Posted on 10/03/2012 10:51:40 AM PDT by jmaroneps37
The National Journal (NJ) has done its part to make believe Barack Obama is leading Mitt Romney. Without regard for current realities they nonetheless pressed on but could not muster more than a 47/47 tie between the two.
N J used 2008 as its projected turnout model as if 2010 never happened and we have all been in a state of suspended animation since November 2008. For liberals this is a comforting day dream but it has little connection to reality.
As per Rasmussen, in 2010 Republicans held a slim 1.3 point Party registration edge (not Party Identification – but actual Party registration). That election brought a historic beating for Democrats at every level from the Senate down to state assemblies.
Rasmussen’s current numbers show a 4.3 point registration edge for Republicans; more than THREE TIMES larger than their 2010 edge.
Last weekend Gallup reported Republican enthusiasm is at 64 percent, 16 points higher than Democrat enthusiasm to vote. These two sets of numbers wipe away any argument for using the 2008 voter turnout model as N.J has done.
By using a 2008 turnout model N.J is saying we will see an electorate of 36 percent Democratic, 29 percent Republican, and 30 percent Independent voters go to the polls next month.
These numbers are seriously skewed. When they are un-skewed N J’s poll actually shows Romney is in a solid lead.
Using Rasmussen’s reported actual Party registrations of 37.6% Republican 33.3% Democrat and 30% Independent voters shows N J committed a sampling skew of +2.7 Democrats and - 8.6 Republicans. This resulted in an 11.3 point skew toward Obama.
If all of its gyrations and skews could only get Obama to a tie, Romney is in very good shape.
Reviewing Rasmussen’s generic Congressional ballot numbers……
(Excerpt) Read more at coachisright.com ...
I hope you are right.
.....oh but he is......in his own mind....
That's why they call it Narcissism....
Here it is. 40% of union households vote Pubie
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2011/jul/07/bill-kristol/bill-kristol-says-40-percent-republicans-voted-joh/
I disagree- I think the 2010 model will prove to be the most accurate
It is BECAUSE Of Obama that the 2010 (R) turnout was so big - and it will be even more so this time
I noticed the same thing reading the assumptions. Romney is leading among Independents, according to the poll, 49 to 41, so I’m wondering why he’s not leading, and the split comes out Dem +7, and that answers that question. If Romney is polling even giving a skew like that, that’s great news for him.
How is that Rasmussen isn’t showing a lead for Romney? That’s a bit confusing.
All the polling I’m seeing is showing two things:
1)GOP enthusiasm is higher than Dem.
2)Romney is doing better among Independents.
It’s perplexing none of the polls show Romney leading. I understand that many polls are skewing the Democratic voters, but not all are.
Given that Independents usually break for the challenger, it seems more like this is Romney’s race to lose than Obama’s, notwithstanding what one hears.
There’s another element in regard to Ras.
First, remember Ras HAS had Romney either tied or leading, more than once. I think you’re wondering why his most recent keeps showing O a couple points up. That was dealt with on another thread. Ras has admitted he has given the Dems a more favorable percentage, just recently, because he says more Dems are responding to his polls, fewer Republicans, just recently.
No kidding. But that doesn’t mean there are fewer Republicans or they aren’t chomping at the bit to vote. They’re more and more not answering polls.
IF Ras were still using the exact same breakdown he was when he showed Romney leading or tied, it would not show O ahead.
“That was dealt with on another thread. Ras has admitted he has given the Dems a more favorable percentage, just recently, because he says more Dems are responding to his polls, fewer Republicans, just recently.”
This is odd. Who cares who responds to the polls? The question is who’s going to vote! Wouldn’t his balancing methodology take into account that more Dems are answering polls? I’ll have to see if I can find the other thread.
but something tells me that we could very well see a Romney landslide....
if that happens, may God guide him and us to right our sinking ship....
pray folks....pray that at least we can hold our heads up again in the world....
I agree the GOP will turn out, what I am saying is the GAP won’t be as big, because even if Obama tanks, they’ll manage to drag enough supporters (or imagine them) to have a better turnout that 2010...it won’t be close to 2008 though.
still have to disagree- but at least it is looking pretty obvious that turnout will be down for dems and up for GOP
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