Revisiting History: Did JFK Lose the Popular Vote?

RCP ^ | 10/19/2012 | Sean Trende

[SeekAndFind]

Right now the RCP Averages are showing an odd situation. Mitt Romney leads nationally by one point, but trails in the Electoral College by a 294-244 count. Moreover, electoral vote number 270 (right now, Wisconsin) favors President Obama by a two-point margin.

While I believe that an electoral vote/popular vote disconnect of this magnitude is unlikely, it certainly is possible that we’ll see another split between the two, especially if the popular vote is decided by less than a point. If that happens, Americans will once again receive a civics lesson in how presidents are really chosen.

In particular, we’ll be reminded of the four canonical instances where the electoral vote and popular vote went to different candidates: 1824, 1876, 1888, and 2000. These are fairly well known to political junkies.

Far less well-known is that we should probably include a fifth such split: 1960.

Now, just to be clear, the argument that Richard Nixon should be credited with a popular vote win in 1960 doesn’t rest on theories about dead people voting in Chicago or cows voting in Texas. It does rest on a fuller understanding of Southern voting history.

Before going further, credit where credit is due. This analysis isn’t something I discovered on my own. Instead, it derives from a pair of articles published in PS: Political Science and Politics. The first, authored by University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign professor Brian Gaines, appeared in the March 2001 edition of that journal. The second, by George Mason University professor Gordon Tullock, appeared in the January 2004 edition. Even back in 1960, Congressional Quarterly concluded that it was Nixon, not Kennedy, who had won the popular vote, for the reasons that follow.

[Leto]

The average of state polls is a lagging indicator. As pointed out here they are done less frequently than the national polls additionally they are more likely to use the 2008 voter turnout models and when they are averaged they will include a number of predebate polls still....

IMO based on an even voter turnout model (less than 2010 which was +1.3% R).

[Dr. Sivana]

Just take care of Florida for us! I really be shocked if Georgia is not the first state called after the polls close; and it WON’T be for 0bammy!

Indiana and Kentucky always come first. Romney easily in both.

[Crusher138]

I worked for a liberal Democrat Congress-critter from South Florida in the 80’s.

I spent a lot of time with his campaign volunteers who were primarily elderly transplants (permanent residents) or snowbirds (half-year residents) from New York and New Jersey.

They openly discussed how they requested their absentee ballots from “back home” so they could vote in both places. They argued that since they paid taxes in both places, they had a right to vote in both places. This was widely accepted as common practice in the South Florida retirement community.

[Chief901]

The most current RCP Electoral College map show Romney with 206 and Obama with 201. I don’t know where you came up with the other numbers.

[deport]

Interesting comments regarding state versus national polls.

Looking at the Rasmussen polls for today on RCP shows the following:

Missouri
Romney +11
McKaskill +8

Missouri going GOP for President and Democrat for Senator. I know several things can influence that type swing but I still find it interesting.

[Wuli]

I remember reading, on more than one occasion over the years, that one factor in Nixon losing to Kennedy in Illinois in 1960 was that - it was reported - thousands of uncounted ballots were found in the Chicago River.

I remember a very nice young lady radio personality (I forget her name), a lady who worked for Nixon when he was retired - and I remember hearing her say that Nixon chose not to contest the results in Illinois, because even were the allegations against the Daley machine proven true, Illinois 27 electoral votes alone would not have changed the outcome of the election, as Nixon trailed Kennedy by more electoral votes than that.

Someday, maybe the GOP in Illinois can gain enough local support in the State to wrangle a divorce - splitting Chicago off into it’s own state; and gaining two GOP federal senators in the process.

[SunkenCiv]

GGG managers are SunkenCiv, StayAt HomeMother & Ernest_at_the_Beach	join list or digest view topics view or post blog bookmark post a topic subscribe
Thanks SeekAndFind. Just adding to the catalog, not sending a general distribution. To all -- please ping me to other topics which are appropriate for the GGG list.

[Pollster1]

Good analogy, but baseball is scored in runs, not points.

Thanks for the correction. I knew that, or would have if I had been thinking sports instead of politics.

[tophat9000]

So question... after 2000 Bush/Gore many left leaning states made a pledged to always cast their electoral votes to whoever wins the national popular vote...so will this happen?... funny I never agreed win this nationalpopularvote and still don't but look at all these left leaning states that sign on...bet they will never honor it if Romney wins popular vote

http://www.nationalpopularvote.com/map.php

The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in the entire United States. The bill preserves the Electoral College, while ensuring that every vote in every state will matter in every presidential election. The National Popular Vote law has been enacted by states possessing 132 electoral votes — 49% of the 270 electoral votes needed to activate it.

The states VT MD WA IL NJ DC MA CA HI