If The GOP Needed Palin To Stir The Base In 2008, They'll Need Two Palins in 2012

Gallup, the pollster of record, and its chairman, Frank Newport, have some bad news for the Republican party this year – they’re less enthusiastic about the present GOP presidential field than they were about Sen. John McCain in 2008. Fortunately for Republican voters, they already know this.

Tenuous Republican frontrunner Mitt Romney inspires the most confidence of the GOP field this year, though that remains a dubious distinction since his support remains tepid. 35 percent of voters said that they will enthusiastically head to the polls to cast their ballot for the former Massachusetts governor if he becomes the party’s nominee while 42 percent said that they would vote for Romney but just to vote against President Obama.

Interestingly, Romney received precisely the same numbers in a January 30 – February 2, 2008 poll. His chief rival for the 2008 nomination, Sen. John McCain who suffered through a lack of confidence among base Republican voters throughout the primary season, received strong support by comparison. 47 percent of Republicans said they would enthusiastically vote for McCain in 2008 while 35 percent said they would reluctantly vote for him over Obama.

This year, Romney’s chief rivals fare no better. Santorum inspires the confidence of only 34 percent of Republicans while 40 percent would vote for him but unenthusiastically. Newt Gingrich receives the enthusiastic support of only 28 percent while 41 percent would vote for him albeit unenthusiastically.

The “Positive Intensity Score” of the various Republican candidates that have at one point or presently occupy frontrunner status has been gradually waning over the course of the protracted GOP presidential primary.

“In Gallup's early March measurement, Santorum had a Positive Intensity Score of +15, Romney +13, and Gingrich +4,” writes Newport. “By contrast, a number of other potential GOP candidates in 2011 at various times had Positive Intensity Scores in the +20 range, with Herman Cain's +34 at one point the highest measured.”

Republican voters are all too aware of their depressing circumstances. Few GOP voters express unqualified enthusiasm for one candidate or the other (those that do are suspect).

The enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans as the general election approaches still favors Republicans – they are motivated to get Obama out of the White House behind whoever wins the nomination. However, if Obama can overcome the malaise within his own base voters, and the election comes down to turnout, the GOP’s general lack of enthusiasm for their given candidate could be fatal in November.

FLASHBACK:

The McCain/Palin ticket was up ++4 to 10 pts
in some polls, days prior to Election 2008.
So rather than helping the GOP, Romney and
TeamROMNEY and the RNME (Republican National Media Establishment)
decided …to attack Gov. Palin to throw Election2008.

Romney, and the Van der Sloot RNME RINOs for Obama in 2008

Late in October, The American Spectator's The Prowler revealed:
"Former Mitt Romney presidential campaign staffers…
have been involved in spreading anti-Palin spin to reporters, seeking to diminish her standing after the election.
'Sarah Palin is a lightweight, she won't be the first, not even the third, person people will think of when it comes to 2012,'
says one former Romney aide…
'The only serious candidate ready to challenge to lead the Republican Party is Mitt Romney.
"Some former Romney aides were behind the recent leaks to media, including CNN, that Governor Sarah Palin was a 'diva' and was going off message intentionally."

The Palmetto Scoop reported: "One of the first stories to hit the national airwaves was
the claim of a major internal strife between close McCain aides and the folks handling his running mate Sarah Palin."
"I’m told by very good sources that this was indeed the case and that a rift had developed, but it was between Palin’s people and the staffers brought on from the failed presidential campaign of former Gov. Mitt Romney, not McCain aides."
"The sources said nearly 80 percent of Romney’s former staff was absorbed by McCain and these individuals were responsible for what amounts to a premeditated, last-minute sabotage of Palin."
… aides loyal to Romney inside the McCain campaign, said The Scoop, reportedly saw
that Palin would be a serious contender for the Republican nomination in 2012 or 2016, which made her a threat to another presidential quest by Romney.

"These staffers are now out trying to finish her off ….hoping it would ingratiate themselves with Mitt Romney."

"Who's the Palin Leaker from the McCain Campaign?
National Review Online The publication of a Vanity Fair profile of Sarah Palin
appears to have opened old wounds in the McCain campaign.
... the source of the “Diva” leak was Nicolle Wallace’s husband."

"Peeking Out From the McCain Wreckage: Mitt Romney"

"Someone's got to say it: IS MITT ROMNEY RESPONSIBLE FOR OBAMA'S VICTORY?"

"Vanity: Team Romney Sabotaged Palin and Continuing to Do So?"

"Romney Supporters Trashing Palin"

"Romney advisors sniping at Palin?"

“Romney will have to find a conservative to run as his VP to try and keep the conservative voters on board.”

Assuming Romney is the nominee, Rubio would be wise to sit this one out. The US elected a young, inexperienced President in Obama. Rubio would do well to get a full term behind him in the Senate, with a true record of accomplishment as a Senator, before seeking national office. A premature run on a losing ticket could also destroy his future chances. If he works hard to become a player on the national scene in 2016, 2020, and 2024 he will be well positioned to run at the top of the ticket when demographics will give a Hispanic candidate even more appeal.

