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Thirty Years On, How Well Do Global Warming Predictions Stand Up?
WSJ ^ | June 21, 2018 7:24 p.m. ET | By Pat Michaels and Ryan Maue

Posted on 06/22/2018 10:27:23 AM PDT by Red Badger

James Hansen issued dire warnings in the summer of 1988. Today earth is only modestly warmer.

James E. Hansen wiped sweat from his brow. Outside it was a record-high 98 degrees on June 23, 1988, as the NASA scientist testified before the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources during a prolonged heat wave, which he decided to cast as a climate event of cosmic significance. He expressed to the senators his “high degree of confidence” in “a cause-and-effect relationship between the greenhouse effect and observed warming.”

With that testimony and an accompanying paper in the Journal of Geophysical Research, Mr. Hansen lit the bonfire of the greenhouse vanities, igniting a world-wide debate that continues today about the energy structure of the entire planet. President Obama’s environmental policies were predicated on similar models of rapid, high-cost warming. But the 30th anniversary of Mr. Hansen’s predictions affords an opportunity to see how well his forecasts have done—and to reconsider environmental policy accordingly.

Mr. Hansen’s testimony described three possible scenarios for the future of carbon dioxide emissions. He called Scenario A “business as usual,” as it maintained the accelerating emissions growth typical of the 1970s and ’80s. This scenario predicted the earth would warm 1 degree Celsius by 2018. Scenario B set emissions lower, rising at the same rate today as in 1988. Mr. Hansen called this outcome the “most plausible,” and predicted it would lead to about 0.7 degree of warming by this year. He added a final projection, Scenario C, which he deemed highly unlikely: constant emissions beginning in 2000. In that forecast, temperatures would rise a few tenths of a degree before flatlining after 2000.

(Excerpt) Read more at wsj.com ...


TOPICS: Agriculture; Astronomy; History; Science
KEYWORDS: carbondioxide; climatechange; globalwarming; greenhouseeffect; hansen; jameshansen
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To: Red Badger

I remember those days! First it was...
THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT!
Then..
THE COMING ICE AGE!
Then Popular Science said they would no longer use the term THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT as it was untrue, but about eight years later it was EL NINO, then GLOBAL WARMING!

Now CLIMATE CHANGE!

Somewhere in all this mess was the Ozone Depletion and other nasties thought up on the spur of the moment.

Always trying to keep the public frightened of an imaginary booger man that only the Politician can save you from.


21 posted on 06/22/2018 10:47:58 AM PDT by Ruy Dias de Bivar
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To: Red Badger

Well, it is 92 already and will be knocking on three digits today. Of course, it’s summertime in TX so what do you expect. Back around 1980, it got up to 117 so looks like we’ll be 20 degrees cooler.


22 posted on 06/22/2018 10:51:35 AM PDT by bgill (CDC site, "We don't know how people are infected with Ebola.")
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To: taxcontrol
Requires subscription to read

Apparently, too many Free Republic visitors can't read either.
Don't post links to pay sites, d****t!!

Ever wonder why "freepathons" drag out longer and longer...?

23 posted on 06/22/2018 10:51:51 AM PDT by publius911 (CA-the perfect storm of a criminally inept Legislature)
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To: Ruy Dias de Bivar

Exactly so. This particular bogey is about run its course. People tune it out. They will create a new one...................


24 posted on 06/22/2018 10:52:29 AM PDT by Red Badger (When Obama and VJ go to prison for treason, will Roseanne get her show back?...)
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To: Red Badger; All
"He expressed to the senators [??? emphasis added] his “high degree of confidence” in “a cause-and-effect relationship between the greenhouse effect and observed warming.”"
FR: Never Accept the Premise of Your Opponent’s Argument

While federal policing of the environment is arguably a good idea, patriots are reminded of the following.

The states have never expressly constitutional delegated to the corrupt, post-17th Amendment ratification feds the specific power to regulate, tax and spend in the name of environmental issues, such action an unconstitutional interference in the affairs of the sovereign states.

