other states increased in the past week. For example, McCain was at 70% in Florida last week. This week he is at 80% in Florida. McCain made similar gains in some other states within the past week. That is why the weighted average EVs went up, while the winner-take-all EVs went down.
Those were 3 states I was looking at too. Plus New Mexico. And when did we lose Iowa? That was a rockrib Republican state not long ago.
There are still a few states really working on for the GOP, depending on who the D nominee ends up being.
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