Rubio has seen how Palin was treated by the party as a newcomer who had not paid her dues. By staying in the Senate and building a strong network of allies inside Washington, Rubio can emerge in future years with strong support inside the beltway which will prove useful when a national campaign gets rough.

Romney’s ego will likely not allow him to put a conservative on his ticket who potentially will outshine him on the campaign trail. If Romney truly seeks to balance his ticket by running someone who can be positioned as a “southern conservative” he may look to Senator Richard Burr of North Carolina. Rationale:
1) North Carolina will be a pivotal state in 2012. The Republicans lost it in 2008. Rush spent much of Friday talking about NC’s importance and Obama’s focus on the state. The Democrat national convention will be in Charlotte in 2012 speaking to how important it is to the Dems. Putting a native son in the VP slot might be enough to overcome the demographic shifts pushing NC from red to blue.
2) Burr is a loyal party man. He was a freshman Congressman during the Gingrich revolution of 1994. He has quietly built his career supporting the party and President Bush. He is trusted by the establishment and based on his past behavior will cheerfully work in a supportive role where he doesn’t outshine the nominee. Karl Rove helped recruit Burr to run for the Senate and helped raise funds for his 2010 reelection campaign.
3) His voting record, with the major exception of voting in favor of repealing “Don’t ask don’t tell” is solidly conservative. The National Journal rates Burr the 7th most conservative Senator, with an 88.7% conservative vote score.
4) He has been married to the same woman for 27 years and there have been no hints of personal scandal. Assuming he and Romney have both been faithful husbands, there will be no personal scandal for the Dems and press to use to divert the attention of the public away from the failures of Obama.
5) He has proven his ability to be reelected both as a Congressman and Senator.
6) His long history in the House and Senate means he knows all of the players and how to get things done. For Romney, who has never served in Washington, Burr’s knowledge of the institutions and people, would be extremely valuable if the ticket is elected.
7) He is well liked and mild mannered. He will not be a polarizing figure to women or independents.
8) His pre political history is solidly middle class, not upper 1%. He was a sales manager for a distributing company for 17 years. His father was a minister. His middle class credentials will be a positive contrast when the Democrats paint Romney as a creature of Wall Street. He will appear to middle class voters as someone who worked hard, paid their dues, and earned his way in life without family money or connections.
9) Burr was reelected in 2010. Should a Romney/Burr ticket lose, the Republicans will not risk losing the NC Senate seat.
10) Burr is relatively unknown on the national stage so his national image can be defined by the campaign based on his record and behavior. It will be difficult for the media to paint him as a controversial figure or extremist.
11) He should have strong appeal to Christian value voters. He has opposed abortion. He attends church regularly. However, as a Methodist he cannot be portrayed by the press as a crazy evangelical.
12) He lined up to endorse Romney in December 2011, before the primary season began.

If Romney is the nominee he will want a safe running mate with solid conservative credentials who will happily play second fiddle. If that running mate also comes from a crucial swing state so much the better. If Rubio is perceived as critical to winning Florida’s 29 electoral votes, and Rubio will accept the position, he might get the nod. If Romney thinks he can win Florida without Rubio on the ticket, he is more likely to go for solid unknown southerner with impeccable credentials such as Richard Burr.

Jan 31, 2012 -- Sarah Palin: No more lies about Newt Gingrich and Ronald Reagan

" Sarah Palin is calling for an end to the “lies” she charges are being told about Newt Gingrich’s history with Ronald Reagan.

“Enough was enough when I started seeing rewritten history about Newt Gingrich’s relationship with Ronald Reagan and the Reagan revolution in the ’70s and in the ’80s,” she told Sean Hannity of Fox News Monday evening.

The former Alaska governor, who has not officially endorsed a candidate but has urged voters to vote for Gingrich, defended the lessons the former House speaker learned from Reagan, including on balancing the budget, reforming welfare, cutting taxes and downsizing the government.

“When I saw that rewritten by some in the establishment, I said, you know, for what it’s worth, I’m going to voice my opposition to that false narrative being rewritten,” Palin said. “That doesn’t mean I’m out there only boosting one candidate. I’m going to continue to say good things about every GOP candidate because anybody is going to be better than Obama, but enough was enough about lies being told about Newt Gingrich and his relationship with Ronald Reagan and within the Reagan Revolution.”

Earlier in the interview, the ex-vice presidential candidates suggested that the lies against Gingrich were largely coming from Mitt Romney’s camp, saying the battle between the two candidates has gotten “vicious.”

“Whether it is a PAC that is producing false narratives in ads or whether it’s false accusing another candidate themselves, they need to be called out. That is the politics of personal destruction,” she said. “It’s not a bad thing to ask for fairness, fairness means just telling the truth and debating relevant ideas, relevant solutions. Not all this personal stuff.” [end text]

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