Patriots, we really need to support Pres. Trump in leading the states to repeal the 16th and ill-conceived 17th Amendments.

25 posted on 06/22/2018 10:52:48 AM PDT by Amendment10
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To: Red Badger
Read it here:

30 Years On, How Well Do Global Warming Predictions Stand Up?

26 posted on 06/22/2018 10:59:16 AM PDT by yesthatjallen
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To: rktman

The gist is probably that what Hansen thought was least-likely to happen, happened - temps cooled.

BTW, note that that whole 1988 Congressional hearing was a set-up ... Dem staffers deliberately arranged for the AC to be turned off so everyone would feel really warm

Deliberate maniupulation


27 posted on 06/22/2018 10:59:30 AM PDT by canuck_conservative
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To: canuck_conservative

Dems trying to manipulate an outcome? I thought that was the Russians job. ;-)


28 posted on 06/22/2018 11:06:48 AM PDT by rktman (Enlisted in the Navy in '67 to protect folks rights to strip my rights. WTH?)
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To: yesthatjallen

Thanks. That one worked for me.


29 posted on 06/22/2018 11:08:16 AM PDT by BBell (not drinking, just a smart a$$)
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To: BBell

You’re welcome.


30 posted on 06/22/2018 11:13:53 AM PDT by yesthatjallen
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Comment #31 Removed by Moderator

To: Red Badger

So they just kinda skipped over the part where we learned climate change science was based on fraud ? Climategate emails ? Intent to deceive. Conspiracy. Collusion. Fraud. Etc.. was all admitted by the perbs. So we kind just cover our eyes, ears and mouth and pretend it did not get exposed as a fraud ?


32 posted on 06/22/2018 11:17:36 AM PDT by justa-hairyape (The user name is sarcastic. Although at times it may not appear that way.)
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To: Red Badger

Hansen is the start of it. A fraud who should have been fired from NASA. Why did they ever put up with him. NASA should clean house and get back to its primary mission, putting Americans in space, exploring, and claiming space, the moon, and all for the US. If we don’t, you can be sure China, India, and Russia will. That would be our demise as leading country in world.


33 posted on 06/22/2018 11:19:00 AM PDT by Reno89519 (No Amnesty! No Catch-and-Release! Just Say No to All Illegal Aliens! Arrest & Deport!)
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To: Red Badger

Why stop at 30 years? How about going back 50 years and the panic that overflowed the 1970s about global cooling and that we were all going to die freezing in the dark ...


34 posted on 06/22/2018 11:20:04 AM PDT by BlueLancer (Antifa and Social Justice Warriors (SJWs) = SturmAbteilung)
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To: COBOL2Java
Man made global warming is a hoax.

Global climate change is not a hoax but the assertion that man causes the climate is.

35 posted on 06/22/2018 11:22:12 AM PDT by MosesKnows (Love Many, Trust Few, and Always Paddle Your Own Canoe)
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To: yesthatjallen

Thank you...I appreciate that link. I tried all other ways but hit the paywall.


36 posted on 06/22/2018 11:27:36 AM PDT by rlmorel (Leftists: They believe in the "Invisible Hand" only when it is guided by government.)
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To: rlmorel

You’re welcome.


37 posted on 06/22/2018 11:31:52 AM PDT by yesthatjallen
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To: COBOL2Java

Does NOT work!


38 posted on 06/22/2018 11:36:52 AM PDT by nopardons
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To: nopardons

Did you put the quarter in your CD drive?


39 posted on 06/22/2018 11:50:37 AM PDT by COBOL2Java (Marxism: Wonderful theory, wrong species)
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To: bgill

“Back around 1980, it got up to 117 so looks like we’ll be 20 degrees cooler.”

Sounds like warming to me!

Signed,
Idiot

:-)


40 posted on 06/22/2018 12:32:11 PM PDT by edh
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