Posted on 09/09/2012 3:03:19 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
I’ve been wondering the same thing as John, and confronting the same grim hypothesis–that the calculus of the modern welfare state has passed a tipping point (I mean, just who do we think those 47 million people on food stamps are going to vote for)? This is, of course, just a variation of the classical critique of democracy–that the poor majority would vote to take from the wealthy minority. This always entails the death of democracy in the fullness of time.
I have before wondered, and still wonder, whether this election might be a replay of 1980, which was close until Reagan broke it open over the last weekend. This is one plausible scenario for a Romney victory. My pal Clark Judge offers similar thoughts on U.S. News and World Report, in a piece entitled “Why the Obama-Romney Race May Not Be the Dead Heat the Polls Describe“:
Pollsters will tell you that they cannot always count on voters to level with them about which candidates they favor. For example, Gov. Scott Walker’s victory in the Wisconsin recall election several months ago was predicted by the polls, but his margin was not. It was a larger margin than the surveys had forecast. Similarly in 2004, Sen. John Kerry went to bed on election night believing he would be the next president. He woke to a surprise, as did Democrats in 1994 and, to a lesser degree, in 1980. Note, in all these elections it was the Democratic who got the unwelcome surprise.
Meanwhile, one of my supremely numerate friends (a real Ph.D in science) writes in with some observations about polling:
The response rate has gotten so low that the reported differences in popularity have become meaningless. The main source of error is almost surely no longer due to random sampling error but rather to the unknown distribution of opinion in the unsampled part of the population that declines to respond. Let me know if you need a reference for that.
By comparison, it’s as if you’re getting all excited about annual temperature changes over the just the desert areas of the earth without being concerned with other land surfaces or the oceans.
There are ways to get high response rates in polls, but there seems to be a form of Gresham’s Law at work, keeping such methods from being applied, at least in the polls that are made public with their response rates.
We’ll see. Pollsters supposedly have rigorous ways of countering the response rate (and cell phone) problem, but I’m skeptical. For now I’m keeping my fingers crossed.
it’s close because the media wants it close
Part 2: Entitlements
Part 3: Entitlements
The fact that Romney is petty much everyone’s last choice candidate couldn’t possibly have anything to do with it./s
The response rate has gotten so low that the reported differences in popularity have become meaningless. The main source of error is almost surely no longer due to random sampling error but rather to the unknown distribution of opinion in the unsampled part of the population that declines to respond. Let me know if you need a reference for that.
I have read it is not uncommon for up to 40 of the sampled refusing to cooperate.
They are a stupid lot.
But, they will not take us down with them.
So how come the polls have been so accurate in the last presidential elections
Most polls are rigged to get the answer the pollster wants...
Years ago a pollster called me up asked could i spare 10 mins for 10 questions and maybe a couple of follow ups, i said sure first question was am i voter ,what was my age and then she asked my stance on abortion after i told her she said “thank you for your time” and hung up.
I did not give her the right answers that why the phone call ended on the third Question.
Romney's not perfect so people decide to vote for the total douche and his cast of misfits & CROOKS.
Americans (spoiled by the most successful society EVER) let themselves be seduced by Bambi, DWS, Nancy, Harry, Gore, NBC, MSNBC, CNN, Sandra the Slut, Plugs, Klintoo the RAPIST, Hollywood, ...)
Sigh
PUBLIC polls are simply mind games now.
PUBLIC polls are simply mind games now.
PUBLIC polls are simply mind games now.
With caller ID on almost all phones, who even answers an unknown number today? People are closed up from pollsters and solicitors enough to make an impact of some kind.
I know 3 on food stamps that are NOT voting for o. i will be driving two of them to the polls. they know that those desparately needing them will lose them when this deck of cards falls.
Got an email from my county party a few days ago and I can go to the headquarters and PAY MONEY to get Romney signs and car sticker. No, thanks, I'm keeping my Newt bumper sticker on my car forever. For one thing, I can find my car better with that magnet sticker on my car. I also have a Newt cup. I will never have Romney anything any where near me.
I know you have preps and so do I - that's the most important thing to have when the two parties are clueless and going down the trail to oblivion with the rest of the country.
Romney is far from just “not perfect” and all the denial in the world ain’t gonna cover that reality up.
There are ways to get high response rates in polls, but there seems to be a form of Gresham’s Law at work, keeping such methods from being applied, at least in the polls that are made public with their response rates.
When they are close to the election and they know their work will be verified against actual election data they put the extra expense and effort into getting good response rates. But even then they sometimes get the results embarrassingly wrong - eg. Presidential election 1980, Minnesota gubernatorial election 1998.
But the Powerline boys tend to be doomsters [IMO] and they are basing their opinion on polls of registered voters and Democrat-skewed polls of likely voters.
I'm not Pollyanna -- I don't think this election is sewn up by any means. But it's too early to hang crepe, too.
It’s close because Romney is listening to his campaign manager who is not very conservative and is telling Romney to stick to jobs and the economy and not to go after Obama on ideology.
Above all else, this election is about ideology, about God given rights, about the constitution and checks and balances. If there are no God given rights, all rights come from the state and the state is supreme, no more, “We the People” because the state controls the election rules, no more checks and balances because the state is always right, and no more private property rights.
It has probably been explained to you at least 3000 times. So if you still don’t get it.....sign.
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